To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

Recapping the last week of only biking recovery???

Date - Day - Scheduled Workout (Intervals within desired pace)

3/5/18 - M - OFF
3/6/18 - T - MCR Stage 1A + 50 min biking @ 122 HR avg. (5 intervals of 1 min hard and 2 min easy with HR around 140-142)
3/7/18 - W - 50 min biking @ 110 HR avg.
3/8/18 - R - MCR Stage 1A
3/9/18 - F - 50 min biking @ 112 HR avg.
3/10/18 - Sat - 28 min biking on Zwift @ 102 HR avg. (7.4 miles, 15.8 mph, 145 avg watts)
3/11/18 - Sun - FTP Test (14.6 miles, 45 min, 19.3 mph, 211 avg watts, FTP determined to be 299 watts)

Total (training) duration = 3:43 hours
Total (training) mileage = 59.5 miles (37.5 miles estimated from 150 min + 22 miles from Zwift)
Number of SOS intervals within pace = x/x

Another nice and easy week. Things should start to ramp up this week if I get the all clear in a few hours.
 
MARCH MADNESS 2018!

Time for my annual attempt at winning something in all of the free online bracket games! Simple method for me:

-Use 538's power predictor rankings which are in aggregate score of several sources: ELO, BPI, Sagarin Predictor, Ken Pom, Sokol's LRMC ratings, Moore's computer rankings, selection committee's S-curve, and preseason rankings.
-Input data into an excel file.

Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 10.09.48 AM.png

-Take the difference between two teams PPR to determine the point spread of a basketball game.
-Using a standard deviation of 9.5 points, calculate a normal distribution of possible outcomes.

screen-shot-2017-03-16-at-10-39-45-am-png.225872


-This outputs the % chance that one team would beat another given their PPR.
-Run a simulation (one click on excel) that randomizes the outcomes of all the games based on the % chance one team would beat another.

Screen Shot 2018-03-12 at 10.10.18 AM.png

-Input the data into an online bracket game: ESPN, CBS, Fox, Yahoo, Athlon, Bleacher Report, Jiffy, and Madison.com
-See if I can win anything. You want your best chance of randomly winning something (go with Yahoo and Jiffy).

The system is completely without input from me, but is solely based on the statistical probability of different outcomes. HOWEVER, I can screw up the system by picking and choosing the brackets. Last year, South Carolina ended up in my Final Four model and I kept skipping over those simulated brackets because I didn't think it was possible. Thus, I was influencing... So this year, it will simply be click and input. Whatever each bracket says I'll enter. No picking and choosing.

I ended up with 83 free brackets last year, so let's see if we can win anything this year!
 
Another one here hoping for good news today.

My local running store is giving away free shoes in their bracket challenge. They limit it to one entry per person but now I'm regretting not consulting you first!
 


Another one here hoping for good news today.

:thanks:

My local running store is giving away free shoes in their bracket challenge. They limit it to one entry per person but now I'm regretting not consulting you first!

All I could do for you is come up with a random bracket that is based in stats. Doesn't make it any more or less likely to win. So your guess is as good as mine. My strategy is that enough brackets with stats will hopefully yield one extraordinary bracket based on normal population distribution.
 


What is this math thing in a bracket challenge?

I always go off of the eye test more than anything. I watch a ton of basketball so I see most of the teams and will do some homework on the lesser knowns. Disappointing to not have a Wisconsin based team in the tournament this year.

Like John I also run a $5 pool if anyone is interested.

http://games.espn.com/tournament-ch...1CNUVDLUYzNzUwODE2RkRDMn0=&invitesource=email
 
Yay!!! Congrats on the all clear!

:thanks:


:thanks:

Another good Zwift article for you: http://www.slowtwitch.com/Indoor_Training/Zwift_Welcome_to_Watopia_6642.html

Also, put your money where your math is and enter my pool :)

http://www.thesengers.net/pool

Thanks for the article!

I'll have to chew over entering the pool. The stats only make a few good brackets and don't have any clue which is better then any other.

What is this math thing in a bracket challenge?

I always go off of the eye test more than anything. I watch a ton of basketball so I see most of the teams and will do some homework on the lesser knowns. Disappointing to not have a Wisconsin based team in the tournament this year.

Like John I also run a $5 pool if anyone is interested.

http://games.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?redirect=tcmen://x-callback-url/showGroup?groupID=2249267&ex_cid=tcmen2018_email&groupID=2249267&inviteuser=ezM5RjU1MEM5LTcxRTctNEYzQS1CNUVDLUYzNzUwODE2RkRDMn0=&invitesource=email

LOL we've all got our own methods. G believes Buffalo is the favorite, but gets upset by Houston in the Elite 8.

Glad to see you're back to full health! Good luck in your build-up to Chicago!

:thanks:

Yay for the ALL CLEAR!

:thanks:

The left leg (other leg) actually hurts right now, but that's because the Doctor squeezed my legs so hard. Ack!
 
All clear!!! Time to hit the ground running! Doctor likes the 6 week plan and we'll go from there. Only a very small chance that it's not fully healed, but we both feel confident.
Great news on the all clear!

Here's my bracket advice: Let the Wookiee Win. Granted there would have to be a Wookiee in the bracket, but I digress. I only have time to follow the tournament until BYU is out. And for 3 years and counting now, BYU isn't even in the tournament. So my bracket would have BYU winning it all because I will not pick against them no matter what I think will happen.
 
Great news on the all clear!

Here's my bracket advice: Let the Wookiee Win. Granted there would have to be a Wookiee in the bracket, but I digress. I only have time to follow the tournament until BYU is out. And for 3 years and counting now, BYU isn't even in the tournament. So my bracket would have BYU winning it all because I will not pick against them no matter what I think will happen.

Thanks! I unfortunately know the feeling for the first time in my WI fan lifetime.
 

GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE

Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.

Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!





Latest posts

Top