GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

Encouraging trendline on the # of new cases; hopefully this translates to lower admissions in 2 weeks and subsequent lower deaths in 4-6 weeks.

Deaths hopefully will peak within next 1-2 weeks then stabilize for a bit and track lower slowly if testing+ and hosp trend lower.

If WE are get a control of this; WE ALL need to really apply efforts to mitigate spread in our communities.
 
Encouraging trendline on the # of new cases; hopefully this translates to lower admissions in 2 weeks and subsequent lower deaths in 4-6 weeks.

Deaths hopefully will peak within next 1-2 weeks then stabilize for a bit and track lower slowly if testing+ and hosp trend lower.

If WE are get a control of this; WE ALL need to really apply efforts to mitigate spread in our communities.

Yes, hopefully at least the high level of new cases is slowing, but with Florida as open as it is, I doubt we'll see the curve completely crushed as in other states. More likely that they'll come down and find a new, still unacceptable plateau. But deaths will go up a bit from here if they follow a similar trend that other states saw. Not as high as in the northeast, but losing three thousand lives per week should be considered a tragedy by us all.
 
Yes, hopefully at least the high level of new cases is slowing, but with Florida as open as it is, I doubt we'll see the curve completely crushed as in other states. More likely that they'll come down and find a new, still unacceptable plateau. But deaths will go up a bit from here if they follow a similar trend that other states saw. Not as high as in the northeast, but losing three thousand lives per week should be considered a tragedy by us all.

It’s the long hauler effects of this virus that’s going to have the biggest impact on FL. We’re getting pretty good with treating it.
 
The thing to remember is, as many people IN Florida who are testing positive, think about how many tourists are carrying it home. I personally know of one couple who has been sick with covid after vacationing in Florida. I’m sure there are many, many more.
 


The thing to remember is, as many people IN Florida who are testing positive, think about how many tourists are carrying it home. I personally know of one couple who has been sick with covid after vacationing in Florida. I’m sure there are many, many more.

I think that is why a surge in the north east is expected in the future.
 
I think that is why a surge in the north east is expected in the future.

We're starting to go back up in NJ. 699 cases today, which is the highest in quite some time. Our governor continues to say that indoors is the problem, particularly indoor parties. He said that if we keep going up, they'll be forced to roll back to tighter restrictions. We still have no indoor dining, no gyms. Not sure what he's hinting at rolling back, but it doesn't seem like fun.
 


I’m not going to get encouraged by any small downward trends here in Florida while schools are closed. As schools begin to open over the next month here we’ll really see where things are headed.

I agree that’s the huge ticking time bomb. We have 56 million kids in K-12 in this country and the vast majority of them have been out of school since March. With prevalent community spread, bringing almost a sixth of the country back together indoors, daily, I don’t see how there won’t be at least a large bump in cases. If we get to mid-October and don’t see bigger numbers start to show up in the cities that went back into the schools, we’ll be in a much much better place.
 
I agree that’s the huge ticking time bomb. We have 56 million kids in K-12 in this country and the vast majority of them have been out of school since March. With prevalent community spread, bringing almost a sixth of the country back together indoors, daily, I don’t see how there won’t be at least a large bump in cases. If we get to mid-October and don’t see bigger numbers start to show up in the cities that went back into the schools, we’ll be in a much much better place.

Oh, it's going to be a nightmare. In my area, I give school two weeks to a month of this "hybrid learning", until the governor shuts it down, if it even starts. The other big, big problem is going to be colleges welcoming students back to campus. You can limit the number on campus, wear masks, etc....but you won't stop the flow of alcohol and parties. The fact that they're planning on college sports is also insanity. It shouldn't happen, but again, I don't think it will last long once the cases start to skyrocket.
 
It’s the long hauler effects of this virus that’s going to have the biggest impact on FL. We’re getting pretty good with treating it.
Practice makes perfect. Too much leads to burnout.

While we've made inroads on some practices and therapeutics like prone breathing and steroids and an antiviral, it is far from getting good and mortality rates are still rather high unfortunately.

By sheer numbers of hospitalizations, the number of dead is inevitable. What looked like a shockingly high number of 180,000 dead by end August back in April looks pretty close estimate back then.

No matter how we put lipstick on this virus, it is deadly and we all need to do better in prevention and using all viable tools available to achieve this

"An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure"
-Ben Franklin
 
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Encouraging trendline on the # of new cases; hopefully this translates to lower admissions in 2 weeks and subsequent lower deaths in 4-6 weeks.

Deaths hopefully will peak within next 1-2 weeks then stabilize for a bit and track lower slowly if testing+ and hosp trend lower.

If WE are get a control of this; WE ALL need to really apply efforts to mitigate spread in our communities.


According to my tracking, the encouraging trend is quite pronounced in Orange County. In fact, over the past two weeks, their new infection rate has declined by half.

On July 16 and 17, the Orange County 7-day moving average for new cases peaked at 599 cases per million. As of July 31, that 7-day moving average has dropped to 299 per million. Yes, a full 50% reduction.

Percent positive has remained relatively steady over the past two weeks, averaging 8.5%.

Seeing that the peak case reporting happened from mid/late June through about two weeks after the 4th of July weekend, graduation/holiday parties and get-togethers with lax physical distancing probably played a large role. They have been traced to the lion’s share of spread in our local area. Tourism also may have contributed, but the recent case decline in the face of increasing tourism would suggest that unguarded revelry is a more dominant suspect.

It will be interesting (and scary) to see if school openings and the Labor Day holiday bring a similar spike. After half a year of quarantine, people are getting fatigued and the temptation to slip up is great.
 
According to my tracking, the encouraging trend is quite pronounced in Orange County. In fact, over the past two weeks, their new infection rate has declined by half.

On July 16 and 17, the Orange County 7-day moving average for new cases peaked at 599 cases per million. As of July 31, that 7-day moving average has dropped to 299 per million. Yes, a full 50% reduction.

Percent positive has remained relatively steady over the past two weeks, averaging 8.5%.

Seeing that the peak case reporting happened from mid/late June through about two weeks after the 4th of July weekend, graduation/holiday parties and get-togethers with lax physical distancing probably played a large role. They have been traced to the lion’s share of spread in our local area. Tourism also may have contributed, but the recent case decline in the face of increasing tourism would suggest that unguarded revelry is a more dominant suspect.

It will be interesting (and scary) to see if school openings and the Labor Day holiday bring a similar spike. After half a year of quarantine, people are getting fatigued and the temptation to slip up is great.

Link to where you got all this data, please?
 
Link to where you got all this data, please?

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf
Orange County is about 3/4 way down the report. I feed the daily case numbers for Orange County into a spreadsheet and covert them to cases per million, to make them easier to compare to other areas of the country. For Orange County, I used a factor of 1.393 million based upon the latest US Census estimate from 2019.

Here are the numbers I have since I began tracking. Note that I don’t go back every day and check if previous days’ numbers have been adjusted, so some my numbers may not match the state report exactly. I figure that for practical purposes, the moving average will smooth out any daily differences. Apologies for the foray into math!




Orange County New CasesOrange County New Per MillionOrange County 7-Day Moving Average
June 12, 2020
June 13, 2020169121
June 14, 2020177127
June 15, 2020178128
June 16, 202013899
June 17, 2020210151
June 18, 2020340244
June 19, 2020331238158
June 20, 2020433311185
June 21, 2020211151189
June 22, 2020403289212
June 23, 2020556399255
June 24, 2020725520308
June 25, 20201032741379
June 26, 2020982705445
June 27, 2020832597486
June 28, 2020354254501
June 29, 2020289207489
June 30, 2020542389488
July 1, 2020554398470
July 2, 2020608436427
July 3, 20201164836445
July 4, 2020760546438
July 5, 2020374268440
July 6, 2020359258447
July 7, 2020422303435
July 8, 2020400287419
July 9, 2020545391413
July 10, 2020476342342
July 11, 20201355973403
July 12, 2020924663460
July 13, 2020437314468
July 14, 2020526378478
July 15, 20201379990579
July 16, 2020741532599
July 17, 2020473340598
July 18, 2020742533536
July 19, 2020340244476
July 20, 2020419301474
July 21, 2020677486489
July 22, 2020547393404
July 23, 2020686492398
July 24, 2020599430411
July 25, 2020422303378
July 26, 2020409294385
July 27, 2020432310387
July 28, 2020374268356
July 29, 2020408293342
July 30, 2020420302314
July 31, 2020450323299

Edited to correct the average formula in the first several rows. Thanks for informing me of the problem!
 
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http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf
Orange County is about 3/4 way down the report. I feed the daily case numbers for Orange County into a spreadsheet and covert them to cases per million, to make them easier to compare to other areas of the country. For Orange County, I used a factor of 1.393 million based upon the latest US Census estimate from 2019.

Here are the numbers I have since I began tracking. Note that I don’t go back every day and check if previous days’ numbers have been adjusted, so some my numbers may not match the state report exactly. I figure that for practical purposes, the moving average will smooth out any daily differences. Apologies for the foray into math!


Orange County New CasesOrange County New Per MillionOrange County 7-Day Moving Average
June 12, 2020
June 13, 2020169121121
June 14, 2020177127124
June 15, 2020178128127
June 16, 202013899113
June 17, 2020210151125
June 18, 2020340244197
June 19, 2020331238241
June 20, 2020433311274
June 21, 2020211151231
June 22, 2020403289220
June 23, 2020556399280
June 24, 2020725520340
June 25, 20201032741420
June 26, 2020982705468
June 27, 2020832597486
June 28, 2020354254501
June 29, 2020289207489
June 30, 2020542389488
July 1, 2020554398470
July 2, 2020608436427
July 3, 20201164836445
July 4, 2020760546438
July 5, 2020374268440
July 6, 2020359258447
July 7, 2020422303435
July 8, 2020400287419
July 9, 2020545391413
July 10, 2020476342342
July 11, 20201355973403
July 12, 2020924663460
July 13, 2020437314468
July 14, 2020526378478
July 15, 20201379990579
July 16, 2020741532599
July 17, 2020473340598
July 18, 2020742533536
July 19, 2020340244476
July 20, 2020419301474
July 21, 2020677486489
July 22, 2020547393404
July 23, 2020686492398
July 24, 2020599430411
July 25, 2020422303378
July 26, 2020409294385
July 27, 2020432310387
July 28, 2020374268356
July 29, 2020408293342
July 30, 2020420302314
July 31, 2020450323299
Interesting - how are you calculating your "moving' average?
 
Interesting - how are you calculating your "moving' average?

Moving average = (That date + previous 6 days) divided by 7. Thanks to your question, I just noticed that the first several rows were not calculating correctly, probably because I originally started charting on June 21 and added the early rows later, and pasted in the wrong formulas. (Duh!) However, from June 27 going forward, the period I was most concerned about, the averages were calculating correctly. I will go back and edit the early rows for good measure!

Please note that my analysis is for my own purpose, it’s not meant to be professional or perfect, but it is helpful to inform my decision to take my September trip. I’m not going to visit people in Jacksonville or gad about beaches in Miami, or do anything else in Florida, so I stripped out the rest of the state. I just want to know what’s happening in the area of WDW in the very recent past and right now. I wasn’t able to find that particular combo of info anywhere else, so I put it together myself. Never meant to pulish this, mostly charting for my own curiosity!
 
@JoJoGirl

If you go look at the link I posted, you might find some other helpful info.

I found it interesting that on July 25, 1 of every 34 people are infected in Orange County.

My daughter lives in Florida. When I looked at her area, I could drill down on her zip code. 1 out of every 27 people were infected there and in her county, it's 1 out of 47. I'm not really happy with those numbers.
 

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