Analysis of Riviera sales as of 5/10/2019

[BWV Dreamin]

I do agree that there seems to be a subset of posters on any DRR thread that are openly rooting for DRR to fail so they can blame it on the nefarious resale restrictions. But it's not likely that DRR will fail and it's quite likely that the next round of resale restrictions will make the current ones seem benign by comparison. Now that DVD has implemented restrictions that actually change how the "club" operates, based on direct or resale status, I think the genie is out of the bottle.

What new restrictions?

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

What new restrictions?

Resale buyers at Riviera can only book at Riviera. They have no 7 month privileges at other resorts. And this impacts the Direct buyers at Riviera, because if they ever need to sell, their points are worth less.

 

[Brian Noble]

but seriously, how many more DVC resorts before the DVC market is totally saturated

I don't think there ever is a point at which saturation happens. Each year, some fraction of folks visiting WDW are families visiting for the first time, because new families keep being created! Some fraction of those will, in turn, be both (a) interested in returning on a regular basis and (b) able to afford what DVC offers.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Resale buyers at Riviera can only book at Riviera. They have no 7 month privileges at other resorts. And this impacts the Direct buyers at Riviera, because if they ever need to sell, their points are worth less.

Knew about. Thought it was something additional .

 

[CarolMN]

Resale buyers at Riviera can only book at Riviera. They have no 7 month privileges at other resorts. And this impacts the Direct buyers at Riviera, because if they ever need to sell, their points are worth less.

I know that the above opinion reflects that of the majority of posters here on the DIS DVC forums. However, the more I think about it, the less sure I am that this assumption will end up being correct.

I think DRR (and the skyliner) will end up being very popular. People will be happy to buy DRR via resale because that is where they want to stay. Can't stay elsewhere? Who cares?

We almost always stay at the BWV and would be absolutely fine with staying there every time. (Bought in 1999 and not counting a handful of split stays, stayed elsewhere exactly one time). I have to believe that most all of those buying BCV & BWV contracts these days are doing so because they want to stay there. Prices for those 2042 resorts don't seem to make sense otherwise - the smaller contracts don't last long on the resale market and actually command a premium. Why wouldn't DRR end up the same? I'll reserve final judgement until after it opens, but everything I've seen so far indicates it's going to be just gorgeous & give the Grand Floridian a "run for the money". JMHO. YMMV.

 

[TexasChick123]

I know that the above opinion reflects that of the majority of posters here on the DIS DVC forums. However, the more I think about it, the less sure I am that this assumption will end up being correct.

I think DRR (and the skyliner) will end up being very popular. People will be happy to buy DRR via resale because that is where they want to stay. Can't stay elsewhere? Who cares?

We almost always stay at the BWV and would be absolutely fine with staying there every time. (Bought in 1999 and not counting a handful of split stays, stayed elsewhere exactly one time). I have to believe that most all of those buying BCV & BWV contracts these days are doing so because they want to stay there. Prices for those 2042 resorts don't seem to make sense otherwise - the smaller contracts don't last long on the resale market and actually command a premium. Why wouldn't DRR end up the same? I'll reserve final judgement until after it opens, but everything I've seen so far indicates it's going to be just gorgeous & give the Grand Floridian a "run for the money". JMHO. YMMV.

I agree. I’ve stated countless times that the right to stay elsewhere at 7 months isn’t that appealing when you buy where you want to stay. That’s always been our strategy, but to each his/her own.

 

[The Jackal]

Besides the RIV resale restrictions the sky high maintenance fees will drive people away, unless they go down or stay the same for about 5 years. They are the highest of any WDW DVC.

 

[CarolMN]

Besides the RIV resale restrictions the sky high maintenance fees will drive people away, unless they go down or stay the same for about 5 years. They are the highest of any WDW DVC.

High fees didn't seem to impact sales of CCV, though. I think DRR fees are just a harbinger of the 2020 fees to come for the other resorts. That's what happened with the initial CCV fees. They're in the ball park now. We have yet to feel the effects of the CM hourly wage increase.

 

[Drewferin]

High fees didn't seem to impact sales of CCV, though. I think DRR fees are just a harbinger of the 2020 fees to come for the other resorts. That's what happened with the initial CCV fees. They're in the ball park now. We have yet to feel the effects of the CM hourly wage increase.

I agree that the increase in 2020 maintenance fees at other resorts will probably make RIV seem not so expensive. For AKV, I can see another 10% increase which will bring it to 7.44 x 1.1 = 8.18. So 8.18 vs 8.31 isn't a massive difference. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens to maintenance fees with the labor minimum raising.

 

[Madame]

I truly believe that the next move is to change the booking window for resale (otherwise why include the language in the POS).

It won’t be that DRR won’t be an attractive resale option; DVC will drive resalers away. Sure they’ll offer to upgrade your resale points for a fee, but why not buy retail at that point?

 

[The Jackal]

High fees didn't seem to impact sales of CCV, though. I think DRR fees are just a harbinger of the 2020 fees to come for the other resorts. That's what happened with the initial CCV fees. They're in the ball park now. We have yet to feel the effects of the CM hourly wage increase.

Most WDW resorts did see around a 9% increase for 2019 which was tied directly to CM wage increase. RIV dues are about $2.00 more than SSR and $1.00 more than the highest WDW one. RIV is right behind HHI and VB. The two lowest prices DVC resorts, yes I know they are off property. If WDW resort dues follow RIV, that’s going to make HHI and VB points way more attractive. They will be cheap points for people who want 1 and 2 bedroom units.

 

[Drewferin]

I truly believe that the next move is to change the booking window for resale (otherwise why include the language in the POS).

It won’t be that DRR won’t be an attractive resale option; DVC will drive resalers away. Sure they’ll offer to upgrade your resale points for a fee, but why not buy retail at that point?

If / when Disney changes the window for booking RIV resale will they grandfather in RIV resale contracts prior to the change? Seeing how Disney has grandfathered in past changes maybe they would again with RIV resale? Do you think that Disney will make this change and announce it prior to the first resale RIV contract being sold? This would maybe change my mind on buying direct...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

High fees didn't seem to impact sales of CCV, though. I think DRR fees are just a harbinger of the 2020 fees to come for the other resorts. That's what happened with the initial CCV fees. They're in the ball park now. We have yet to feel the effects of the CM hourly wage increase.

True, but CCV has much lower point requirements so the cost still isn't near add high as Riv.

 

[Madame]

If / when Disney changes the window for booking RIV resale will they grandfather in RIV resale contracts prior to the change? Seeing how Disney has grandfathered in past changes maybe they would again with RIV resale? Do you think that Disney will make this change and announce it prior to the first resale RIV contract being sold? This would maybe change my mind on buying direct...

I have no idea, but if too many people still see DRR resale as attractive with the HR restrictions, you can bet they’ll turn the screw even more.

 

[jlwhitney]

High fees didn't seem to impact sales of CCV, though. I think DRR fees are just a harbinger of the 2020 fees to come for the other resorts. That's what happened with the initial CCV fees. They're in the ball park now. We have yet to feel the effects of the CM hourly wage increase.

This is actually what our guide said, Riviera is the only resort to factor in the new wage increase.

 

[crvetter]

This is actually what our guide said, Riviera is the only resort to factor in the new wage increase.

Likely it factors in the wage increase coming in Fall 2019 for the entire time the resort is open (since it opens December). The other resorts factor it in but because they are open the entire year the average minimum wage for the entire year is much lower at the other resorts by 7%. It’s even possible they priced the dues on the 2020 minimum wage since it’s only open for 15 days in 2019.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/riviera-annual-dues.3743847/#post-60485073

 

[Katie L]

This is actually what our guide said, Riviera is the only resort to factor in the new wage increase.

Riviera owners are covering a lot of the gondola costs too. I think you're right that dues are going to go up 10% this year. And also in 2021.

 

[Bruin_mouse]

For what it's worth I checked today and several deeds that were recorded on 5/13/2019 have an April date. Probably not enough to make a huge a difference in the analysis for April sales, but thought I'd point it out.

 

[skier_pete]

I truly believe that the next move is to change the booking window for resale (otherwise why include the language in the POS).

It won’t be that DRR won’t be an attractive resale option; DVC will drive resalers away. Sure they’ll offer to upgrade your resale points for a fee, but why not buy retail at that point?

I have to say - this is my greatest fear - and part of what's making me think seriously about another resale contract. The minute they make this change, resale becomes a terrible buy (at least for studios).

 

[Drewferin]

Your assuming a couple different things:

(1) They grandfather in pre-existing resale contracts
(2) I don't think there is language in the legacy 14 contracts to support this change
(3) The do have language in the RIV contract that could allow this to RIV resale.