If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[e_yerger]

I don't disagree. There are plenty of things "open" now, adding more may not make a difference.
Right now in NY 100% of non-essential workers are supposed to be working from home.
However there are tons of essential workers already out there. Will letting others go to their workplace make a huge difference in terms of the spread?

Hello, may I please offer you this info graphic for reassurance that people staying home will help?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

 

[godisney14]

Since this keeps getting lost among locked threads:
CFR is not a static number, especially while in the midst of an outbreak. It cannot be fully assessed until aggregate data is available. There are way too many factors which affect the CFR including location and demographics of the infected population. Most people are throwing around data and statistics like they have any idea what it means. The fact is all the data we have right now is snapshot. It only represents what is happening at this point in time. It is a fallacy to state as fact that this virus is XX times more deadly than this other virus without the full extent of data, which is still being collected.

Trust me, I’ve been trying to preach the same thing about statistics. I’ve made many posts explaining the differences and fallacies of each measure, and how they’re being incorrectly reported. In fact, if someone can make one of those posts of mine a sticky, maybe it will at least help a few who are willing to digest it.

My comment about how CFR is much higher comes from what available information we have from China since they have a big enough “n” and time that has passed to make a relevant inference.

 

[mjkacmom]

Comments like this don't help create constructive discourse. These "idiots" are people who are trying to live their lives and cope with a stressful situation as best they can. For many, it may be that these social circles are all they have. For others, they may be in denial. But whatever the case they are someone's child, brother, sister...and perhaps their home situation is not as kind and loving as yours. I would guess most people don't take too well to being locked in an apartment all day when they've lived their whole lives on the streets.

So be careful before you pass judgement on "those idiots". There's more to their stories than you know.

I don’t care what their situations are, being told to stay away from other people is not the end of the world. My adult son and daughter are not here, my daughter is driving 40 here to pick up something she needs, she’s not coming in the house because the people she is staying with asked her not too. I miss my son and won’t see him for weeks. My IL’s are in their 90’s and alone, it stinks we can’t visit. And I do think people in denial are idiots, dangerous idiots.

 

[godisney14]

I don't disagree. There are plenty of things "open" now, adding more may not make a difference.
Right now in NY 100% of non-essential workers are supposed to be working from home.
However there are tons of essential workers already out there. Will letting others go to their workplace make a huge difference in terms of the spread?

Given what we know is the R0 of the virus, and when enough time passes, yes, there will be a big difference. We need to flatten it now ASAP, and then try to do a controlled relaxation to sustain a smaller rate until a vaccine or anti-viral is approved. Otherwise, you’ll just be starting over or hoping for herd immunity.

 

[Notrealname]

Sorry about the font, copied and pasted. Can’t figure out how to fix it

 

[Hikergirl]

Hello, may I please offer you this info graphic for reassurance that people staying home will help?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif[/URL

 

[Hikergirl]

Hello, may I please offer you this info graphic for reassurance that people staying home will help?

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

We are talking about economic stability.
Some of us feel that is important enough to look at all data, but don't worry that includes cute graphics

 

[sam_gordon]

My comment about how CFR is much higher comes from what available information we have from China since they have a big enough “n” and time that has passed to make a relevant inference.

I thought we weren't supposed to believe numbers from China.

 

[e_yerger]

We are talking about economic stability.
Some of us feel that is important enough to look at all data, but don't worry that includes cute graphics

Ahh yes the economy. Much more important than the lives of our loved ones. What will do without the stock market.

Sorry not sorry, I care more about the lives of my best friend, grandparents, and cousins who are at risk than the economy.

 

[Jennasis]

I curious where you expect for EVERY family to be able to get food for two weeks at the same time. Pickings have been mighty slim in grocery stores as it is.

I dont think any of the shelterin place orders have disallowed food shopping. Do people need more food to sit at home as opposed to going to work?

 

[sam_gordon]

Ahh yes the economy. Much more important than the lives of our loved ones. What will do without the stock market.

Sorry not sorry, I care more about the lives of my best friend, grandparents, and cousins who are at risk than the economy.

So you'd rather have millions of people (including children) homeless? OK.

 

[sam_gordon]

I dont think any of the shelterin place orders have disallowed food shopping. Do people need more food to sit at home as opposed to going to work?

People need to make up their mind... do they want people to stay home or it's ok to go out (grocery shoppping)?

 

[Hikergirl]

Ahh yes the economy. Much more important than the lives of our loved ones. What will do without the stock market.
Sorry not sorry, I care more about the lives of my best friend, grandparents, and cousins who are at risk than the economy.

You should go make yourself some tea, get outside and enjoy the sunshine.
Message boards can be filled with complex discussions that require logical thought. Some people can't handle that because they are too emotional.

 

[Deploraboo]

People staying at home will also cause mass transit systems to collapse due to lack of revenue and failure to service their massive debt load. Owned by the way by public pension plans and 401ks.

not to mention the other consumer dependent businesses that will collapse.

 

[e_yerger]

So you'd rather have millions of people (including children) homeless? OK.

Do you have any statistical proof that millions of people would become homeless?

Also, it's been proven that the federal government has been able to provide services and help the American people in ways that it previously said it would not. $1200 checks to every citizen? Waiver of student loan interests? Waiver of mortgage payments & extend loan timelines to accommodate? Would you like to also discuss the $1.5 trillion that was injected into the stock market last week? Wouldn't it have been better if that money was given to the American people so that way we can spend it in at our local businesses and continue to pay our rent and utility bills? If the American people can not pay their bills, then the economy will collapse. But when businesses like Amazon are looking for hand outs, it's insanity. Don't help the big guys, help the little guys.

And we can help the little guys while all non-essentials stay at home and limit the spread and death that COVID-19 is wreaking on this world.

 

[Deploraboo]

Free Mickey bars for every man woman and child!

 

[Notrealname]

Maybe watch
https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-vide...kCumysGPnkwzhYWFyKa7KQGH_6cpU6qI9laFfY9Arjji8it was a couple days ago . . .

 

[shelemm]

You mean like this one?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020...e-shutdown-approach-may-be-imperfect/#slide-1
Or this one?

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2...laureate-who-predicted-chinas-trajectory.html
"Scientists" and "Healthcare Professionals" are just as divided on what to do as the people in this (or any other) forum. I would guess you mean the scientists and healthcare workers that share your point of view.

The first link is from a surgeon writing in the National Review, Not an epidemiologist. Sorry, but the guy is an idiot with an axe to grind. We all know already that, per incident, it is not as lethal as other outbreaks. But it is out of control because people can carry it for so long without detection plus it is a very robust virus. The epidemiologists say it is not going to die out like SARS which was far more lethal. We don't know, at this point, that it's seasonal. it might not be. So that's why it's a pandemic. It is out of control and we have no way to stop it. Honestly, typical shoddy 'journalism' from the National Review.

In the second article, this guy is legit.... here is a very important quote: "The goal needs to be better early detection—not just through testing but perhaps with body-temperature surveillance, which China is implementing—and immediate social isolation."

That is exactly what everyone is saying. Testing and isolation. But we are so far from that right now. Let's get that in place and maybe the length of time we need to 'lockdown' can be limited. That is why we need nationally-organized distribution of testing and other health supplies going to where they are needed most first. Until then, lack of movement can slow things down although we've already lost valuable time.

I agree with the executive who said his surgical masks should not be on the shelves, they should go first to the health care professionals who are taking care of COVID and other patients.

 

[Sarah'sMomfrom PA]

My daughter is a Pharmacist in Virginia. She has people coming in droves wanting to get the vaccine for the Coronavirus (and she explains that there is no such thing but these people heard a rumor that there is a vaccine available) or even to the point of asking her to call their doctor to have him order the malaria drug and Z pack for them. What amazes her is that these same people actually refuse the annual flu shot (that she suggests that everyone gets) because they don't trust the vaccine yet they are willing to inject a coronavirus vaccine (if there was one) that has not even been developed or tested into their arms. She is just amazed at this!

 

[godisney14]

I thought we weren't supposed to believe numbers from China.

Sure, there is argument whether they are accurately reporting, and how accurate their data collection is to begin with as well. (Same could be said for any country right now.)

But, even if the numbers reported are 10-fold different from the true numbers, that still doesn’t place vehicle crash mortality any where close to the mortality of COVID-19.