Do I understand what I am seeing on the R.A.T. correctly??

[Pluto777]

How can September -January be BUSIER than August? Is not August a month which schoolchildren are on vacation across America?

 

[Debbie Jean]

Food & Wine, Fall holidays, Christmas, Marathon, etc. and low point requirement to stay. DVC does not follow the Disney normal crowd calendar. September to January is the busiest DVC time of year. Popular rooms are gone even before you hit the 11 month booking window.

Although some children are still out of school in August, some have already returned, especially in the south. It's also hot, hot hot and point requirements are higher so availability is much better.

 

[CarolMN]

How can September -January be BUSIER than August? Is not August a month which schoolchildren are on vacation across America?

There are many DVC members who no longer have school age children in the home. Many are retired. There are also many members who home schoo!. There are international members with seasons opposite to the US.

Guess when those families prefer to visit?

 

[zavandor]

Easywdw had published a series of posts about January average wait times in the last years and he noticed a huge increase. Disney is good at manipulating the crowds with special offers and events and they've succeded to distribute crowds in periods when the parks where pratically dead. Truth is: there are no more off-seasons.

In Septembers, Moonligh events created a huge spike of requests for the party dates. Many resorts were sold out in categories that usually have availability way into the 7 months window in September and availability for adjacient dates was low as well. I have just booked a vacation that spans the 19th and I had more trouble than I used to (still, surprised that I got BWV for the party night ). Monlight events are mostly in traditionally slow periods for DVC.

 

[drusba]

The monday after marathon weekend in January to late Sep is DVC's low to moderate demand season at WDW, and that includes holidays during that period. Late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan is the high to extremely high demand season. See my 11 month and seven month posts here laying out the demand patterns: https://www.disboards.com/threads/11-month-window-what-time-online.3545821/#post-56490616 and https://www.disboards.com/threads/h...been-working-out.3549166/page-2#post-56615436.

Numerous factors contribute to the high demand in the late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan season, such as: (a) the continously increasing population of DVC owners who are older and no longer have to follow school schedules; (b) the fact that points needed during the high demand season are low except for three days around Thanksgiving and mid-Dec to end of Dec; (c) the popularity of Food & Wine and the never ending holiday events during that high demand season, beginning with Halloween events, which now start in Sep; (d) the growth of low point (25 to a 100) sales resulting from owners from years past being able to sell low point add-ons separate from the main contract, and from Disney's dropping its 160 point minimum new purchase rule in 2009 to 100 points and many times to as low as 50 points, and a large number of those sales are to new members who want to use the points in the low point season in the fall; and (e) the weather is usually ideal at least in Oct and Nov.

There are some periods in the low to moderate season that have high demand and those are the result of Disney created events, e.g., the time of highest demand right now during that period are the Princess half marathon weekend in Feb, the Star Wars race weekend in April, and the Moonlight Magic nights.

 

[Meriweather]

Aug is hot!

Our schools go back end of July

 

[crisi]

New to DVC?

DVC members are connoisseurs of low point values, good weather and formerly low crowds (on which some long time members have based their habits). They've done enough commando touring that they like events - like marathons or Food and Wine or the holiday decorations - but like the ones they can plan in advance (because of the booking windows). They often don't have kids (or kids at home). In our case we bought fifteen years ago when our kids were young - do you know what happens to preschoolers in fifteen years? - they become college students who don't travel with you, freeing you up to travel without referring to a school schedule.

DVC members with kids in school are likely to work school schedules or - especially when the kids are elementary age - just pull them for a week.

Most of the South seems to go back to school early (up here in Minnesota school starts around Labor Day - and we've done end of August trips - they are hot, but the crowds are pretty light and room availability is pretty good) With half the country being in school still in June, and the other half starting up in August - plus international traveler, homeschoolers, year round districts, and people who just pull their kids for the week, local school schedules are not a great predictor for crowds.

 

[supersnoop]

How can September -January be BUSIER than August? Is not August a month which schoolchildren are on vacation across America?

Not “busier”, per se, but higher demand. DVC should be booked at 98%-100% capacity all year round. But, yes, the fall books up very quickly. Folks here on the forums are quick to point out that DVC’s demand doesn’t line up with the traditional Disney demand.

 

[William Ades]

I've given up on even trying to figure out the best times. There is no such thing as high or low demand anymore IMO. I had a hell of a time getting 2 nights in February. I've just accepted that I'll check the RAT for when we would like to go, and if it's available book it. If not, figure out another time or stalk the RAT.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I've given up on even trying to figure out the best times. There is no such thing as high or low demand anymore IMO. I had a hell of a time getting 2 nights in February. I've just accepted that I'll check the RAT for when we would like to go, and if it's available book it. If not, figure out another time or stalk the RAT.

You shouldn’t go when you think it’s the best time for lower crowds you should go when it’s best for you.

Personally I don’t care if the crowd levels are low, moderate or high. I go when it suits me and my family. I’m fine with only 2-3 hours of park time per day. I know I’ll be back so I’m not missing anything. I do however prefer to go with weather is warm/hot.

What I do care about is spending time with my family. I often have a busy schedule so my vaca time is important.

 

[Roxyfire]

New to DVC?

DVC members are connoisseurs of low point values, good weather and formerly low crowds (on which some long time members have based their habits). They've done enough commando touring that they like events - like marathons or Food and Wine or the holiday decorations - but like the ones they can plan in advance (because of the booking windows). They often don't have kids (or kids at home). In our case we bought fifteen years ago when our kids were young - do you know what happens to preschoolers in fifteen years? - they become college students who don't travel with you, freeing you up to travel without referring to a school schedule.

DVC members with kids in school are likely to work school schedules or - especially when the kids are elementary age - just pull them for a week.

Most of the South seems to go back to school early (up here in Minnesota school starts around Labor Day - and we've done end of August trips - they are hot, but the crowds are pretty light and room availability is pretty good) With half the country being in school still in June, and the other half starting up in August - plus international traveler, homeschoolers, year round districts, and people who just pull their kids for the week, local school schedules are not a great predictor for crowds.

Even for a parent with a middle schooler, I stick with early June and long weekends in October vs early/middle August. The point values are only a couple higher per night than early June, sure, but enough that it adds up. We also start school around the 20th and always have so I don't see it being that good to have such a big vacation and go right back to the first week of school. Seems way too disappointing!

 

[wdw4rfam]

Yup. September-January is peak DVC time. Points are low. DVC trends don’t follow busy times, they follow point charts.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Food & Wine now is starting in late August and goes through almost mid-November. DVC owners love F&W. And any Disney Run event.

 

[Pluto777]

Food & Wine now is starting in late August and goes through almost mid-November. DVC owners love F&W. And any Disney Run event.

You know exactly HOW late?

 

[CarolMN]

You know exactly HOW late?

Dates have not yet been announced for 2018. Should be soon, though.

 

[holden]

August is way too hot!