How Worried Should We Be?

I’m at the beach right now in NJ. Most groups are socially distancing but the groups that are together are large. Many groups of 10+ people and they obviously don’t live in the same household. Last week we came with our friends and we were a group of 15.
Dd19 is at long branch with friends (she drove separately), dd17 is at Belmar with friends (dd19 dropped her off). They better not be on top of each other.
 
I am a bit concerned about virus spread due to the protests. From what I've seen on TV, a larger number of protesters are masked vs unmasked, so hopefully that will help. I have seen a lot of unmasked police and national guard personnel, but most have face shields which might provide some protection.

What's concerning is the sheer number of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder. They're talking, yelling and chanting which is more likely to spread virus particles. People who get hit with tear gas and pepper spray are rubbing their faces. Their eyes are watering, their noses are running, they're spitting. You see other people rushing to wash their eyes with water or milk. They're all having very direct contact at this point. These people are making a choice, and I support that. I hope it doesn't cause a huge spike in cases, but time will tell.
 
I think there will be spikes, both related to the protests and related to folks relaxing their standards. I've seen lots of posts on this page and on Facebook with folks admitting to doing things which are against CDC guidelines (sleepovers, visiting family without social distance, allowing kids to have playdates, etc) which will probably lead to increased cases.

The CDC recommended that everyone who participated in a protest gets tested for COVID.
 


I found this on another site a visit. It's not "facts" just someone who kind of watches the numbers as a hobby and thinks it's going to be hard to visualize a spike (if there is one) based on all of the various locations, young age of protesters, and so on. It makes a little bit of sense to me as I read it although some of it is a little off. But I think it's correct in that it's going to be hard to see a concentrate spike in any one place. Now if contract tracing were well established, we could see how much tied back to the protests.

Who dies from COVID? Old people. And who is protesting? NOT old people.

Who gets SICK from COVID? All people. But few young show symptoms.
Who gets TESTED from COVID? Generally people with symptoms.
How many get tested? As many and as fast as the tests allow...

In other words - the only spike you could possibly see is an increase in positive tests, matching the rate of testing, which is already rising at a pretty good clip. About 20,000 a day positive confirmed tests we add. Lots more aren't positive. It means we test 50K a day or 200K a day or .. .A LOT.

To make that number move - much - you'd have to administer lots and lots more tests - that ain't gonna happen. But if it did - and 100,000 YOUNG people just got infected - how many show symptoms and get tested? Few.

A spike at all would appear in the number of dead vulnerable relatives to these young people, a month or two from now. Kids don't care if they're sick. But they just killed gramma to throw some bricks through a window. How many "vulnerable" people will die as a result? No idea. But even if it were 1000, they would not be on the same day, and we're still burying 700-1100 EVERY day, so it will be a hard spike to notice, in any event.

I read a paper on this very idea (and sorry can’t find the link this minute) but the idea is it takes awhile to slowly circulate undetected in a population and the hits critical mass it seems all of a sudden- but due to the very long lead time and asymptomatic carriers it’s hard to find sudden spikes. If it takes a protester a week to become contagious (and we don’t know if that’s the right number) and they take it to coworkers/family and it take a week for them to get it, and then add a week for it to get to hospital stage and that’s a 3 week delay. Add in a little more time for the mild case to give to another in the train. The paper thought that might explain why we plateaued so long after locking down since those chains were already in position in homes.
 
We live in a “cold-spot” in New York State. Cases are rising here, but that is because of New York’s over abundance of tests and encouraging everyone to get tested. However, the thing they are monitoring is not the cases but rather the hospitalizations. Right now, our county has zero hospitalizations. We had small protests last weekend so it’s possible our latest cases are from that.
 


Just read an article that said that 70-80% of people infected with the virus DO NOT spread it to anyone else. It said that 20-30% of infected people are responsible for the spread and that "superspreaders" bear most of the responsibility for outbreaks.

Of course, no one knows who is spreading vs who is not.

Also, it said that this virus is NOT being spread primarily by asymptomatic people.
 
That's why they are crowded.

It wasn’t crowded. Every group was socially distancing and there was plenty of empty space but there were plenty of groups of 10+ people that most likely didn’t live together. But we are allowed to be in gatherings of 25 people if outdoors. Police and security did come by and told people that no rules we being broken with the group sizes.
 
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Just read an article that said that 70-80% of people infected with the virus DO NOT spread it to anyone else. It said that 20-30% of infected people are responsible for the spread and that "superspreaders" bear most of the responsibility for outbreaks.

Of course, no one knows who is spreading vs who is not.

Also, it said that this virus is NOT being spread primarily by asymptomatic people.
You can't post a link to the article?
 
Just read an article that said that 70-80% of people infected with the virus DO NOT spread it to anyone else. It said that 20-30% of infected people are responsible for the spread and that "superspreaders" bear most of the responsibility for outbreaks.

Of course, no one knows who is spreading vs who is not.

Also, it said that this virus is NOT being spread primarily by asymptomatic people.
Interesting! That would be really good news. Will you share the link please?
 
Just wondering what peoples' thoughts are on this. I have been watching the numbers over time and the numbers in the northeast are slowly declining while the numbers in many southern states have been rising. Could any of this be weather related? Here in the northeast, the numbers seem to be dropping even though restrictions have been slowly easing. I feel like it's partly because the weather has been so nice that people are outside a lot more than they were back in March/ April when the numbers were skyrocketing here. OTOH, I have family in FL and they had been spending a lot of time in their yards etc... back in the spring and now it is so hot that they are staying inside more with the AC.
I also think cases here in the Northeast have been steadily declining because people are actually wearing masks in public. Things are still not fully opened either. When people go into a store, they have to wear a mask and are following those directives. I think it is making a difference.

I also think there probably will be an increase in cases due to protests...particularly where people are not wearing masks. Time will tell.
 
It wasn’t crowded. Every group was socially distancing and there was plenty of empty space but there were plenty of groups of 10+ people that most likely didn’t live together. But we are allowed to be in gatherings of 25 people if outdoors. Police and security did come by and told people that no rules we being broken with the group sizes.

We went to LBI last weekend and it was very laid back. Was almost like normal except Acme required masks.
 
I am a bit concerned about virus spread due to the protests. From what I've seen on TV, a larger number of protesters are masked vs unmasked, so hopefully that will help. I have seen a lot of unmasked police and national guard personnel, but most have face shields which might provide some protection.

What's concerning is the sheer number of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder. They're talking, yelling and chanting which is more likely to spread virus particles. People who get hit with tear gas and pepper spray are rubbing their faces. Their eyes are watering, their noses are running, they're spitting. You see other people rushing to wash their eyes with water or milk. They're all having very direct contact at this point. These people are making a choice, and I support that. I hope it doesn't cause a huge spike in cases, but time will tell.

Or no real spike in hospitilizations will occur from it and it will help life move one. Since in the end its about keeping the hospitals at a manageable level.
 
My guess is they'll have little impact.

Right now, the science points to close contact as the primary driver of spread. Outdoor settings appear to be safer than indoors, in-passing contact is less problematic than face-to-face interaction. We haven't seen outbreaks associated with any of the other recent (and not-so-recent) crowded outdoor situations that drew social media rage - the beaches in FL and CA, the boardwalks in Ocean City and Myrtle Beach, the Ozarks pool party, the protests against lockdown. My guess is that this will be similar, because the situation is similar.

I'm much more concerned with the reopening of high-contact situations like salon services, as well as indoor dining and recreation facilities where ventilation systems may end up defeating social distancing guidelines. I don't believe it is coincidence that the northern part of the country saw the highest rates when we were all still hanging out in our heated homes and businesses, while the south and west saw lower rates as people enjoyed pleasant early spring temps, and now we're seeing higher rates in the south and west as air conditioning season has gotten underway while rates in the north have declined as we all opened the windows and headed outside.
 
I'm curious about why the protests would bring a new wave worse than the crowded beaches would
I think many protestors SHOUT thus spewing millions of particles from their mouths, those not wearing masks. Although I appreciate those protestors who are wearing masks, in these scenarios those particles can still transmit disease to another via eye transmissions. If persons are repeatedly protesting day after day exposure is much likelier. For repeat protestors not wearing masks, imo that is very concerning!

The beach is probably the safer place of the 2.
 
My guess is they'll have little impact.

Right now, the science points to close contact as the primary driver of spread. Outdoor settings appear to be safer than indoors, in-passing contact is less problematic than face-to-face interaction. We haven't seen outbreaks associated with any of the other recent (and not-so-recent) crowded outdoor situations that drew social media rage - the beaches in FL and CA, the boardwalks in Ocean City and Myrtle Beach, the Ozarks pool party, the protests against lockdown. My guess is that this will be similar, because the situation is similar.

I'm much more concerned with the reopening of high-contact situations like salon services, as well as indoor dining and recreation facilities where ventilation systems may end up defeating social distancing guidelines. I don't believe it is coincidence that the northern part of the country saw the highest rates when we were all still hanging out in our heated homes and businesses, while the south and west saw lower rates as people enjoyed pleasant early spring temps, and now we're seeing higher rates in the south and west as air conditioning season has gotten underway while rates in the north have declined as we all opened the windows and headed outside.

SC, FL, MO, and CA are all increasing their incidence. Not yet a spike, but heading on up.
 
My guess is they'll have little impact.

Right now, the science points to close contact as the primary driver of spread. Outdoor settings appear to be safer than indoors, in-passing contact is less problematic than face-to-face interaction. We haven't seen outbreaks associated with any of the other recent (and not-so-recent) crowded outdoor situations that drew social media rage - the beaches in FL and CA, the boardwalks in Ocean City and Myrtle Beach, the Ozarks pool party, the protests against lockdown. My guess is that this will be similar, because the situation is similar.

I'm much more concerned with the reopening of high-contact situations like salon services, as well as indoor dining and recreation facilities where ventilation systems may end up defeating social distancing guidelines. I don't believe it is coincidence that the northern part of the country saw the highest rates when we were all still hanging out in our heated homes and businesses, while the south and west saw lower rates as people enjoyed pleasant early spring temps, and now we're seeing higher rates in the south and west as air conditioning season has gotten underway while rates in the north have declined as we all opened the windows and headed outside.
yep!
 
No political discussion please.

How worried should we be about the large groups of Protestors as it relates to a possible new outbreak of Covid-19?

Is it really something that could cause a MAJOR new spread or is it something that will have minimal to no impact?
Protesters have largely been younger and will be less likely to show symptoms anyway, that leads to the issue of contracting it and spreading it to family or co-workers.

They've also been pretty good (ish) about wearing masks. Not great about it at protests but if they are wearing them to scream at passing cars, they probably wear them everywhere else.

Not a good situation, but it could be worse.
 

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