Anyone think Alaska will be a no go for next summer?

We’re booked on Alaska 2021 (booked opening day) and I’m taking a “wait and see” approach right now. I’d be surprised if they didn’t get to go at all next year, but I also wasn’t expecting this summer to get canceled either. If they do get to go I’m sure it will look different than in years past. And if they do go I haven’t made up my mind yet if we’ll be on it. I’m sure Disney will put guest safety first but one of my sons is special needs and high risk, so it’s a matter of personal comfort for our family. Ultimately though I see no point in making a decision now when we have 11 months before final payment date and a lot can change during that time.
 
How many crew did they need for 25-30 passengers?

mom said she thought they were at least 25 crewmembers on board. There were several people who took care of the cabins and public areas. There were at least five people with dining. There were also at least five people that she said were activity people. And two naturalists and one photography guide. She wasn’t sure how many crew there were who were solely in charge of taking care of the ship itself, the captain, crew, and deckhands. I would guess that some of those jobs do cross over.
 
In 2016 the cruise industry brought Canada more than $3.2 billion, I wouldn't consider that a small amount. Almost 70% of that is spent right here in Vancouver BC. Every cruise ship that docks here in Vancouver brings in close to $1.3 million. Over 23000 jobs are directly impacted by the cruise industry here in Canada. So yes it's a strange summer here in Vancouver with the cruise season cancelled, not to mention all our big seasonal events.

In raw dollars it’s a lot, but as a proportion it’s around 3% I believe, and we have no idea what the cost to the local economy is if there’s an outbreak. Whats the cost to the local health system of managing 5k per ship including crew for embarkation and debarkation under new rules? For Canada the incentives are a lot lower than the US, Mexico, and the Carribean.
 
Are there scenarios where there is no season? Definitely. If there is no vaccine or therapeutics by next spring. If there are still widespead outbreaks and the death toll continues to rise. Under that scenario the economic impacts, both from the virus and the changes to long-term behaviour of people will have the cruise and tourism industry as a whole on the ropes. You can open things up all you want, if people are afraid of getting sick, if they don't have the confidence that they will be safe things are going to be ugly.

Reality is that the odds of that are small in my mind. Around the world there are some of the smartest people on the planet working on coming vaccines and therapeutics. There are over a 100 vaccine candidates either in human trails or heading to trails. Ideally you end up with a handful of successful candidates that get massed produced as quickly as possible (and we see that by production starting before we know they will work). The wild card is that governments and companies need to accept that patents be damned, this is one occassion where worldwide public health needs take priority. Once people start getting vacinated is when there will be a collective sigh of relief from everyone, including the cruise lines.
 


This. People who depend on tourism for their livelihood are going to revolt if they are told they can’t run their businesses two years in a row.


That is if they are still in business. Most business can't survive a whole season with out any or extremely reduced income.
My wife and I are planning an Alaska trip for 2021. We started planning before the shut downs started. Now we will have to start thinking if we still want to go due to the possibility that the excursion companies and tourist oriented business may no longer exist. We can hope for their sake they do survive. My wife and I can always go to Alaska another year.
 

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