Booking VGC 7 Months Out

[Bing Showei]

A lot of members have said this, but I never understood this argument since new resort owners are hardly likely to use their precious $188/pt contracts to sleep around.

You overestimate most Disney timeshare owners’ understanding of the product. I used to as well until I started talking to more and more of them.

I stood on the Friendship boat and chatted with a woman who was teaching me, as a self-proclaimed new Disney timeshare owner, how I’m able to use my points outside of WDW. She explained how she used her BCV points to visit several hotels/resorts across the country on her points for the years when her kids tired of Disney World (first time back to WDW in 6 years).

Then there was the couple who chatted me up at a kiosk about how great their timeshare ownership was and all the cruises they’ve done on their points; loved their ownership. No regrets. Have gotten great value out of it. And honestly, judging by how happy they were with it, I couldn’t argue otherwise.

Some owners buy in not understanding the product. Some buy knowing the product, but not caring how to maximize value. They’re happily using their new points the way it was sold to them: with flexibility. And yes, this includes the idea of using them anywhere in the system in any way the system allows, including less economical choices that would cause most of us here to recoil in horror.

On these boards, we’re in a bit of a bubble. Our outrage is amplified in the echo chamber. Our obvious “common sense” would read as a bizarro-world manifesto counter to all of the guide’s marketing spiel. And our systematic valuation of resort points will read like a foreign language to a lot of owners, or eye-rolling fodder.

All this is to say that those “precious” $188 points are precious to you. To the owner, they’re “Vacation Club” points. And as long as they’re being used on a vacation, they’re being used exactly as they were designed to be used.

Save for a another SSR (ginormous resort at a non-preferred location), I believe, as others have suggested, that any new timeshare resort on the WDW campus will probably have a net zero effect on demand. Old owners will want to try it out. New owners will want to try other resorts. After an initial break-in period, it will mostly cancel out any 7-month impact. Once the Riviera/Reflections resale contracts become a larger part of the system, it’s anyone’a guess what will happen, but if I were a betting man? My money would be on 7-month maintaining the status quo system wide.

 

[emchen]

Point taken on the overestimation part.

...if I were a betting man? My money would be on 7-month maintaining the status quo system wide.

@Bing Showei, I think this is how it will play out as well, and I think you and @skier_pete are in prime position to see validation of this hypothesis. I believe your most recent availability charts show some confirmation of that for 1-BRs already.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Getting back to the original question of this thread, the DVC fan phrase of “buy low, sleep high” is a great argument for doing the 7-month window strategy for 1-BR villas at any high demand, low-supply resort. Whether it is VGC, VGF, BCV during F&W, you name it. Caveats being for studios, “rope drop” at opening of 7-month window.



A lot of members have said this, but I never understood this argument since new resort owners are hardly likely to use their precious $188/pt contracts to sleep around. If they did they would more likely use them at WDW resorts of equivalent high cost (wouldn’t make sense to “buy high, sleep low”). Not to mention Riviera and Reflections will be point-drains for all the resale points sold prior to 1/1/19. I see the opening of Riviera and Reflections as a relief, not added burden for VGC.

It's all guesswork of course, but VGC is a bit unique in the DVC world. VGC is the one place (maybe along with VGF) where people with direct points are not "wasting" their points because VGC costs so much. Note that VGC resale is somewhere between $185-$200 per point depending on the specific contract. And there is no alternative to VGC at Disneyland. And OP was specifically asking about VGC, not a WDW resort.

I agree that 7 month booking as a whole will not be affected much as you and @Bing Showei mention, however my suspicion is the bigger DVC gets, the harder it will get for the most popular resorts. In general, my theory is that a DVC resort enters the economy. It gets ranked by public opinion among the DVC resorts in popularity. Anything "ranked" above the new DVC resort gets harder because owners are willing to trade up. Anything "ranked" lower than the new resort gets easier. The net effect for the entire system remains relatively constant, but for VGC it gets harder. It will be very difficult for any DVC to "outrank" VGC in my opinion.

Just my theory. I think it would take a serious economist to actually figure out if this is plausible or not.

 

[Jkarrows]

Getting back to the original question of this thread, the DVC fan phrase of “buy low, sleep high” is a great argument for doing the 7-month window strategy for 1-BR villas at any high demand, low-supply resort. Whether it is VGC, VGF, BCV during F&W, you name it. Caveats being for studios, “rope drop” at opening of 7-month window.



A lot of members have said this, but I never understood this argument since new resort owners are hardly likely to use their precious $188/pt contracts to sleep around. If they did they would more likely use them at WDW resorts of equivalent high cost (wouldn’t make sense to “buy high, sleep low”). Not to mention Riviera and Reflections will be point-drains for all the resale points sold prior to 1/1/19. I see the opening of Riviera and Reflections as a relief, not added burden for VGC.

With the Riviera being DVC only this will also take some load off DVC resorts but will not help as mentioned else where the re-sell purchase as these people will not be able to book at these hotels if ordered after the re-sell cut off.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I have to agree on almost everything which is rare.

VGC is a unique duck in this system. And it is not so much a SAP destination as it's a place a lot of DVC members who want to get to every park, or just mix it up, might want to get to once or twice. But even that once or twice with so many members and so few rooms is competitive.

And I cannot tell you how many direct buyers I am seeing even right now talking about FOMO on future resorts, how the ability to trade out for non Disney was what won them into buying, how Disney will "always" improve perks and make it so that resale cannot stay at BCV, you name it. DIS and even TUG are pretty savvy crowds but it is not the DVC norm.

 

[crisi]

Getting back to the original question of this thread, the DVC fan phrase of “buy low, sleep high” is a great argument for doing the 7-month window strategy for 1-BR villas at any high demand, low-supply resort. Whether it is VGC, VGF, BCV during F&W, you name it. Caveats being for studios, “rope drop” at opening of 7-month window.



A lot of members have said this, but I never understood this argument since new resort owners are hardly likely to use their precious $188/pt contracts to sleep around. If they did they would more likely use them at WDW resorts of equivalent high cost (wouldn’t make sense to “buy high, sleep low”). Not to mention Riviera and Reflections will be point-drains for all the resale points sold prior to 1/1/19. I see the opening of Riviera and Reflections as a relief, not added burden for VGC.

There is a huge assumption there - and that is that availability patterns don't change for one bedrooms. If more people buy enough sleep around points for one bedrooms, that will change. If Disney changes the point structure for one bedrooms, that will change. You are buying for the long term, make sure that you will be able to book within your home resort window and be happy staying at your home resort. Even with one bedrooms. When I joined this board, getting a studio at BWV for Food and Wine was easy - as long as you were willing to take preferred view and call right at seven months (back then it was only call - and you did it day by day).

People will use their Riviera contract to sleep around, because the vast majority of direct points are sold to people who don't know about the resale market and who bought while blinded with pixie dust. They got the sales pitch that they could buy Riviera and stay at Boardwalk or the Grand Floridian - and they believed it. People who buy BWV resale right now won't use them to sleep around, because they are comparing resorts and prices and are paying for the real differential in an informed manner. But new Riviera owners are - by and large - ignorant - they don't even realize there is a price differential. And once they've purchased, the cost is sunk, they might as well use their points where they want - and the older resorts are a point bargain - so booking something other than Riveria will allow them to stretch their points.

 

[KPeterso]

VGC owner x2 contracts. I bought 50 points there direct in 2010 (I think) and then another 50 points resale about 2 years ago. I originally thought I would have no issues getting the resort at 7 months, but after a couple times having issues I bought the first contract (small because it is what I could afford then). And then added on a few years ago when it was clear I needed more points there. I can honestly say I would still like another 75-100 points there, but it is not realistic for me to add any more there right now.

I always tell people though that my VGC points are for use at VGC and ONLY VGC. And I do take advantage of my 11-7 month window. I just booked for next July for Disneyland's 65th birthday last week. And I have a couple days booked in January that I may or may not keep (booked in hopes of a Moonlight Magic around same dates as it was this year, so waiting for an announcement).

 

[emchen]

There is a huge assumption there - and that is that availability patterns don't change for one bedrooms... If Disney changes the point structure for one bedrooms, that will change.

Well, the assumption is made in the comfortable arms of knowing that the total number of points in the points-charts must remain the same. Taking VGC as example, if DVD were to decrease the point cost of 1 BR villas, then the cost of studios and or dedicated 2-BR villas will go up to maintain zero net change. With inventory of exactly 23 studios, 23 1-BR, 23 2-BR, and 2 Grand Villas for a grand total of 71 max units, it will be very difficult to alter demand patterns between studios and 1-BR villas.

 

[crvetter]

Well, the assumption is made in the comfortable arms of knowing that the total number of points in the points-charts must remain the same. Taking VGC as example, if DVD were to decrease the point cost of 1 BR villas, then the cost of studios and or dedicated 2-BR villas will go up to maintain zero net change. With inventory of exactly 23 studios, 23 1-BR, 23 2-BR, and 2 Grand Villas for a grand total of 71 max units, it will be very difficult to alter demand patterns between studios and 1-BR villas.

Quick note that since VGC consists of 0 dedicated studios or 1 bedrooms when DVC increases or decreases the points of the studio or 1 bedroom (at resorts with no dedicated studios or 1 beds) there is no obligation for that to be offset elsewhere. The reason for this is because the rule is that the total points to book the entire resort needs to remain constant and 2 bedroom lockouts are treated as such in that point. Thus the studio or 1 bedroom points at VGC have no bearing on the total points to book the resort for the year.

 

[emchen]

Quick note that since VGC consists of 0 dedicated studios or 1 bedrooms when DVC increases or decreases the points of the studio or 1 bedroom (at resorts with no dedicated studios or 1 beds) there is no obligation for that to be offset elsewhere. The reason for this is because the rule is that the total points to book the entire resort needs to remain constant and 2 bedroom lockouts are treated as such in that point. Thus the studio or 1 bedroom points at VGC have no bearing on the total points to book the resort for the year.

Suppose no 2BR lockoffs are booked for a given period of time at VGC, does that mean the sum total of points from Studios and 1BR villas during the same period of time need to equal the number of points of 2BR villas? If not, how do they account for ...oh, I see it now...how diabolical! They de-couple the fact that studios and 1-BR villas come from 2-BR lockoffs? Seems so legally tenuous...like saying 2 is not equal to 1+1 (or rather, 0.7 + 1.3).

If that is the case, the demand pattern for studios and 1BR villas will still be hard to change until studio cost is near equal to 1BR villas or vice versa. Just in case, I am closing on a VGC resale contract to use exclusively at VGC like KPeterso:

I always tell people though that my VGC points are for use at VGC and ONLY VGC.

 

[crvetter]

Suppose no 2BR lockoffs are booked for a given period of time at VGC, does that mean the sum total of points from Studios and 1BR villas during the same period of time need to equal the number of points of 2BR villas? If not, how do they account for ...oh, I see it now...how diabolical! They de-couple the fact that studios and 1-BR villas come from 2-BR lockoffs? Seems so legally tenuous...like saying 2 is not equal to 1+1 (or rather, 0.7 + 1.3).

If that is the case, the demand pattern for studios and 1BR villas will still be hard to change until studio cost is near equal to 1BR villas or vice versa. Just in case, I am closing on a VGC resale contract to use exclusively at VGC like KPeterso:

I will say that VGC from what I can tell is very well balanced among the members so it’s not likely a balance is needed. For instance the original 2020 charts left VGC alone.

The biggest point is that the 2 beds can go up but the grand villas have to go down and so on. However the 1 beds and studios just freely (subject to a 20% movement cap from year to year for the same day outside holidays) can go up or down. It’s something many call the “lockoff premium” increasing.

 

[CarolMN]

If all the villas at VGC are lock-offs, I don't think we need to worry about lock off premiums increasing.

All lock offs are counted as 2 bedrooms in the "total points" calculation. Thus, DVC can only reallocate between studios and 1 bedrooms or between seasons or between days of the week. And if some of those go up, there will have to be a decrease somewhere else.

IOW, Disney won't be "manufacturing" points out of thin air for VGC, like they initially tried to do with the 2020 charts for most WDW resorts.

 

[crvetter]

If all the villas at VGC are lock-offs, I don't think we need to worry about lock off premiums increasing.

All lock offs are counted as 2 bedrooms in the "total points" calculation. Thus, DVC can only reallocate between studios and 1 bedrooms or between seasons or between days of the week. And if some of those go up, there will have to be a decrease somewhere else.

IOW, Disney won't be "manufacturing" points out of thin air for VGC, like they initially tried to do with the 2020 charts for most WDW resorts.

Actually you are confused a bit here. Resorts with dedicated Studios and 1 Bedrooms are less susceptible to the lockoff premium movements. Places like VGC that consist of 0 dedicated Studios or 1 Bedrooms are susceptible to the lockoff premium (like VGF, which this scenario is actually explicitly mentioned in its POS, and occurred in the original point charts for 2020) in that any change in the points for Studios or 1 Bedrooms do not need to have an adjustment between seasons or between days of the week or between different units. The only requirement that DVC has to adhere to is that the total points in a resort remain constant, this is the important distinction in that the total points is calculated by considering a 2 bedroom lockoff as a a 2 bedroom for the purposes of these calculations. Any other statement is just an interpretation of the rule that was presented as a clarification point (per DVCMC and readings of Florida Code). The main thread on the 2020 point charts covers this extensively via posts by myself and others that called and spoke with DVCMC.

This was exactly what people were referring to when they said they "manufactured" points out of the thin air (for VGF/SSR for instance) since they can increase the studios every day of the entire year if they wanted without any offsets (something confirmed in my calls by DVCMC but they said that would be unlikely to ever occur). With the resorts that have dedicated units at all sizes creating those manufactured points is impossible (well near impossible).

 

[Bing Showei]

If all the villas at VGC are lock-offs, I don't think we need to worry about lock off premiums increasing.

All lock offs are counted as 2 bedrooms in the "total points" calculation. Thus, DVC can only reallocate between studios and 1 bedrooms or between seasons or between days of the week. And if some of those go up, there will have to be a decrease somewhere else.

IOW, Disney won't be "manufacturing" points out of thin air for VGC, like they initially tried to do with the 2020 charts for most WDW resorts.

Not sure I follow. That was the whole issue with the retracted 2020 reallocation. Because of how 2-BR lock-offs are counted against the resort point totals, Disney was able to do exactly that: raise studios and 1-BR without offsetting points elsewhere.

 

[CarolMN]

Actually you are confused a bit here. Resorts with dedicated Studios and 1 Bedrooms are less susceptible to the lockoff premium movements. Places like VGC that consist of 0 dedicated Studios or 1 Bedrooms are susceptible to the lockoff premium (like VGF, which this scenario is actually explicitly mentioned in its POS, and occurred in the original point charts for 2020) in that any change in the points for Studios or 1 Bedrooms do not need to have an adjustment between seasons or between days of the week or between different units. The only requirement that DVC has to adhere to is that the total points in a resort remain constant, this is the important distinction in that the total points is calculated by considering a 2 bedroom lockoff as a a 2 bedroom for the purposes of these calculations. Any other statement is just an interpretation of the rule that was presented as a clarification point (per DVCMC and readings of Florida Code). The main thread on the 2020 point charts covers this extensively via posts by myself and others that called and spoke with DVCMC.

This was exactly what people were referring to when they said they "manufactured" points out of the thin air (for VGF/SSR for instance) since they can increase the studios every day of the entire year if they wanted without any offsets (something confirmed in my calls by DVCMC but they said that would be unlikely to ever occur). With the resorts that have dedicated units at all sizes creating those manufactured points is impossible (well near impossible).

Not sure I follow. That was the whole issue with the retracted 2020 reallocation. Because of how 2-BR lock-offs are counted against the resort point totals, Disney was able to do exactly that: raise studios and 1-BR without offsetting points elsewhere.

You are both correct. Didn't think it through & I got it backwards. The cost of a studio lock-off plus the cost of the 1 bedroom lock-off do not have to equal the cost of a 2 bedroom. (I wish they did)! Thanks for the correction.

 

[Bing Showei]

You are both correct. Didn't think it through & I got it backwards. The cost of a studio lock-off plus the cost of the 1 bedroom lock-off do not have to equal the cost of a 2 bedroom. (I wish they did)! Thanks for the correction.

No worries. Every time I think about the reallocation and the subsequent exchanges with Disney, I get this aching pit in my belly as I know it’ll be back next year, or slow rolled so we can gradually enjoy the increasing warmth that is the 2020 Reallocation.

I think the argument can reasonably be made for a lock-off premium (e.g., more labor on Disney side to book and maintain) and imagine most members are fine with it. We did buy in on these charts, didn’t we? Where this went off the rails is that Disney insisted that Disney raised the 1BR as a measure to balance demand which just defies everything the membership has observed historically (as evidenced by all the SSR 1BRs available to CRO, and RCI exchanges). To those who have observed this, it was read by many as a clear money grab.

I hate to rehash this and derail the VGC thread, but given the new DVC podcast the Petes are now doing, there are a lot of new eyes on these boards that should be aware of this bit of VERY recent history.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...t-the-2020-reallocation.3726101/post-60071629
This is a must read for any potential DVC owner. Props to @zavandor for pushing through all the headwind and to those who spoke up. Limber up, folks. 2021 is just around the corner.

Rant over. Sorry, not sorry.

 

[Syndrome]

Yes, its doable - but takes some work, and a whole lot of luck !
We just scored a week long stay in a studio at GCV for March at the 7 month window . Well ......it was a combination of several single to multiple night reservations, that I eventually had member services combine into one single reservation .
It was very hard and a bit stressful to get (not get) the "first day" , but if I kept stalking , usually right after the 7 month window "day" passed , I would always see the day before the 7th month window open ........so I would grab it ! At 8am on the 7th month window , that "day" would always disappear before I could get it , but if I waited a bit , the day before (or days) would open . Without a doubt , all the walkers were dropping days , so I would just grab them as they opened up ! Finally , by about the 4th seperate reservation, I was able to (luckily) grab the "day" of the 7 month window . It was easy after that .......I just added the nights I needed. After it was all over, I just called member services and had them combine all the reservations into one, single , easy to manage reservation .
So it can be done .......but its a bit stressful only booking partial vacation reservations, only to HOPE you get everything you need ! It takes a bit of work, time , patience , and a lot of luck to book a studio at GCV at the 7 month window, for more than 1 night !

For what its worth , 1 bedrooms at GCV are WAY easier to book at the 7th month window , so if you have enough points , its the easier way (and way less stressful) to go ! We have stayed in 1 bedrooms at GCV , and they are fantastic !

 

[deedubb]

For 2 years in a row, I have been able to snag a week in a 1bdrm at 7 months for August. I got lucky this year, as I had been watching availability for a few days prior to my booking window and there was none. Seems like people were walking their reservations, but when my date came up, I was able to get it. You have to be on-line right at 7 am though. I think getting a studio at 7 months would be very difficult.

 

[emchen]

Personally I think there would have to be a very large reallocation to have much impact. DVC owners are value seekers- hence why the older resorts with lower points go quick, value rooms go quicker, cheap seasons fly off the shelves etc. Yes, they may (should really) reduce 1 bed cost and increase studio cost, as 2x the price (roughly what it is now) is too much. But any reallocation will not be that great (reducing it to say only 50% higher would mean a big increase in studio points and uproar) and ultimately they cannot sleep any more people. Thus any reallocation would in my view only have a nominal effect on 1 bed availability as the points will not change that much, and people will still say they can have 80% more vacations with the same points by choosing studios.

(snip)

Hey, I said the same as you:

(Snip)

If that is the case, the demand pattern for studios and 1BR villas will still be hard to change until studio cost is near equal to 1BR villas or vice versa. Just in case, I am closing on a VGC resale contract to use exclusively at VGC like KPeterso:

 

[amypetecar]

Waitlisting is a viable option - i once had a waitlist comethrough with only a week to go!