Why are crowds lower this summer?

[Shanti]

We're headed to WDW in Sep. but I've been stalking live wait times just to get a better idea of what rides develop long lines earliest, as I plan for FP+. I've been surprised how low the wait times in general have been on many of the rides. I've also read many posts commenting on lower crowds this summer.

Why do you all think crowds are lower this year? Has Disney hit a point where it's too expensive for some families? Has the opening of Shanghai Disney taken some of the international visitors away from WDW? What other factors could be contributing to this? I'm just curious!

1. A plethora of Internet resources (including many Dis posts) disparaging summer and touting fall/early winter as the best times to go have helped alter attendance patterns. It's 2016 and tourists' main source of information about vacation destinations is now the Internet.

2. Fall, winter and spring special events (MNSSHP, Food & Wine, MVMCP, RunDisney, Flower and Garden Festival), as well as "free dining", which has traditionally been offered in autumn, has also helped draw families away from summer.

3. Many parents no longer hesitate to take their children out of school for a week+ for a WDW trip. I'm an elementary school teacher and have multiple students out for Disney trips every year.

4. The Brazilian economy recently crashed. Brazilians are a big attendance group for WDW, and they mostly visit in summer.

 

[redsbe]

Friday July 8th 150EDT WDW wait times: PP 60 minutes, Splash 70, TT 80, TSM 60, TofT 50, EE 40
Still seems like a busy day in the parks for mid summer, crazy 9-10 crowd levels NO, but 8?

 

[dreiwhit]

I am quite sure my family is not the only one making similar decisions.

You're not. We've got a trip planned for later this year, mostly just to see and do the things we didn't get to do on our last visit, but it will be our last trip to Disney World for quite some time. For us, a Disney World vacation costs almost double what a normal week long vacation costs, and we can't afford to spend that much for a while.

We had looked into staying on site and getting the free dining plan, but just couldn't afford it. We have an offsite condo for $349 a week, will eat breakfast and dinner there and have lunch in the park at a QS restaurant or bring our lunch with us.

 

[redsbe]

You're not. We've got a trip planned for later this year, mostly just to see and do the things we didn't get to do on our last visit, but it will be our last trip to Disney World for quite some time. For us, a Disney World vacation costs almost double what a normal week long vacation costs, and we can't afford to spend that much for a while.

We had looked into staying on site and getting the free dining plan, but just couldn't afford it. We have an offsite condo for $349 a week, will eat breakfast and dinner there and have lunch in the park at a QS restaurant or bring our lunch with us.

WDW is expensive, sure more that a normal week long vacation, but want are you doing on the vacation that does not include same experience as you are paying for rides, shows, events etc.... I can book a nice hotel and no little in terms of activities (paid) and eat out less during that week and save tons of $$$ compared to WDW, but experience is not the same. WDW food is expensive but so is eating out at counter service/sit down meals for 1-3 times at day anywhere else. Yes you can cut costs for WDW and any other vacation experience, but more important question to ask is whether WDW is still providing value for the experiences you are paying for. Answer to that question will be unique to every guest but is the one you need to ask.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

I think it's the VALUE you get for the price. I spent so much money this past trip. It's most likely our last family trip due to cost. With the kids being Disney adults it really bumped up our dining expenses.

We are planning some all inclusive trips that are cheaper with WDW, including flights. DS goes to WDW for his senior trip and I'll go on a mother/daughter trip around that time.

 

[redsbe]

Most visitors would have committed to their WDW visit (including completing all final payments) before Orlando attack and Gator tragedy and it is not like WDW parks are empty, just perhaps less than crazy 9+ crowd levels summers often bring. I think greater impact is global economy which has been in dire straights in Europe and South American for the last several months (two major areas of WDW international visitors), thus less international visitors (recent US crime in the news is also not helping as for those outside the US their view is that all of US is out of control with crime). Will be interesting to see final 2016 numbers including international visitors to Orlando areas and the US overall.

 

[redsbe]

I think it's the VALUE you get for the price. I spent so much money this past trip. It's most likely our last family trip due to cost. With the kids being Disney adults it really bumped up our dining expenses.

We are planning some all inclusive trips that are cheaper with WDW, including flights. DS goes for his senior trip and I'll go on a mother/daughter trip around that time.

I agree as since 1999 we have taken 9 trips to WDW/DL, but over that 17 year period we also alternated annually with more local trips or other US designations with less travel and hotel costs, also giving us to experience many other great places and sites. Even with WDW/DL we managed costs by short visits (4-5 days), two counter service meals per day only or free dining plan, visiting off season, staying at value or moderate resorts. But as our two kids are now past age with great interest in WDW so looking at other types of family trips, some cheaper others also in the same price range (Hawaii, cruises, Europe..). Frankly even with cost increases I still feel we can manage costs and get value our of WDW visit (D and I were there in June), but the general increase in crowds and more need for planning (FP+) has been greater impact to us in regards to WDW trips and experiences.

 

[STLstone]

I'm only guessing, but I think it's a combination of price and attraction construction timing.

We're on the verge of several major attractions opening in the next few years. I assume there are a lot of Disney visitors that don't go every year, so why would they "waste" a trip this year when they can at least get Avatar (maybe) in the second half of next year?

 

[skywaywaver]

I know it's not scientific at all, but my wife and I made an interesting observation in our trip we just made. We always like to look at the globe when we got off SE to see where people say they are from. Like I said, it's not scientific and by no stretch is it 100% accurate (our kids ride SE in their own car and more than once they have said we live in the Atlantic Ocean) but I do think it shows general trends. We rode SE at least 5 or 6 times between June 17th and July 3rd, it's one of my favorites. We were surprised at what the globe showed. There was a huge concentration of people from Florida with a trickle into south GA and Atlanta, and just as big of a concentration in the mid-Atlantic (PA, NJ, DE, MD). The rest of the US (and the world) was fairly sparsely lit up. In our experience, Florida and the PA area have always been the two highest concentrations listed, but what was notably different was the lack of dots in other places.

One thing I'd be curious about is are the hotels showing a similar decline in crowds? We never stay on property, so we have nothing to compare. But I do read how much it costs to stay on property, even at a "value" resort...which is part of why we don't do it. We can get a house for under $700/week and pack our own food. I wonder if more people will start doing this to save money for a WDW trip.

Really cool point! I was just talking to my mom about how in the second half of August (when we've frequently gone) almost everybody is from the NE.

As for my family, we are still visiting this year, but we have made some changes. In previous years, we have always stayed on site, and bought the dining plan, or got it for "free" with our package. This year, we have rented a house off site, and will be paying for dining out of pocket. We will be eating breakfast at the house most days, and bringing sandwiches with us for lunch many days. Not only is Disney not getting out money for lodging, they will also be losing a significant chunk of our dining purchases. This will save us a good deal of money, and make it possible for us to take a trip that would have been prohibitively expensive for us this year if we had stayed on site and purchased the dining plan.

I am quite sure my family is not the only one making similar decisions.

We were originally looking at staying off property this time for our August trip. However, with a 3 year old that will still nap if she's hot and tired, we figured on-site worked better. On the other hand, with our kids getting older, we're really needing separate spaces for privacy, and Disney doesn't have many options for that, and none that are in our cost range. Off site, I can get a luxurious HUGE house for half of what I'll be paying for a 2 bedroom at SSR, with a private pool. So, we've been tentatively planning a longer trip, like 10 days (though I'm pushing for 2 weeks) in 3 years, staying off site and doing Universal too.

 

[anniemae]

I am not convinced the crowds are THAT much lower. I do think that like a pp stated, some people are skipping yearly trips until more is built. Lots of attractions have closed and much of Disney is under construction. So folks may be waiting for some of the major stuff to be completed.

I think the third TTMM track as well as the 3rd Soarin theater has helped relieve crowds on those rides.

The Frozen ride has pulled most of Epcot to WS I think!

The big rides have had long waits all summer i.e. splash, space mountain, TOT, BTMRR etc.

 

[ejdmomma]

I would also guess with more schools having 1 or 2 week fall breaks, families are choosing fall over hot & humid summer. I know I would pick fall over summer...

 

[Tomh]

WDW is expensive, sure more that a normal week long vacation, but want are you doing on the vacation that does not include same experience as you are paying for rides, shows, events etc

A few years ago, I could compare a 2 week stay at WDW (taking advantage of free dining) with a 2 week stay in the Lake George area, and the cost was pretty similar when we included the cost of all the entertainment and dining we would pay for separately when staying in Lake George. With the recent spate of price increases, and the changes to the free dining promotion making it no longer available to us (it starts too late in the summer for us now), that is no longer the case. I can vacation in Lake George for significantly less than I pay to vacation in Disney World, even counting in the cost of season passes for the Six Flags park there, and what we will pay for mini golf, and boat cruises, gas, shopping, food, hotel etc.

WDW food is expensive but so is eating out at counter service/sit down meals for 1-3 times at day anywhere else

I'm sorry, but there is absolutely NO comparison there! Counter service at Disney World averages nearly $20 per person if you have entree, side (french fries) and a soft drink. I can go to nearly any fast food joint around here (subway, McDonalds, Wendys, Five Guys, KFC etc.) and eat for around $10 to $12 per person.

Table service around here averages around $20 per person, and at Disney World the numbers are more like $30 plus per person, more if you are going to have desert. There is just NO comparison between Disney World prices, and what you pay outside of Disney.[/QUOTE]

 

[bryanb]

Hopefully, the higher prices have reduced the crowds. I hate to say it, because a vacation is darn expensive and I'm not sure how many families do it. But it's simple economics. Disney said they needed a way to smooth out the crowds over the year, and this might be a sign of success.

• As others have said, the weak economy in Brazil is hurting revenue. About 700,000 Brazilians bring their business to Orlando each year, mostly during the summer, when WDW is a rite of passage for many teens.
• Tiered pricing is probably working. Since locals can go anytime, more of them probably will choose the cheaper tickets. Also, general malaise from the recent events in Orlando might cause some people to be in a less celebratory mood.
• Annual pass prices have gone up, although if I lived in Orlando and got the Florida discount, I still think it would be a great value to have access to WDW in my back yard

I don't agree that the average tourist notices cutbacks in any meaningful way, but if you're a frequent visitor you could have less tolerance because of the law of "diminishing returns" (which states that your willingness to pay decreases the more you consume a product/service). All the bellyaching and cynicism about Shanghai and air conditioning belongs to uberfans.

In fact, instead of feeling hurt by cutbacks, here was my experience this summer:

• Shorter lines meant I could get a lot more done.
• Extremely long hours at Animal Kingdom helped spread out the crowds, and meant we could ride the Safari and Expedition Everest over-and-over, and partake in really awesome street entertainment at night
• Didn't expect it so easy to get ADRs and FastPass+ the night before, easier than in the past.
• Cast members still giving great service.

I dislike how expensive the tickets are personally, but it's supply-and-demand. If crowds are a few percentage points less, at least the higher cost is increasing the value of the experience as well.

 

[anniemae]

I think there will be a huge surge in attendance once Avatar Land is finished and DHS is overhauled I think the crowds will surpass what we have seen.

 

[jkh36619]

I wonder the attendance rate of locals and have decided its just too hot right now. I live in on the gulf coast and it is brutal so far this year

 

[Praying Colonel]

...As for my family, we are still visiting this year, but we have made some changes. In previous years, we have always stayed on site, and bought the dining plan, or got it for "free" with our package. This year, we have rented a house off site, and will be paying for dining out of pocket. We will be eating breakfast at the house most days, and bringing sandwiches with us for lunch many days. Not only is Disney not getting out money for lodging, they will also be losing a significant chunk of our dining purchases. This will save us a good deal of money, and make it possible for us to take a trip that would have been prohibitively expensive for us this year if we had stayed on site and purchased the dining plan.

I am quite sure my family is not the only one making similar decisions.

Pretty much us, too. We helped DS get settled for his CP in June, which was really an excuse to use our APs 1 more time before they expire in August. But we stayed offsite for 7 of our 8 nights (stayed onsite the last night to use ME), ate most of our meals offsite and didn't spend much on souvenirs/shopping. We're the AP holders Disney hates, but we would've spent more if they hadn't made everything so bleeping expensive over the last few years. About a 1% chance we'll renew our APs.

 

[AshleeH]

Hmmm. I'm surprised no one thinks that Disney's desire and (from what I saw myself) ability to increase crowds during the rest of the year would naturally draw down the crowds in what is a very hot time of year in Orlando.

Exactly. Disney doesn't want capacity crowds everyday - that's why they're trying to disperse them by making it more appealing to travel in the off season. This is also a huge reason for the price increases on everything - if it was all an affordable, easy trip, parks would be at capacity every single day and everyone would be miserable.

 

[tsme]

Because the south is gripped by the heat from Hades.

Sorry. Couldn't help myself. I'm in South Louisiana & the temperature plus humidity is making being outside unbearable.

 

[disneyfav4ever]

With the rising costs we now go every other year instead of every year. And DD is over three now, so that's an extra park ticket and dining plan we now have to pay for each trip.

 

[STLstone]

I think there will be a huge surge in attendance once Avatar Land is finished and DHS is overhauled I think the crowds will surpass what we have seen.

It would be kind of shocking if this doesn't happen.