Tired of SSR being blamed

[crvetter]

Re Poly bungalows, not nearly as big a problem as Copper Creek cabins. See this below which was posted elsewhere:

The Poly bungalows do not impact as much as the cabins at CCV there are more studios at Poly. DVC really did do the owners no good with those cabins at Copper Creek- huge availability problem. I said it would be ages ago when they started selling it, it was just a mathematical calculation- it did not make sense. I am still convinced those cabins and bungalows are about the most profitable real estate on earth. I would be surprised if they cost more than $250 to build, but let's be really generous and say $500k. The total points for the cabins are 41,350 a year. What was the average selling price? Say $170? That is over $7 million per cabin- can you imagine?
Lets look at it a bit further. There are 3,321,966 points in total at Copper Creek. There are 26 cabins. So just under a third of the total points at Copper Creek are on these cabins alone (26 x 41350= 1,075,100.)
There are 42 studios. There are also 36 2 bed lock offs, so potentially some of those will go as studios- say half. So maybe there are a total of 60 studios at any one time. Not that many really. A studio costs 6243 points per annum. So if we assume half of 2 bed lockoffs go as studios (could be more or less but wont be far off), total points allocated to studios are 374,580 points a year. So the points available for studios are a fraction of what those cabins are. Imagine if instead they had built studios, there could have been over three times as many as there are now.
Let's look at square footage. A studio is 338 square feet. So DVC sell 18.47 points per square foot for a studio. Now a cabin is 1,737 square feet. They sell 23.80 points per square footage of cabin. Not only that, but if they are not booked up at 60 days, DVC can take them as 'breakage'. Initially this money goes to paying towards DVC but tops out at a sum I cannot remember, then that goes into profits for DVC. Any wonder on these maths they like to build cabins!?
Now let us compare to Poly. Poly has a massive 360 studios and only 20 bungalows. So an unbelievable 300 more studios than Copper Creek and 6 less cabins/ bungalows. This will hopefully explain it very clearly why studio availability has not been as bad at Poly- despite those bungalows often being unbooked at Poly.
The issues at Copper Creek will not go away because of the maths above.

I agree with your assessment when you are considering only the home resort booking period and studio strain. However, I think the number of rooms matter less and purely the number of points per cabin or bungalow matter to get a better feel about their push on the 7 month availability. I would say CCV's cabins are filling certain times of the year before 7 months whereas the bungalows are filling much less times of the year. So at 7 months it comes down to how many Cabin or Bungalow points are leaving the resort and it appears that the Bungalows (based on availability and cost per night) are pushing more points out. Perhaps people shop for studios from CCV but some that own PVB are shopping for 2 bedrooms at 7 months too (it's a theory on the boards as to why the resale value is sort of depressed at PVB)..

 

[Wakey]

Have you been able to get GFV the first week in December - even in a one bedroom. Or a room at GCV seven months out when you want it? BWV standard view one bedrooms over Food and Wine? VAKL Concierge rooms? If you are never going to want these things - you have a better crystal ball than most people who want what they want when they want it. Forty years is a long time for ownership. Disney availability patterns will change, as will what you want.

The problem is that no one knows what they want twenty years from now. Maybe you will at that point only want studios. Or need two bedrooms. And if you aren't happy with your home resort, you'll be unsatisfied with the product. Its my opinion, and its just an opinion, that you plan for the worst and hope for the best. Planning for the worst isn't assuming that you will always want one bedrooms and that they will always be available.

A somewhat valid point but I would argue against some of it. I think the person you were responding to was pointing out, quite correctly, that there is not much of a problem getting 1 beds. Many posts extolling lack of availability and buy where you want to stay, are from people who only ever book studios.

As to your questions above, you have picked the hardest to get rooms, which could only possibly be obtained by an owner at that resort- so to lump all of those examples together as an argument (in a way, I know what you are saying) in response to sleep around points is a bit of a misnomer because any owner anywhere would have to buy at every resort you mention to guarantee those rooms. I agree if you must have one of those examples, buy there, no question.

The one bed sleep around person probably likes SSR and doesnt mind staying there- that has to be borne in mind. But they really do not have to. For example, I often read how difficult Beach Club is to get. It simply is not in 1 beds, even often in very busy times. It was wide open every time I looked for Xmas. Boardwalk- I have had standard view, but pool / garden is easy. AKV value, I have been able to get in the past no problem. All animal kingdom no issue.

The 1 bed sleep arounder doesnt mind if the most in demand view cannot be got, because they bought cheaper points and went into it with eyes wide open usually. Yes BLT on NYE may be nice, but for what I paid for my points- Boulder Ridge, Beach Club, Boardwalk etc will do (I actually got BLT this year BTW but it's hard to get at NY). Heck SSR will be fine. And if I switch to studios, I will take what i can get and stay at SSR, or I will simply sell the contract. OK I may not get Beach Club at the peak week in Food and Wine, I will book Poly instead. No biggie. VGF I have never had a problem getting but the points are a little too high for my taste. I will let you know how I get on at VGC for summer but I guarantee I have much more of a chance than the person who bought enough points for a studio where they thought they wanted to stay.

"The problem is that no one knows what they want twenty years from now. Maybe you will at that point only want studios."

I do know I want more studios in 20 years as it will be me and my wife. I know then I would rather be at Disney Springs area for shopping and eating and I may not even have park tickets. I may enjoy overnight trips to Vero etc. This is when I am planning to come a month in winter when retired so I will need cheap points (SSR standard) and will take an odd night here and there. So I at least have thought what I want in 20 years and my SSR sleep arounds fit perfectly- good availability now and I stay all over no problem, with my long term plan as stated.

 

[crisi]

What assurance do you have that Disney won't change the point structure to make one bedrooms more attractive? We all know that's what they should do with point reallocation. And that WILL change things and make those in demand one bedrooms harder to book. This is about the long term...

 

[SL6827]

What assurance do you have that Disney won't change the point structure to make one bedrooms more attractive? We all know that's what they should do with point reallocation. And that WILL change things and make those in demand one bedrooms harder to book. This is about the long term...

Well I don't think I see a problem with that. The studios are the most in demand and the one bedrooms are the least in demand. Raising the studios and lowering the one bedrooms seems like the right thing to do, not raising both the studios and the one bedrooms. Which is what I think they will try again in the future.

 

[zavandor]

Well I don't think I see a problem with that. The studios are the most in demand and the one bedrooms are the least in demand. Raising the studios and lowering the one bedrooms seems like the right thing to do, not raising the studios and raising the one bedrooms. Which is what I think they will try again in the future.

I agree it would be the right thing to do for the system. I own another timeshare and 1BR are only 40% more expensive than studios, the result is that studios are the least popular room category. Maybe an happy medium?
However, I'm not so sure they CAN do that. My interpretation of the POS is that they can only reallocate the seasons, not points across different timeshare units. (and I think that's the Florida law as well). But there are multiple interpretations of the rules. DVC in the earliest years never reallocated points across units (e.g.: near Hospitality House and Boardwalk views are just booking categories and they do not cost more). Then they "decided" they could do it and made the THV cost more. Then, since no one complained, we gave them an inch and they tried to take a mile with the lockoff premium increase.

 

[SL6827]

I agree it would be the right thing to do for the system. I own another timeshare and 1BR are only 40% more expensive than studios, the result is that studios are the least popular room category. Maybe an happy medium?
However, I'm not so sure they CAN do that. My interpretation of the POS is that they can only reallocate the seasons, not points across different timeshare units. (and I think that's the Florida law as well). But there are multiple interpretations of the rules. DVC in the earliest years never reallocated points across units (e.g.: near Hospitality House and Boardwalk views are just booking categories and they do not cost more). Then they "decided" they could do it and made the THV cost more. Then, since no one complained, we gave them an inch and they tried to take a mile with the lockoff premium increase.

Ok, what did they do with the THVs? Did they raise the points with them without lowering them on any of the other units or what? I am a bit confused here? Thanks.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok, what did they do with the THVs? Did they raise the points with them without lowering them on any of the other units or what? I am a bit confused here? Thanks.

They were originally had the same points as 2 bedrooms and were marketed that way.

When it become difficult to book year round, even at 11 months, they adjusted by raising those and lowering 2 bedrooms.

 

[zavandor]

They were originally had the same points as 2 bedrooms and were marketed that way.

When it become difficult to book year round, even at 11 months, they adjusted by raising those and lowering 2 bedrooms.

3 bedrooms for the cost of 2 bedrooms.
As soon as SSR was sold out, they increased their cost.
That's probably when they started thinking they could get away with everything.

 

[Sandisw]

3 bedrooms for the cost of 2 bedrooms.
As soon as SSR was sold out, they increased their cost.
That's probably when they started thinking they could get away with everything.

But didn’t they at least take points from the 2 bedrooms to offset it? Or am I remembering wrong? I think what they did at SSR was within the rules of raising in one area and lower in the other.

 

[Heather07438]

THV change makes some sense to me. If they cost the same points as 2BR but were immensely more popular, raising THV and lowering 2BR could be in the owner's interest.

It may cost a bit more for THV but it could help availability. At least now if it doesn't help your availability and you have to 'settle' for 2BR, you save points and feel less ripped off in that position.

 

[Wakey]

What assurance do you have that Disney won't change the point structure to make one bedrooms more attractive? We all know that's what they should do with point reallocation. And that WILL change things and make those in demand one bedrooms harder to book. This is about the long term...

They may (leaving aside the legal arguments as to whether they can, there’s a school or thought they can’t, only really explored during the lock off premium debacle), but I believe not to the extent it would make much difference. DVC owners are value seekers, and the 1 beds are currently twice the price of studios, sometimes slightly more. They’d have to do a very significant points re allocation to make a massive impact, and that would result in so many extra points being loaded onto studios that the studio bookers would be in uproar.
Ideally I’d like to see a points re allocation because what I believe is feasible would result in costs going down and demand only slightly increasing, that would suit me.
But it may never happen- remember according to DVD 1 beds are some of the most in demand rooms, and as such, they need to put the points up! Yes we all had a laugh about that one.

 

[SL6827]

But didn’t they at least take points from the 2 bedrooms to offset it? Or am I remembering wrong? I think what they did at SSR was within the rules of raising in one area and lower in the other.

Exactly, so what did Disney do wrong?

 

[Sandisw]

Exactly, so what did Disney do wrong?

Nothing when they changed it for SSR.. I think for 2020 charts, it was a questionable move and that the points for the resort, due to the lock off premium changes, increased points for the resort, which is not allowed.

 

[DaveNan]

Businesses are now walking? Really?

It isn't all studios, but for BWV STD and AKV value it appears some members are walking reservations 2-3 months through the entire Fall Frenzy to be able to rent reservations for up to $24 per point in Nov/Dec. Also the defintion of "business" is tough. It appears to be members who have points for the express purpose of renting them. They make desireable room reservations, advertise them in rental social media sites and let the renter pick the dates and walk up to those dates. But they likely have less than 20 reservations a year, so per the DVC standard it is not a "business". They are working within the rules, everyone esle has the same opportunity to book early and walk, and feel there is nothing wrong with the behavior (meets the DVC rules).

 

[SL6827]

Nothing when they changed it for SSR.. I think for 2020 charts, it was a questionable move and that the points for the resort, due to the lock off premium changes, increased points for the resort, which is not allowed.

Right, with them reallocating the THVs, there was nothing wrong done there, but trying to increase the lock off premium for pure profit was wrong on all accounts. But I bet they get their ducks in a better line next time.

 

[SL6827]

It isn't all studios, but for BWV STD and AKV value it appears some members are walking reservations 2-3 months through the entire Fall Frenzy to be able to rent reservations for up to $24 per point in Nov/Dec. Also the defintion of "business" is tough. It appears to be members who have points for the express purpose of renting them. They make desireable room reservations, advertise them in rental social media sites and let the renter pick the dates and walk up to those dates. But they likely have less than 20 reservations a year, so per the DVC standard it is not a "business". They are working within the rules, everyone esle has the same opportunity to book early and walk, and feel there is nothing wrong with the behavior (meets the DVC rules).

Ya, I can see why some people who own DVC and would love to change up at the 7th month mark and can't, would really get POd about such. But as long as it is legal and doesn't draw attention I guess it is just one of the things about DVC that sucks. But for $24 a point reservation, are they really saving any money?

 

[DaveNan]

Ya, I can see why some people who own DVC and would love to change up at the 7th month mark and can't, would really get POd about such. But as long as it is legal and doesn't draw attention I guess it is just one of the things about DVC that sucks. But for $24 a point reservation, are they really saving any money?

Compared to std rental rates for more premium views, no. Compared to rack rate for hotels, yes.

 

[Sandisw]

Compared to std rental rates for more premium views, no. Compared to rack rate for hotels, yes.

I think that if someone has a discount, the cash rate might be closer than you think, While it still might be slightly cheaper, you give up a lot for DVC in terms of cancellation.

I just can’t believe at $24/pt that you have takers..but obviously there are!

 

[sethschroeder]

I just can’t believe at $24/pt that you have takers..but obviously there are!

They don't state its $24/pt this is how it would look:
December 4-8 for ROR Grand Opening - BWV Studio $1104 (Disney sold out but normally $2232)

Heck they might be charging more for my example.

 

[crisi]

Nothing when they changed it for SSR.. I think for 2020 charts, it was a questionable move and that the points for the resort, due to the lock off premium changes, increased points for the resort, which is not allowed.

Which, if they keep the overall points for the resort the same, increase the cost of studios, and lower it for one bedrooms....that would not create legal problems, they are standing on two precedents - at SSR twice and at BWV- balancing room types and not seasons, and that would decrease the demand for studios, increase it for one bedrooms, and drive people who bought for studios to buy more points for the same trip.