Coronavirus and flying into China

So update at 9:30 PM on Johns Hopkins website:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

9,776 confirmed cases

213 deaths (204 are in Wuhan itself)

187 recovered.

NO deaths outside of China so far.

The recovery number is probably the most important number here. The fatality rate seems to be fairly steady between 2-4% (similar to the 1918 Spanish influenza) thus far as the cases grow, BUT the recovery rate listed above means there’s still a big unknown in the survival rate. Either this has a lengthy but fairly sure recovery period that hasn’t been shown yet because were so early and people will be sick for a few weeks and then fine OR those in hospital will have a lengthy but potentially more fatal outcome which would mean the fatality rate is lagging but much higher.

(Disclaimer- keep in mind the fatality rate can only be calculated at this time from people that are severe enough to seek treatment. There could be (and I believe the CDC models are showing) that they actual # of cases is much higher but only 25% of cases become severe. Those sick at home with milder cases aren’t in these numbers- BUT they are still capable of spreading it).

Kept in raw number perspective this is small, but the spread is fast enough that governments are quarantining on a massive scale and the US is shutting down borders to non-citizens who hav been in the affected region. This is moving very fast for a new infectious disease (in comparison the Ebola virus and SARS were almost glacial), and government actions seems very reactionary and outsized for the relative small numbers.
 
The recovery number is probably the most important number here. The fatality rate seems to be fairly steady between 2-4% (similar to the 1918 Spanish influenza) thus far as the cases grow, BUT the recovery rate listed above means there’s still a big unknown in the survival rate. Either this has a lengthy but fairly sure recovery period that hasn’t been shown yet because were so early and people will be sick for a few weeks and then fine OR those in hospital will have a lengthy but potentially more fatal outcome which would mean the fatality rate is lagging but much higher.

(Disclaimer- keep in mind the fatality rate can only be calculated at this time from people that are severe enough to seek treatment. There could be (and I believe the CDC models are showing) that they actual # of cases is much higher but only 25% of cases become severe. Those sick at home with milder cases aren’t in these numbers- BUT they are still capable of spreading it).

Kept in raw number perspective this is small, but the spread is fast enough that governments are quarantining on a massive scale and the US is shutting down borders to non-citizens who hav been in the affected region. This is moving very fast for a new infectious disease (in comparison the Ebola virus and SARS were almost glacial), and government actions seems very reactionary and outsized for the relative small numbers.

I’ve been looking at the recovery number and wondering why it isn’t larger. Also, it seems strange to me that we aren’t hearing more about the recovery of the 7 people here in the US. I would think at least a couple of them have improved with treatment.
 
there's less than 200 people outside of China that have even been diagnosed, so getting good stats on recoveries this early is difficult.

Thailand claims that they had 19 cases so far and 7 recovered
 


There is a possible case in my state now--in my alma mater's town located approximately 30mins from me. Person just travelled from Wuhan but test results won't likely be available til later in the week. Presently the hospital where the patient is at is still open but the patient is being isolated.
Update to my earlier post: test results came back negative so that's good news 🙂.
 
I just found out from my DH that one of his employees is probably stuck in China. He went home to visit his family for the Lunar New Year. He's a good kid who my DH and his business originally hired as an intern from our alma mater. I'm worried about him.
 


As a recent China expat, I have been keeping in close contact with my colleagues in Beijing. All schools closed indefinitely. The teachers are stuck in their apartments with minimal going out. If interested, check this link for daily updates from Beijing's online news source for expats:

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2...k0Q0jl92wktvXh5b_-zp_k9rYomMkQq_EuIRTzbeV9w4c
As of today, 30,000 known or suspected cases, 304 dead.
 
Not sure which thread to revive, but this is as good as any.

There are 156 evacuees from the Diamond Princess now under quarantine at the base hotel at Travis Air Force Base. I suppose they could theoretically stay there, but unfortunately it doesn't have the medical infrastructure to attend to their needs. It's on a military base where ostensibly they can ensure as little contact with the outside as possible. There has been talk about moving them to a couple of different locations, including an empty former mental hospital in Orange County, California as well as a FEMA facility in Alabama. The problem is local opposition including going to federal courts to stop any transfer.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...uise-ship-victims-warned-to-be-ready-to-move/https://abcnews.go.com/Health/feds-...oronavirus-patients-alabama/story?id=69162771
This is becoming a real hot potato with pretty much any location subject to local opposition.
 

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