READ POST 1 & 2 FIRST-Rise of the Resistance Boarding Group Planning and Information-*No Spoilers*

[SweetJulia23]

So in general if you’re there at opening you’ll get a non backup boarding group? (Assuming the app works)

Would it be possible for people to list the boarding group they got along with the phone they used? Are the newest phones getting lower groups?

 

[gtitan21]

HS has max cap at around 75k.
Let's say after RoR settles down it averages: 120 ppl per BG, 120 BGs and 50 back-ups.
That's about 14k guests guaranteed rides, and 6k who have a decent shot.
1/3 of max cap arrives, so 25k ppl out of 75k possible.
There are 20k slots to give 25k ppl, so a 4 out of 5 chance to succeed.

Let's take that to 4 time windows-
Park open: 25k guests there, 5k get a BG. 1 in 5 chance to succeed.
12:30p: 45k guests minus 5k with BGs, so 40k and 5k get BG#2. 1 in 8 chance.
3:30p: 55k guests minus 10k with BGs, so 45k and 5k get BG#3. 1 in 9 chance.
5:30p: 45k guests minus 15k with BGs, so 30k and 5k get BG#4. 1 in 6 chance.
Attending all 4 windows, you now only have a 3 out 5 chance to succeed. For every window you missed, your chances go down further. For guests who are trying during the 2 midday windows, they'll likely have to show up to HS 3 or 4 days before success at BG.

it wouldn’t be a 3 of 5 chance, because the odds of getting a BG is whatever the odds are at that time. If you flip a coin and it lands heads 99 times in a row, it’s still a 50/50 chance of landing heads the 100th time.

 

[Heather07438]

MFSR didn't have BGs or fastpass and everyone said it was a good thing because it kept the line reasonable.

Those 45min MFSR lines were an anomaly. This morning (supposed 'off-season') it clocked a 240 minute wait.

There were reasons that MFSR had short waits outside of no FP. HS had a 3hr EEMH for 3 months straight which had the biggest effect. Plus, the fall had much lower attendance compared to after RoR opening.

 

[Heather07438]

it wouldn’t be a 3 of 5 chance, because the odds of getting a BG is whatever the odds are at that time. If you flip a coin and it lands heads 99 times in a row, it’s still a 50/50 chance of landing heads the 100th time.

That's true but generally adding up the chances gets an idea of expectations. The main point that I struggle to make is that 'BG windows' will reduce our chances. By a huge margin

And they will increase the number of days/attempts needed.

ETA: It's more like averaging those chances... even more dismal. I couldn't even imagine having to deal with that.

 

[yulilin3]

So in general if you’re there at opening you’ll get a non backup boarding group? (Assuming the app works)

Would it be possible for people to list the boarding group they got along with the phone they used? Are the newest phones getting lower groups?

People have been posting daily about phone and bg number, just read the thread. And post one has the times bg have filled for each day since opening

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think the big takeaway from these past 2 days is that if you’re inside the park when the park opens, you’re getting a regular BG. It shouldn’t take more than a couple minutes to secure one. Even if the BGs dropped to 114, 5 minutes seems like forever compared to the mornings they maxed out in seconds. Even more so that back ups are lasting until 9am.

this is the difference between “peak” and “non peak”. Which in my eyes, I’m more than happy with according to this small sample size.

It really doesn't take more than 10 seconds to get a bg, of course as long as the app is working properly

That is the part that is still stressing me out about our upcoming trip. When it seemed like it was pretty consistent that you had 20-30 minutes I felt better but now that it seems like 5-10 will be the norm (maybe? possibly?), that puts back into play that you have tech issues and they don't get resolved before all the primary BGs are gone

 

[gtitan21]

That's true but generally adding up the chances gets an idea of expectations. The main point that I struggle to make is that 'BG windows' will reduce our chances. By a huge margin

And they will increase the number of days/attempts needed.

number of attempts would increase, but duration of each attempt would drastically reduce. I would prefer one 5 minute window, as oppose to 4 75 second windows. It leaves very little time to react to a tech glitch. With 5 minutes, there’s time for several refreshes, force closes, and a better chance to find a CM

 

[Heather07438]

number of attempts would increase, but duration of each attempt would drastically reduce. I would prefer one 5 minute window, as oppose to 4 75 second windows. It leaves very little time to react to a tech glitch. With 5 minutes, there’s time for several refreshes, force closes, and a better chance to find a CM

Very valid point. I didn't even take that into consideration. Each staggered window of opportunity would be gone in seconds due to demand/capacity.

 

[Duck143]

Used WiFi and yes much better reception there than we had on Toy Story side Saturday. I opened the app at 5 seconds to 7 and clicked through each screen. Others in my group used data only and I got in first. Probably less than half the crowd of Saturday today too.

Thank you. I think we'll head over to that corner. I'll try on wifi and DH can try data. We're going on 1/18, so we'll see how crowded it is. It's just the 2 of us, so I don't mind having to go back later if we get a late BG....just want to score one!

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Very valid point. I didn't even take that into consideration. Each staggered window of opportunity would be gone in seconds due to demand/capacity.

and judging by way things seem to work in the universe, I am sure it would be that some family that just strolls in later in the day checks and is able to get something no big deal and then another family that has been there since dawn tries every time and is shut out and now disappointed multiple times

 

[gtitan21]

and judging by way things seem to work in the universe, I am sure it would be that some family that just strolls in later in the day checks and is able to get something no big deal and then another family that has been there since dawn tries every time and is shut out and now disappointed multiple times

kind of the way it could be during peak times anyway. First in line who got to the park at 3am could miss out on a BG, where someone who arrives 5 minutes from RD and is in the park when they go live could get one. The beauty though is that all can go on with their day knowing if they have a BG or not.

 

[NYHeel]

what fps do you have?

I've got Star Tours at about 8:15, SDD at 9:15 and Muppets at 10:15. The goal was to get through the 3 fast passes as quickly as possible so that I can start searching for more fast passes to ToT and RnRC.

That's my basic current plan. Try and head to Toy Story Land at park open to ride TSMM, then AS2, use the FP for SDD, head to Star Tours (figured I wouldn't need the FP I had earlier), scan in at Muppets and even watch the show while looking for more FPs. Check out the other shows while waiting for FPs to the other rides and head to Galaxy's Edge for Smugglers Run and RotR when needed. Capping off the day with Fantasmic because we've never seen it due to weather on our last trip. Was hoping we'd be able to leave the park for a few hours to relax a bit but am ok if we can't.

Edited to add, this is next Wednesday, 1/15 so it's an 8:00 open.

 

[gtitan21]

They are at BG 100 right now as of 1:33pm. On pace to get through regular BG by like 3. That leaves about 3 hours for backups.

 

[BluePhoneBox]

Hi! First and foremost, I want to say Thank You to everyone that has contributed to this thread. I've been reading for the past few days and it's been SUPER insightful to see how the BG process works. Since RotR opened, I've worried that we'd be totally unable to ride it based on the popularity. With all this information, I now know it's very achievable.

Now, to the root of my post... I've managed to convince the rest of my family that we need to be up at 6am in order to make it to the DHS parking lot by 7, so we can be through bag check / turnstyles early. We get to visit the park on both 1/27 and 1/29 and plan to RD both days.

They've been great sports about that, but I know that when we're actually standing around in the park for an hour, doing nothing but waiting... it's going to be taxing on both my parents, and my 9 year old nephew

Is there a good place for them to get coffee/hot chocolate and a snack once we've been admitted through the gates while we wait to get into GE?
I'd imagine that Starbucks is going to be overflowing with people, so alternative suggestions would be greatly appreciated!

 

[SweetJulia23]

People have been posting daily about phone and bg number, just read the thread. And post one has the times bg have filled for each day since opening

I’ve seen the chart with BG times but I want to know an estimate of what percentage of people trying right at opening get a guaranteed group vs backup. It may be irrelevant for me though because my day is scheduled for a 9:00 open and everything will change anyway. Hopefully they’ll move it earlier because I can’t imagine how many more people will be there at 9 than at 7.

 

[Bryan Burmeister]

it wouldn’t be a 3 of 5 chance, because the odds of getting a BG is whatever the odds are at that time. If you flip a coin and it lands heads 99 times in a row, it’s still a 50/50 chance of landing heads the 100th time.

Right, but the odds of getting at least one heads on 3 flips is 7/8......

 

[AuntieK]

We left Kidani via Uber a little before 6. Hung out on a bench on Sunset. The Sprint iPhone beat the Verizon Android phone. BG 83. Called at 12:25, off at 1:15. Thank you to everyone in this thread.

 

[mandis77]

Thank you. I think we'll head over to that corner. I'll try on wifi and DH can try data. We're going on 1/18, so we'll see how crowded it is. It's just the 2 of us, so I don't mind having to go back later if we get a late BG....just want to score one!

What's the wifi/data connection closer to Sunset Blvd? Is that were the bulk of the people are hanging out? We are hoping to RD RNR followed by ToT (if my daughter's get up the nerve!) before heading to our SDD FP.

 

[mandis77]

We left Kidani via Uber a little before 6. Hung out on a bench on Sunset. The Sprint iPhone beat the Verizon Android phone. BG 83. Called at 12:25, off at 1:15. Thank you to everyone in this thread.

how far down are you allowed on Sunset before RD?

 

[PendingPeril]

I've got Star Tours at about 8:15, SDD at 9:15 and Muppets at 10:15. The goal was to get through the 3 fast passes as quickly as possible so that I can start searching for more fast passes to ToT and RnRC.

That's my basic current plan. Try and head to Toy Story Land at park open to ride TSMM, then AS2, use the FP for SDD, head to Star Tours (figured I wouldn't need the FP I had earlier), scan in at Muppets and even watch the show while looking for more FPs. Check out the other shows while waiting for FPs to the other rides and head to Galaxy's Edge for Smugglers Run and RotR when needed. Capping off the day with Fantasmic because we've never seen it due to weather on our last trip. Was hoping we'd be able to leave the park for a few hours to relax a bit but am ok if we can't.

Edited to add, this is next Wednesday, 1/15 so it's an 8:00 open.

This is almost exactly my plan, except I have a 10pm Star Tours and noon show fastpass. Also going to fill time by doing the Vader and BB-8 meet (is Chewy not there anymore?). As someone who needs to have everything planned for these days, I hate the amount of improvisation needed with boarding groups.