Finding the unicorn- Subsidized Aulani

[AstroBlasters]

I agree with your math here but do think that the $96pp price you are using is one that requires some time to find and negotiate while the $145 subsidized price is full offer side. Paying $49 or roughly 50% more pp for the subsidized doesn't make sense but there is a level where it does. The sponsor's site has the average resale price at Aulani in December as $108pp and a couple other subsidized dues contracts listed at $125pp and 130pp right now. At roughly $20 more per point my view is the subsidized contracts make more sense than the unsubsidized. It's likely a ~8yr breakeven ignoring whatever premium you are likely going to be able to sell your contract at if/when you do sell.

Also important in the math is where you think Aulani dues go in the future because as the dues go higher the savings per point also go higher. Subsidized dues are about 75% of unsubsidized dues. Back in 2018 the unsubsidized dues were $7.54/point while the subsidized ones were $5.66 for a difference of 1.88pp per year. At a 2.27 difference now the savings have gone up $0.39 or 20% over 5-years. My guess is that trend continues and especially so when looking out 5 to 10 years. .

I used the $96pp because that was the weighted average of the 3 I purchased in Q4 2022. There is definitely a price point delta at which the subsidized becomes unquestionably a better contract.

That’s good information about the historical dues. A 5% increase on $9 is more than a 5% increase on $7. Not a huge difference, but compounded it would add up over time.

The $125pp subsidized that I see is for a 500 point stripped contract.

I tend to like smaller contracts (200points max) because they should be easier to sell if my needs change. I understand there are additional closing costs, but I like the flexibility and higher resale values.

I also mentally add $18pp to a stripped contract because I could sell the points for at least $18pp through a broker, which may not be the way other people look at it. So, I equate a $125pp stripped to $143pp.

If I knew I was going to want 500 points, then I would go in at $100pp for the stripped subsidized. In my mind I need a margin of safety for the illiquidity of a large contract. $125 (reasonable price) -$18 (stripped) - $7 (large contract incentive).

If I get told no, then I would start bidding on the numerous $100-$108 unsubsidized contracts that have been sitting on the market for months at $85-$90pp and see if I can get any bites.

It only takes one seller to believe it’s worth a few grand to “to just get the thing sold”.

 

[Maryrachel713]

I used the $96pp because that was the weighted average of the 3 I purchased in Q4 2022. There is definitely a price point delta at which the subsidized becomes unquestionably a better contract.

That’s good information about the historical dues. A 5% increase on $9 is more than a 5% increase on $7. Not a huge difference, but compounded it would add up over time.

The $125pp subsidized that I see is for a 500 point stripped contract.

I tend to like smaller contracts (200points max) because they should be easier to sell if my needs change. I understand there are additional closing costs, but I like the flexibility and higher resale values.

I also mentally add $18pp to a stripped contract because I could sell the points for at least $18pp through a broker, which may not be the way other people look at it. So, I equate a $125pp stripped to $143pp.

If I knew I was going to want 500 points, then I would go in at $100pp for the stripped subsidized. In my mind I need a margin of safety for the illiquidity of a large contract. $125 (reasonable price) -$18 (stripped) - $7 (large contract incentive).

If I get told no, then I would start bidding on the numerous $100-$108 unsubsidized contracts that have been sitting on the market for months at $85-$90pp and see if I can get any bites.

It only takes one seller to believe it’s worth a few grand to “to just get the thing sold”.

Thanks for this--I'm over here debating getting an Aulani contract if I can find a good deal and trying to determine what the price difference between the two should be!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Thanks for this--I'm over here debating getting an Aulani contract if I can find a good deal and trying to determine what the price difference between the two should be!

Exciting!

What size contract and UY are you looking for?

 

[Maryrachel713]

Exciting!

What size contract and UY are you looking for?

March UY. Not too big of a contract—probably around 100 but who can’t be convinced for the right contract . I’m hoping for subsidized but need to put together a spreadsheet.

 

[intamin]

March UY. Not too big of a contract—probably around 100 but who can’t be convinced for the right contract . I’m hoping for subsidized but need to put together a spreadsheet.

Fortunately for you it feels like all the subbed contracts were given March UYs. I ended up biting the bullet even though March UY is different than my original direct contract.

 

[Maryrachel713]

Fortunately for you it feels like all the subbed contracts were given March UYs. I ended up biting the bullet even though March UY is different than my original direct contract.

Yeah, I was noticing that. I was originally going for a Dec UY but it seems like those are *very* rare. Now I have a March UY at Poly but we are already renting our points to our friends to go to Aulani this summer and *we* want to go to Aulani too. So we don't have enough points already lol.

I just need to get my head around price points for both sub and unsub contracts.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yeah, I was noticing that. I was originally going for a Dec UY but it seems like those are *very* rare. Now I have a March UY at Poly but we are already renting our points to our friends to go to Aulani this summer and *we* want to go to Aulani too. So we don't have enough points already lol.

I just need to get my head around price points for both sub and unsub contracts.

There is a Fidelity 150 point unsubsidized international seller March UY for $100pp that has been on the market for 4m. It is taking a lot of will power for me to not go in and make a very aggressive offer on it.

I’m at 575 points now at Aulani, 200 at VGC, and want to get 150 at VDH… but my wife would kill me if she sees another accepted offer.

I think an issue you may have is that the timeline to get resale points in your account will be late March, so you may be cutting it close for a 2023 summer trip.

Good luck in your decision process!

 

[intamin]

There is a Fidelity 150 point unsubsidized international seller March UY for $100pp that has been on the market for 4m. It is taking a lot of will power for me to not go in and make a very aggressive offer on it.

I’m at 575 points now at Aulani, 200 at VGC, and want to get 150 at VDH… but my wife would kill me if she sees another accepted offer.

I think an issue you may have is that the timeline to get resale points in your account will be late March, so you may be cutting it close for a 2023 summer trip.

Good luck in your decision process!

Any more Aulani points and I'm pretty sure they'll start calling you Kamehameha each time you land in Honolulu

Yeah, I was noticing that. I was originally going for a Dec UY but it seems like those are *very* rare. Now I have a March UY at Poly but we are already renting our points to our friends to go to Aulani this summer and *we* want to go to Aulani too. So we don't have enough points already lol.

I just need to get my head around price points for both sub and unsub contracts.

Best way is to just find out your break point between the two and figure out what you're okay with and whether or not the steeper buy in cost for subsidized makes sense for you and how long you realistically plan to keep the contract.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Any more Aulani points and I'm pretty sure they'll start calling you Kamehameha each time you land in Honolulu



Best way is to just find out your break point between the two and figure out what you're okay with and whether or not the steeper buy in cost for subsidized makes sense for you and how long you realistically plan to keep the contract.

I’ll leave that crown to whoever buys the 1000 point Aulani contract currently up on DVC Resale Market.

 

[Maryrachel713]

There is a Fidelity 150 point unsubsidized international seller March UY for $100pp that has been on the market for 4m. It is taking a lot of will power for me to not go in and make a very aggressive offer on it.

I’m at 575 points now at Aulani, 200 at VGC, and want to get 150 at VDH… but my wife would kill me if she sees another accepted offer.

I think an issue you may have is that the timeline to get resale points in your account will be late March, so you may be cutting it close for a 2023 summer trip.

Good luck in your decision process!

I have the points for my friends summer trip; we want to go next winter and will likely be short for that trip.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I have the points for my friends summer trip; we want to go next winter and will likely be short for that trip.

Nice! So you have plenty of time to be patient and find exactly what you are looking for.

 

[Maryrachel713]

Nice! So you have plenty of time to be patient and find exactly what you are looking for.

Patience. Interesting concept

 

[AstroBlasters]

There is a Fidelity 150 point unsubsidized international seller March UY for $100pp that has been on the market for 4m. It is taking a lot of will power for me to not go in and make a very aggressive offer on it.

I’m at 575 points now at Aulani, 200 at VGC, and want to get 150 at VDH… but my wife would kill me if she sees another accepted offer.

I think an issue you may have is that the timeline to get resale points in your account will be late March, so you may be cutting it close for a 2023 summer trip.

Good luck in your decision process!

This listing is gone.

 

[SkampyOne]

Just saw a new listing today on Fidelity for AUL subsidized, 250pts with double points in 2023 at $120 with a March UY if someone wants to jump!

 

[Maryrachel713]

Just saw a new listing today on Fidelity for AUL subsidized, 250pts with double points in 2023 at $120 with a March UY if someone wants to jump!

Oof thats a lot of points...but tempting for sure!

 

[Maryrachel713]

I still am just not sure how much more to pay for the sub dues. I'm definitely eyeing Aulani, but we also may want to buy direct Poly2 when it comes (we own resale at Poly1 already). We bought a small contract with the intent to add more I'm just not sure what's best. Hellllllp (I know, I know, not the place to ask for advice)

 

[Maryrachel713]

Offered on an unsubsidized 100 pt but not sure we’re going to agree on terms. Send any sub sightings my way, especially March!

 

[Ashlotte]

Fortunately for you it feels like all the subbed contracts were given March UYs. I ended up biting the bullet even though March UY is different than my original direct contract.

Funny you say that. I have a June UY subbed contract, but what I wanted was March. I just went with the first one I found available after a month of stalking.

 

[intamin]

Funny you say that. I have a June UY subbed contract, but what I wanted was March. I just went with the first one I found available after a month of stalking.

I originally was going to have a June UY but I made DVC change it last minute to April. Figured March was close enough and also worked for us but it just takes a little more work to manage now.

 

[ehh]

Funny you say that. I have a June UY subbed contract, but what I wanted was March. I just went with the first one I found available after a month of stalking.

I've been stalking for a June UY subsidized for months. Recent months have been mostly March and Feb. Another few months of this and I'd consider March.