CDC Color Coded COVID-19 Ship Status

[Snowwhyt]

Even the best of the tests have about a 30% false negative rate - as in you are actually infected but it says you are not about 30% of the time.

The estimated incubation period (the time between catching the virus and symptom onset) is 5-6 days on average, ranging from 1 to 14 days. So if you caught it yesterday and are tested today you will probably test negative as you are likely still your incubation period and don't have enough of a viral load for the test to show positive. Perhaps you start to show symptoms on day 6. Or perhaps you end up being infected but one of the ones who never show symptoms for the whole time you are sick. Hence the 14 day mandatory quarantine period they put new crew under regardless of test status.

I thought that was the first test that had immediately been discontinued with terrible false numbers. Largely due to operator error. I thought the CDC Found that an acceptable rate and went with a different, more reliable test a few weeks later.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I thought that was the first test that had immediately been discontinued with terrible false numbers. Largely due to operator error. I thought the CDC Found that an acceptable rate and went with a different, more reliable test a few weeks later.

The main tests in use still have a high false negative rate.

Generally speaking, if you're going to have inaccuracies you want false positives.

 

[I_love_Cruising]

The main tests in use still have a high false negative rate.

Generally speaking, if you're going to have inaccuracies you want false positives.

False positives are just as dangerous as false negatives. You could be treated for an illness that you don't have. Especially wit covid19 this could be disastrous, because all treatments have bad side effects.

We should aim for accurate testing and try to eliminate both, false positives and false negatives.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

False positives are just as dangerous as false negatives. You could be treated for an illness that you don't have. Especially wit covid19 this could be disastrous, because all treatments have bad side effects.

We should aim for accurate testing and try to eliminate both, false positives and false negatives.

Well, right now treatment for C19 follows symptoms. If you are largely asymptomatic you get told to go home and stay there. This is a lot safer than the false negative option, where you believe you don't have it and go forth.

So while it is best to be accurate, with C19 right now the false negative is a lot worse.

 

[T & R]

In my area, people who have tested positive are not allowed to come back to work until they can produce a negative test. So you got these guys going down testing positive every day hoping to get that negative test so that they can get back to work and back to earning. Well the problem is, our system just reports a positive test, doesn't matter if it's the same guy every day. So you got 4 or 5 positive tests reported when really it's just one guy. You then multiply that by the number of other people dong the same thing and the reporting numbers are now all out of whack.

 

[I_love_Cruising]

Well, right now treatment for C19 follows symptoms. If you are largely asymptomatic you get told to go home and stay there. This is a lot safer than the false negative option, where you believe you don't have it and go forth.

So while it is best to be accurate, with C19 right now the false negative is a lot worse.

That's true for asymptomatic patients not for symptomatic ones, pneumonia is treated very different than covid19.
And you were "generally speaking", so not covid19 specific.

My safety concern is with the patient not the spreading. We may have talked about different risks.

Even if you get a false negative, you should not go forth as if you're not contagious. Since the beginning of the pandemic we have been told to assume to be contagious at all times and take the necessary precautions so keep others safe. That is how we keep this virus in check.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Even if you get a false negative, you should not go forth as if you're not contagious. Since the beginning of the pandemic we have been told to assume to be contagious at all times and take the necessary precautions so keep others safe. That is how we keep this virus in check.

However, that is not how anyone is behaving, and even if you read cruise threads people want to have people get tests within 48 hours and be cleared to sail. So people definitely assume negative is freeeeeeeee.

 

[T & R]

However, that is not how anyone is behaving, and even if you read cruise threads people want to have people get tests within 48 hours and be cleared to sail. So people definitely assume negative is freeeeeeeee.

Not necessarily free, just it's as good as we're going to get. You have people come on here and say that you can have a low viral load so the test comes back negative and then you make it on board and spread it. Well that would be true even if there were a vaccine (which there is not). Even if you get vaccinated you could carry a viral load. A vaccine does not prevent you from getting a virus, it only helps protect you from a virus. Being vaccinated does not eliminate your chances of getting sick it just lessens them. Take measles for example, you can still get the measles even with the measles vaccine. You can still get sick with a specific strain of flu, even with the flu vaccine for that strain. Vaccines just help protect you from illness, they do not totally prevent you from that illness. No doctor is going to give you a measles vaccine and tell you that you are now safe from getting the measles. If he/she does, they are not being honest. All they can tell you is that your chances of contracting it are significantly lessened but not totally eliminated. So with the above in mind, if we go by all the people who want to hide until there is a cure, then there will never be cruising again.

 

[mab2012]

Not necessarily free, just it's as good as we're going to get. You have people come on here and say that you can have a low viral load so the test comes back negative and then you make it on board and spread it. Well that would be true even if there were a vaccine (which there is not). Even if you get vaccinated you could carry a viral load. A vaccine does not prevent you from getting a virus, it only helps protect you from a virus. Being vaccinated does not eliminate your chances of getting sick it just lessens them. Take measles for example, you can still get the measles even with the measles vaccine. You can still get sick with a specific strain of flu, even with the flu vaccine for that strain. Vaccines just help protect you from illness, they do not totally prevent you from that illness. No doctor is going to give you a measles vaccine and tell you that you are now safe from getting the measles. If he/she does, they are not being honest. All they can tell you is that your chances of contracting it are significantly lessened but not totally eliminated. So with the above in mind, if we go by all the people who want to hide until there is a cure, then there will never be cruising again.

So FWIW I'm with you, insofar as I think much of the response to this virus has been unreasonable, and I would be happy to get on a cruise ship tomorrow if I thought I could have a reasonably normal experience and be assured of being allowed off at the end of it.

BUT... cruises are tricky. Absent a "solution" (vaccine, effective treatment, or whatever), every single person boarding that ship, including crew, would have to understand and be willing to accept the very real risk of contracting COVID while on board. And there would have to be assurance that all passengers would be allowed to debark at the end of the cruise, regardless of COVID status on the ship. Sadly, I think we are still a very long way from being there.

The big difference between what you describe and a scenario where most of the passengers and crew are vaccinated (or have obtained natural immunity), is speed and ease of transmission. If most people have some level of immunity, even if imperfect, and someone brings on their low viral load, most people who come in contact will not contract or further transmit it. But right now, with low levels of immunity in the population, that low viral load could spread like wildfire.

This is likely exactly what happened on the WBPC cruise, by the way. I'm willing to bet that whoever brought it on would have had undetectable levels at the time of embarkation, and probably wasn't infected at all 48h prior. Otherwise we would have seen symptoms on board far sooner than we did. Granted, shorter cruises would help with this. An asymptomatic individual coming on with a low viral load would have less time to become infectious and start the chain of transmission. But all it would take is one crew member to contract it, and all bets are off.

 

[T & R]

Cruising is tricky because CDC has made it such by singling them out and no other businesses. Why has only cruising got a color coded whatever thing? Today you can buy a Greyhound bus ticket from NYC to L.A. and ride that bus for the approx 3 day trip confined on the bus and definitely within 6 feet of others. Occasionally the bus will stop for meal breaks and you can get out for a bit and spread or contract as much virus as you can prior to getting back on to continue the trip to the next small town stop where you can repeat your Covid spread. After your 3 day spread fest when the bus trip is over and you get to L.A., the CDC is not there saying you have to stay on the bus until everyone is deemed Covid free. If the CDC does this for a 3 day Dream cruise, we all just accept it but other businesses just get a pass. If there truly was a war on Covid then the CDC would regulate, restrict or ban all high risk businesses and not just single out cruising.

All I'm saying is there will never be a cruise that is entirely safe and there will never be a cruise that has no risk, ever. Measles is one of the most highly contagious diseases there is and can be spread prior to symptoms. It's so contagious that if you have a room of 100 vaccinated people and one has it, approximately 3 will develop measles. Keep in mind that's a room with vaccinated people. Only gets worse when you count the non-vaccinated or you factor in 4500 crew and guests. Flu has even worse stats, you can be vaccinated for a specific strain of flu and still have up to a 50% chance of developing that strain of flu upon exposure. It is my belief that a Covid vaccine (which does not exist) would not be any different on it's effectivity than other vaccines that have had years more research and study.

The best thing going for us is exposure and heard immunity. Coronavirus was first identified in humans in the 1960's and had prolly been around longer than that. We read stories and try to understand why some get Covid and fall extremely ill while others get it and didn't even know they had it. Covid is a strain of the Coronavirus. So it is my belief that the people who get Covid and have little or no symptoms had already been exposed to some strain of Coronavirus in their lifetime. Although Covid is a different strain of Coronavirus than the person may have been exposed to prior, the body/immune system may not respond as harsh since it had already dealt with a form of Coronavirus in the past. Not saying this part is true but I would love to see some research to see if maybe this could be one of the many reasons why there is such a wide range of physical reactions to the virus. Exposure to ever changing strains of viruses, germs and bacteria is a must for the survival of any species. Otherwise your species becomes weaker and weaker to the point where it can no longer survive in our planet's harsh environment.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Why has only cruising got a color coded whatever thing? Today you can buy a Greyhound bus ticket from NYC to L.A. and ride that bus for the approx 3 day trip confined on the bus and definitely within 6 feet of others. Occasionally the bus will stop for meal breaks and you can get out for a bit and spread or contract as much virus as you can prior to getting back on to continue the trip to the next small town stop where you can repeat your Covid spread. After your 3 day spread fest when the bus trip is over and you get to L.A., the CDC is not there saying you have to stay on the bus until everyone is deemed Covid free.

Biggest difference - a whole ship of possible COVID-19 patients are basically stuck out at sea (so to speak). And onboard medical facilities are not equipped to deal with major illnesses or large numbers of cases (of any illness/injury). Ports (not just US ports) do not want 3,000+ people showing up on their doorstep with a highly communicable disease, especially if their hospitals are already dealing with large numbers of their own citizens.

If a busload of people start showing signs of illness, they stop in the next town that has a major hospital to deal with the problem. A busload of sick people, while a fairly large number (45-60 people), often will not overwhelm local facilities.

As to herd immunity - I've seen it reported that you don't achieve herd immunity until at least 60% of the population has had the disease. I think we're at around 15-20% now. It's going to be a while.

 

[T & R]

Biggest difference - a whole ship of possible COVID-19 patients are basically stuck out at sea (so to speak). And onboard medical facilities are not equipped to deal with major illnesses or large numbers of cases (of any illness/injury). Ports (not just US ports) do not want 3,000+ people showing up on their doorstep with a highly communicable disease, especially if their hospitals are already dealing with large numbers of their own citizens.

If a busload of people start showing signs of illness, they stop in the next town that has a major hospital to deal with the problem. A busload of sick people, while a fairly large number (45-60 people), often will not overwhelm local facilities.

As to herd immunity - I've seen it reported that you don't achieve herd immunity until at least 60% of the population has had the disease. I think we're at around 15-20% now. It's going to be a while.

The 3K showing up on a cruise ship Covid positive is just a scare tactic used to justify the current treatment of the cruise industry. Many people just don't get the virus and they are not sure why. That is one of the things that doctors find so puzzling about the Diamond Princess. Less than 20% on board got it and of the 20%, over half had no symptoms and didn't even know they were ill. With a lack of medical explanation for this fact, it is my belief that people who have already been exposed to a different strain of Coronavirus at some point in their life have developed immunity or resistance to being infected with Covid. As far as 3k positive people showing up on Florida's doorstep, the virus is already here, 10K positive cases in Florida yesterday alone. So the thought that banning cruises has had any positive effect is without proof and is pure speculation. By the rate of current infection it looks like there are many more industries the CDC should be focused on rather than cruising. But to date cruising has been the only industry receiving the CDC wrath. As far as the buses go, you are correct one bus would only be 45-60 people. The problem is there is significantly more than one bus and many more bus riders in the U.S. than cruise passengers in any given day. So the danger from buses would be much higher than cruise ships but to date they are still unregulated by the CDC. I also agree with you that heard immunity is going to take a while. Now that we are trying to slow the spread what would have been over in months is now going to take years.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

The 3K showing up on a cruise ship Covid positive is just a scare tactic used to justify the current treatment of the cruise industry.

Could be. But, of course, the CDC is a US entity. Cruise lines are not. CDC can ask for whatever requirements they deem necessary to ensure viruses, for example, are not introduced into the population any quicker than they would be had a foreign source not brought it in. They can't be sure that the cleaning/hygienic practices onboard are what they decide should be protocol are met.

 

[CmdrThor]

July 7 update, Dream, Fantasy, and Wonder all still provisionally green. What I find interesting is only a single ship is fully green and approved to use commercial travel to repatriate crew. Since many lines have been going to Barbados, Curacao, etc to repatriate crew I wonder how many will even take the effort to get fully approved to use commercial travel from the United States for crew repatriation.

 

[Donna3271]

Forgive me all for not reading through the thread before I ask... Any update on the Magic? Any thoughts on the October Bermuda cruises? I am actually crossing fingers it is cancelled. I am nervous to go.

 

[Mommb]

Any update on the Magic? Any thoughts on the October Bermuda cruises?

The Magic isn't listed on the CDC reports since it is not in or near US waters. The Magic is staying near/at Dover, England, presumably until its scheduled dry dock. There have been no announcements about exactly when it is returning to the US.

 

[T & R]

What I find interesting is only a single ship is fully green and approved to use commercial travel to repatriate crew.

Since I've been checking that CDC site, that same ship, Grand Celebration, has always been "fully green" and the sole ship that can use commercial travel. The only thing I can think of is maybe it's parked and empty with correctly filed paperwork.

 

[Donna3271]

The Magic isn't listed on the CDC reports since it is not in or near US waters. The Magic is staying near/at Dover, England, presumably until its scheduled dry dock. There have been no announcements about exactly when it is returning to the US.

TUSM for the copious reply!!!