For Those of You Waiting to Buy….

[Robbie Cottam]

I think more people tend to sell around the holidays to avoid paying the annual dues.

Interesting, but if you are selling, someone is buying ? No?

 

[Paul Stupin]

Interesting, but if you are selling, someone is buying ? No?

Not sure if additional contracts on the market correlates to increased sales. Possibly!

 

[Robbie Cottam]

if they don’t sell buy Jan 15 you pay the tax, defeats the stated purpose of selling to avoid the tax

 

[Paul Stupin]

if they don’t sell buy Jan 15 you pay the tax, defeats the stated purpose of selling to avoid the tax

Buyers will usually reimburse seller the dues if the points haven’t been used, as we all know. No specific time limit.

 

[CraigInPA]

For those of you that are waiting for the right opportunity to come across to purchase DVC I believe your prudence is about to be rewarded. Interest rates are rising, consumer confidence is wavering, global recession on the horizon, supply of DVC inventory is increasing, and the massive bank of points from COVID is shrinking. Add that all up and I foresee a buyers market in the 3rd and 4th quarter this year.

To be a "buyer's market", there has to be a lot of contracts for sale, and prices have to be attractive.

In the last recession, there were a lot of contracts for sale. People who lost their jobs and who were financing their contracts needed to sell. Some people panicked and sold to avoid maintenance fees or to raise reserve cash. Some listed their contracts for sale to take advantage of other opportunities. In the respect that there were a lot of contracts for sale, it was a "buyer's market".

But, the prices didn't plummet due to lack of buyers. There were plenty of people looking to buy, so prices pretty much remained static, at a slight (10%) discount perhaps, over the easy credit period before the recession. The number of people buying, plus the ability for an owner to rent their points to cover their maintenance fees, didn't crash the prices.

Once people had confidence in the economy again, prices took off. In the last 6 years, we've seen resale pricing go up 50% in most cases. We can look back and say that we should have bought more points during the recession, because the price is up so much from then, but we can't say that the price was down significantly during the recession when it was happening.

 

[CLE2WDW]

Continued weakening is showing in the secondary market. The only thing that continues to baffle me is the ROFR reports. Disney is still buying back 2042s meaning someone is buying direct 2042s at over $200(!!!!!) per point. Maybe eventually people will wake up and realize that with only 19ish years of useful life left a break even is highly improbable at $200+ per point.

 

[hglenn]

Continued weakening is showing in the secondary market. The only thing that continues to baffle me is the ROFR reports. Disney is still buying back 2042s meaning someone is buying direct 2042s at over $200(!!!!!) per point. Maybe eventually people will wake up and realize that with only 19ish years of useful life left a break even is highly improbable at $200+ per point.

I 100% agree with you - I have to assume whoever is buying BWV at $230 has no idea of the resale market.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I 100% agree with you - I have to assume whoever is buying BWV at $230 has no idea of the resale market.

$230 for BWV???

So if I bought 100 points direct from DVC my cost per year would be roughly $1800 per year ($23000/20 + annual dues). There is no way you could possibly even sniff a break even on that deal. Disney is just like Vegas.. if you’re going to make a poor decision they have no problem taking your money.

 

[hglenn]

$230 for BWV???

So if I bought 100 points direct from DVC my cost per year would be roughly $1800 per year ($23000/20 + annual dues). There is no way you could possibly even sniff a break even on that deal. Disney is just like Vegas.. if you’re going to make a poor decision they have no problem taking your money.

BCV is $265 PP

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Continued weakening is showing in the secondary market. The only thing that continues to baffle me is the ROFR reports. Disney is still buying back 2042s meaning someone is buying direct 2042s at over $200(!!!!!) per point. Maybe eventually people will wake up and realize that with only 19ish years of useful life left a break even is highly improbable at $200+ per point.

Or Disney is buy back to hold, for something else?

 

[hglenn]

Or Disney is buy back to hold, for something else?

Seeeeee.... that's what I kept thinking, too! However, they passed my $125 PP BWV contract and it seems that the last few weeks the ROFR bloodbath has subsided on BWV/BCV so now I'm not sure....

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Seeeeee.... that's what I kept thinking, too! However, they passed my $125 PP BWV contract and it seems that the last few weeks the ROFR bloodbath has subsided on BWV/BCV so now I'm not sure....

Unit numbers? Maybe total speculation.

 

[eticketplease]

Seeeeee.... that's what I kept thinking, too! However, they passed my $125 PP BWV contract and it seems that the last few weeks the ROFR bloodbath has subsided on BWV/BCV so now I'm not sure....

WOW that is a good price. Glad it snuck through ROFR for you!

 

[CLE2WDW]

Seeeeee.... that's what I kept thinking, too! However, they passed my $125 PP BWV contract and it seems that the last few weeks the ROFR bloodbath has subsided on BWV/BCV so now I'm not sure....

Now THAT is a phenomenal deal. Congrats!!!

 

[hglenn]

WOW that is a good price. Glad it snuck through ROFR for you!

Now THAT is a phenomenal deal. Congrats!!!

Yes, we were absolutely shocked when it passed. It was a full-price offer but right when we put it in is when the ROFR prices were skyrocketing for BWV. By the time ours passed, ROFR had seemingly stopped on BWV and BCV. It was really just the timing, I think.

 

[take36]

Certainly seems like prices will be coming down given the number of contracts out for sale and how many have already been reduced. Prices are still way above what they were a year or two ago, so we'll just have to see how things pan out over the next 12 months.

 

[Leight19]

I’ve said before I think the devaluation people place on the 2042 resorts is larger then makes sense. When you do the math of cost per point looking at number of years and dues it can look like 2042 resorts are bad deal. However if you take into account time value of money the cheaper selling price of 2042 results make up lot of the difference and can even be financially better pending your assumed interest rate.

That said I don’t think any scensrio makes up for the direct prices and 2042 direct is awful deal.

 

[RKS03]

Standard BWV also is takes fewer points than most resorts so you can get further with points. I bet Disney can’t wait to update those point charts in 2042 or later if they rebuild.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I’ve said before I think the devaluation people place on the 2042 resorts is larger then makes sense. When you do the math of cost per point looking at number of years and dues it can look like 2042 resorts are bad deal. However if you take into account time value of money the cheaper selling price of 2042 results make up lot of the difference and can even be financially better pending your assumed interest rate.

That said I don’t think any scensrio makes up for the direct prices and 2042 direct is awful deal.

Maybe, but, for me, I like the thought of my DVC ownership stretching farther into the future. In 2042 I could sell my VGF, Copper Creek, or Aulani and actually get something back, instead of seeing the points vanish with zero chance of recouping anything.

And, five or seven years before the 2042 resorts expire, I can’t help but think it would be hard to unload them as well, even if the math still kinda works at whatever reduced price they’re going for on the resale market.

 

[Huskerpaul]

Maybe, but, for me, I like the thought of my DVC ownership stretching farther into the future. In 2042 I could sell my VGF, Copper Creek, or Aulani and actually get something back, instead of seeing the points vanish with zero chance of recouping anything.

And, five or seven years before the 2042 resorts expire, I can’t help but think it would be hard to unload them as well, even if the math still kinda works at whatever reduced price they’re going for on the resale market.

Different calculus for me on 2042 resorts because we are in are our late 50s with no kids. So, I had no problem paying $134 resale for BWV. I'm just hoping my own contract doesn't expire before my BWV contract does.