Disney's China Parks Closed Due to Coronavirus

mixmastertoy

"Disney Christmas Decorating Master"
Joined
May 27, 2011
Exactly... there will be a ton more cases! Not what anyone wants to hear but its true ... this is going to be interesting esp leading up to the Olympics ... its ironic 4 years ago the Zika virus came up around the same time.
 

adam.adbe

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 17, 2015
And considering those 3 people had recently traveled to Wuhan, and came back on planes, and the incubation period is 2 weeks, we can expect more cases in the US imminently.
If your point is that people were on the plane with them so they are now at risk, then that's a stretch not currently backed by facts. Generally respiratory viruses are most communicable when symptoms are initially presenting. These subjects were still in the incubation period and thus currently believed not to be in a communicative phase. Also, thus far it seems this particular coronavirus needs fairly close physical contact to spread, so the likelihood is pretty high that anyone on those planes who goes onto to develop symptoms was already a carrier themselves.

The concern is that because this seems to be a newish virus (in terms of making the jump to humans), it could quickly adapt to incubate more rapidly, and spread more easily. That's what has China spooked.
 
  • Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    From Guan Yi, one of the virologists who worked to identify SARs.

    A bigger outbreak is certain,” said Guan Yi, a virologist who helped identify severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003. He estimated – “conservatively,” he said – that this outbreak could be 10 times bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few “super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country. “We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control, he told Caixin magazine from self-imposed quarantine after visiting Wuhan. “What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.”

    “I’ve seen it all: bird flu, SARS, influenza A, swine fever and the rest. But the Wuhan pneumonia makes me feel extremely powerless,” he told Caixin. “Most of the past epidemics were controllable, but this time, I’m petrified.”

    https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Wuhan-quarantine-expands-as-Chinese-fear-14997682.php
     

    tcufrog

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jul 18, 2012
    A case was reported yesterday in a small, university-dominated city a few hours from my house. The city only has a population of about 119,000 and only has a regional airport. The infected didn't fly there straight from China. He/she probably drove there.
     

    anthony2k7

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 4, 2007
    If your point is that people were on the plane with them so they are now at risk, then that's a stretch not currently backed by facts. Generally respiratory viruses are most communicable when symptoms are initially presenting. These subjects were still in the incubation period and thus currently believed not to be in a communicative phase. Also, thus far it seems this particular coronavirus needs fairly close physical contact to spread, so the likelihood is pretty high that anyone on those planes who goes onto to develop symptoms was already a carrier themselves.

    The concern is that because this seems to be a newish virus (in terms of making the jump to humans), it could quickly adapt to incubate more rapidly, and spread more easily. That's what has China spooked.
    If the carrier was at day maybe 12 onwards while on the plane though, then those on the flight with them wont be showing symptoms until another 14 or so days later.

    Basically its impossible to know for at least another week how far it spread from the initial infectees before the quarantine went into action.

    However, so far iv not seen any mention of confirmed victims who were not themselves in china I believe so we likewise dont know how virulent it really is yet.
     

    DLgal

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 12, 2013
    If your point is that people were on the plane with them so they are now at risk, then that's a stretch not currently backed by facts. Generally respiratory viruses are most communicable when symptoms are initially presenting. These subjects were still in the incubation period and thus currently believed not to be in a communicative phase. Also, thus far it seems this particular coronavirus needs fairly close physical contact to spread, so the likelihood is pretty high that anyone on those planes who goes onto to develop symptoms was already a carrier themselves.

    The concern is that because this seems to be a newish virus (in terms of making the jump to humans), it could quickly adapt to incubate more rapidly, and spread more easily. That's what has China spooked.
    No, my point was those planes originated in Wuhan or had passengers who had visited there so many of those passengers may have brought it back and haven't shown symptoms yet.
     
  • 5kidsmommy

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 16, 2013
    If the carrier was at day maybe 12 onwards while on the plane though, then those on the flight with them wont be showing symptoms until another 14 or so days later.

    Basically its impossible to know for at least another week how far it spread from the initial infectees before the quarantine went into action.

    However, so far iv not seen any mention of confirmed victims who were not themselves in china I believe so we likewise dont know how virulent it really is yet.
    This was my concern but I'm now right at the two week time frame. I didn't fly to China but I spent several hours in Sea-Tac exactly two weeks ago. I admit I was a tiny bit worried when I heard the first confirmed US case had been in the airport. I never get paranoid about these viruses but this one does have me a little worried.
     

    adam.adbe

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 17, 2015
    No, my point was those planes originated in Wuhan or had passengers who had visited there so many of those passengers may have brought it back and haven't shown symptoms yet.
    Gotcha. Hopefully though any of these travelers who do start experiencing symptoms will be smart enough to self-quarantine, and call their GP.
     

    Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    This was my concern but I'm now right at the two week time frame. I didn't fly to China but I spent several hours in Sea-Tac exactly two weeks ago. I admit I was a tiny bit worried when I heard the first confirmed US case had been in the airport. I never get paranoid about these viruses but this one does have me a little worried.
    I am the same way with these things normally, but the response in China definitely makes this one feel different.
     
  • Fido Chuckwagon

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Apr 29, 2018
    It's worth reminding people that the 'flu has already killed more than 8000 people in the US alone this season.

    The flu has a mortality rate of .01 percent. This virus appears to be 250-500 times as deadly as the flu. If the equivalent number of people were infected with this virus as the flu you would be looking at 2 million to 4 million dead. I’m not saying this virus is as transmissible as the flu, but comparing it to the flu is comparing apples to oranges.
     

    DBDiz

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Mar 24, 2014
    Considering we are talking about China where the government controls the flow of information and the response they have put in place, I suspect the number of infected and dead are much higher than reported.

    The quarantines they have put in place are going to be worthless, much of the Chinese New Year travel had occurred before it was put in place. Given the incubation period of two weeks, it is safe to say this virus has spread across much of China at this point. That is why they are eliminating public gatherings across the country. It is a desperate attempt to limit the number infected nationwide.
    I don't have a source, so take this with a grain of salt, but I read something earlier today about many cases of death being wrongfully attributed to pneumonia, and that the bodies have already been cremated so they are unable to re-diagnose.
     

    DLgal

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Feb 12, 2013
    I don't have a source, so take this with a grain of salt, but I read something earlier today about many cases of death being wrongfully attributed to pneumonia, and that the bodies have already been cremated so they are unable to re-diagnose.
    Well, they were likely correctly attributed to pneumonia, as this virus causes pneumonia almost immediately. They just were perhaps unaware of the origin of the pneumonia.
     

    Fido Chuckwagon

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Apr 29, 2018
    I’m trying to figure out what the break-point is for cancelling our trip to Disney World February 8-15. I guess public transmission within the US?
     

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