Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[Itsnotmykitchen]

According to Bruce Alyward, head of the WHO mission to China that just returned, the thinking is that the HCW who caught coronavirus got from home. How they know this is unclear (to me it's just more CYA talk from China) but that's what he said.

China has a pretty modern health-care system. In fact, they have more beds per capita than the US does. Now, whether or not they have the skill level is debatable, but they are far from a third-world country in terms of their medical care.

I think we can attribute the higher death rates in Hubei to them being overwhelmed- I don't think we can attribute it to being incompetent. Which means the same high death rates can happen here.

I’m always skeptical on reported numbers, such as hospital beds per capita (Hospital beds don’t equate to much given this is a country with ghost towns that probably have ghost hospitals), from China but it does seem like Wuhan’s population density is significantly greater than any populous US city so the ability of diseases to overwhelm a metropolitan healthcare system seems far greater in China.

 

[OSUZorba]

Because it takes time to manufacture vaccine.

The vaccine for phase 1 has already been shipped to NIH. It took 42 days from genome posting until they had gotten through animal testing and made all units needed for phase 1 testing. The NIH then plans on taking another 42 days to start phase 1, with the doses they already have.

I'm sure they are doing important stuff, but I wish I knew what.

 

[QueenElinor]

I’m always skeptical on reported numbers, such as hospital beds per capita (Hospital beds don’t equate to much given this is a country with ghost towns that probably have ghost hospitals), from China but it does seem like Wuhan’s population density is significantly greater than any populous US city so the ability of diseases to overwhelm a metropolitan healthcare system seems far greater in China.

Yes, I agree that not all hospital beds are created equal.
I also saw where Hubei theoretically had 86,000 hospital beds. And still, a worldwide total number of cases less than that, even if all were hospitalized at the same time it shouldn't overwhelm the capacity.

Now, we know that people have been turned away in large numbers, some even left to die at home unfortunately.

So something here is hinky. Either the stats on the beds are waaaay off (I kind of doubt it, as you can see it's been trending up over the decades) or there are far more cases than they will admit.

I know where I'd place my money.

 

[jknezek]

Yes, I agree that not all hospital beds are created equal.
I also saw where Hubei theoretically had 86,000 hospital beds. And still, a worldwide total number of cases less than that, even if all were hospitalized at the same time it shouldn't overwhelm the capacity.

Now, we know that people have been turned away in large numbers, some even left to die at home unfortunately.

So something here is hinky. Either the stats on the beds are waaaay off (I kind of doubt it, as you can see it's been trending up over the decades) or there are far more cases than they will admit.

I know where I'd place my money.

Not all hospital beds are going to be devoted to Virus patients. This link shows that in 2018, on average, 92% of Hubei Province hospital beds were occupied.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/225528/bed-occupancy-rate-in-chinese-hospitals-by-region/
So it would be easy to overwhelm the other 8%. That being said, I do believe the number of cases was drastically undercounted and continues to be so in China.

 

[QueenElinor]

Not all hospital beds are going to be devoted to Virus patients. This link shows that in 2018, on average, 92% of Hubei Province hospital beds were occupied.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/225528/bed-occupancy-rate-in-chinese-hospitals-by-region/
So it would be easy to overwhelm the other 8%. That being said, I do believe the number of cases was drastically undercounted and continues to be so in China.

Sure, but there are usually quite a few elective cases that can be postponed, and semi-urgent cases that unfortunately do get pushed aside for more critically ill people. And of course, virus patients don't all come at once, and not all are hospitalized (80% of cases are mild). The numbers still just don't add up.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Not all hospital beds are going to be devoted to Virus patients. This link shows that in 2018, on average, 92% of Hubei Province hospital beds were occupied.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/225528/bed-occupancy-rate-in-chinese-hospitals-by-region/
So it would be easy to overwhelm the other 8%. That being said, I do believe the number of cases was drastically undercounted and continues to be so in China.

I would think with 92% average occupancy the hospitals must be overwhelmed quite often even without an outbreak. Especially if this report is accurate about there being 6.5 beds per 1000.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51224504
That’s almost 70,000 people being hospitalized at any given time. I’m in NYC and I think there’s like 25,000 hospital beds total.

I’m leaning towards any and all of these numbers from China being made up.

 

[Farro]

I would think with 92% average occupancy the hospitals must be overwhelmed quite often even without an outbreak. Especially if this report is accurate about there being 6.5 beds per 1000.

That’s almost 70,000 people being hospitalized at any given time. I’m in NYC and I think there’s like 25,000 hospital beds total.

I’m leaning towards any and all of these numbers from China being made up.

Wuhan has 11.8 million people alone. 58.5 million in Hubei Province.

In all of China I have no problem believing there are 70,000 hospital beds (including rural or makeshift)

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Wuhan has 11.8 million people alone. 58.5 million in Hubei Province.

In all of China I have no problem believing there are 70,000 hospital beds (including rural or makeshift)

Based on those numbers there are normally 70,000 people hospitalized in just the city of Wuhan. That seems like a lot.

For comparison, NYC has 25,000 beds and an occupancy rate of around 65% so that’s roughly 16,250 people hospitalized at any given time. Wuhan is not 4 times bigger than NYC. I would think their hospitals are always a little strained if the numbers are correct.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

The vaccine for phase 1 has already been shipped to NIH. It took 42 days from genome posting until they had gotten through animal testing and made all units needed for phase 1 testing. The NIH then plans on taking another 42 days to start phase 1, with the doses they already have.

I'm sure they are doing important stuff, but I wish I knew what.

There’s a big difference between manufacturing a few thousand vaccine doses for a clinical trial and scaling up to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses.

 

[OSUZorba]

There’s a big difference between manufacturing a few thousand vaccine doses for a clinical trial and scaling up to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses.

I know that. I'm specifically talking about the Phase 1 trails. The NIH got the doses this week and they hope to start the phase 1 trail with 20 - 25 people by the end of April.

 

[CampbellzSoup]

Blows my mind the people who can come up with cures and vaccines, they should be honored and celebratedx

 

[adam.adbe]

Based on those numbers there are normally 70,000 people hospitalized in just the city of Wuhan. That seems like a lot.

For comparison, NYC has 25,000 beds and an occupancy rate of around 65% so that’s roughly 16,250 people hospitalized at any given time. Wuhan is not 4 times bigger than NYC. I would think their hospitals are always a little strained if the numbers are correct.

thanks to the high cost of retail healthcare in the US, the tendency here is for hospital stays to be significantly shorter than in other countries.

 

[adam.adbe]

Blows my mind the people who can come up with cures and vaccines, they should be honored and celebratedx

for some reason that went out of fashion.

 

[Brianstl]

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

thanks to the high cost of retail healthcare in the US, the tendency here is for hospital stays to be significantly shorter than in other countries.

Except a number of European countries have similar rates, Netherlands is actually lower, and a number of studies seem to consider over 90% occupancy to be unsafe. The OECD recommends that it not exceed 85% and a lot European countries do not have the bed per capita that Wuhan does so they are dealing with a smaller percentage of patients to begin with.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168851019301563

 

[HuskieJohn]

No idea how long their Spring Break is typically but I would not be surprised if the Japan government told Disney Tokyo to close its doors for now.

All schools in Japan told to close until April over virus outbreak
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/27/national/hokkaido-coronavirus-school/#.XlfYxWhKiUk

 

[Brianstl]

No idea how long their Spring Break is typically but I would not be surprised if the Japan government told Disney Tokyo to close its doors for now.

All schools in Japan told to close until April over virus outbreak
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/27/national/hokkaido-coronavirus-school/#.XlfYxWhKiUk

I think the health ministry in Japan has been trying to nudge entities like The Oriental Land Company to shut down their venues on their own for almost a week now. I think if they don't do it soon, the government will step in and do it for them.

 

[PaulaSB12]

Its not surprising considering they shut all cinemas

 

[Farro]

I hope our federal/local government(s) is/are careful when advising shut-downs. Not everything needs to be closed.

Movie theaters? Restaurants? Some of that should be a person's choice whether they want to risk or not.

Majority of people in US would not become severely ill from Covid-19. Then it's up to individuals what risks they are comfortable with.

Elderly and immuno-compromised would probably be more careful in where they choose to go, who they choose to see.

 

[Brianstl]

I hope our federal/local government(s) is/are careful when advising shut-downs. Not everything needs to be closed.

Movie theaters? Restaurants? Some of that should be a person's choice whether they want to risk or not.

Majority of people in US would not become severely ill from Covid-19. Then it's up to individuals what risks they are comfortable with.

Elderly and immuno-compromised would probably be more careful in where they choose to go, who they choose to see.

The problem is not the majority of people getting severely ill. What you try to avoid with the shut downs is enough people getting ill enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. It would only take 0.1% of the population being extremely ill from it at one time to more than fill every empty hospital bed in the country.