Figured I'd throw my two cents in as I have already on the DVC boards. Here are a few points
1) DVC IS an investment. It is not the type of investment that should be looked a way to provide a positive return. Instead, it should be looked at as an investment that provides future discounts on hotel accommodations. Either way, keeping all other things equal, your net-worth should theoretically be higher at the end of the DVC contract than it would have been had you paid cash for those stays. This is the investment.
2) The DVC question SHOULD be a truly financial calculation. Sure, there are a couple of very small non-quantitative value aspects, but in reality this is strictly a financial decision. DVC ownership DOES NOT get you anything tangible that cannot be had without DVC ownership. All it does is gets you those things with an alternate payment structure that can possibly lead to an overall reduction of long term costs.
Note: I know that there are a couple of small benefits like lounge access, or DVC member only cruises, etc.... IMO these are fringe benefits and are not the reason 99.9999999% of the people pay all of that money to buy into DVC.
3) One thing people always forget when they look at things like this (and this includes real estate appreciation as well) is inflation. Just because you bought for $50/point in 1950 and can sell today at $80/point, doesn't mean that your investment appreciated. $50 in 1950 bought a lot more than $80 today. (These are exaggerated numbers for illustration purposes. I know DVC did not exist in 1950. I don't even think
Disneyland existed in 1950).
4) There are other ways to do this and get the same vacation experience as DVC offers. If you take every dollar that you would otherwise put into DVC (purchase price, closing costs, annual dues, etc...) and put it into some long term investment (think something like a broad based index fund ETF), you can then withdraw a portion of the money out of this fund every year (or two, or three) and use it to pay for the same hotels either through cash bookings or renting of points. Depending on multiple variables (increase in cash prices, increase in maintenance fees, expected investment growth returns, etc....) you may end up with more money at the end of the "contract length", or you may end up with less.
IMO, if you truly do go annually, and book deluxe hotels for each trip, DVC actually provides better value than the investment strategy. However, the investment strategy has many other benefits such as
- Liquidity: When life changes, it's much easier to pull your money out of an ETF investment than to sell your DVC.
- Vacation style changes: It may be shocking, but at some point in your life you may get sick of travelling to Disney. Or at the very least would visit less frequently. Pulling out cash out of an ATM is a lot easier than renting your points.
- Easier to downsize: You may buy DVC with the intent to stay in a 2 BR villa because of your young children. At some point in the contract, your kids will have grown up and may not travel with you. If you have points for a 2 BR villa but only require to be in a 1 BR or studio, you will have left over points. No, these are not free points. You've already paid for them. Pulling less out of an investment is much easier than trying to rent off a few extra points every year.