GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[KBoopaloo]

It is also worth noting that the NBA arrived the week of July 10 or July 11 and started testing nearly 1000 people nearly every day which we think is included in the Orange County numbers (though there seemed to be some back and forth about whether that was the case?) Their negative tests drive down the percent positive of new cases for the county. Of course this doesn’t affect the number of new cases which is what you are tracking and that number has still shown a decline.

 

[anthony2k7]

Wow - that site shows testing is going down in Florida? Yikes! Are they subscribing to the "more testing more cases" bologna?

I'm not sure testing is down, but the inconsistent numbers are probably just another side effect of the backlog they have on tests. Maybe they are finally getting on top of the backlog and the current lower numbers are closer to the real tests per day numbers. Or maybe the numbers are still a mess and meaningless.

 

[sam_gordon]

Didn't Florida shut down at least some testing sites as the storm approaches?

 

[DisneyOma]

I'm not sure testing is down, but the inconsistent numbers are probably just another side effect of the backlog they have on tests. Maybe they are finally getting on top of the backlog and the current lower numbers are closer to the real tests per day numbers. Or maybe the numbers are still a mess and meaningless.

No, the number of tests would go UP if they were handling a backlog, wouldn't they?

 

[jlwhitney]

Didn't Florida shut down at least some testing sites as the storm approaches?

Only some of them. But I know the ones in my area don't always even go through all the tests per day they are allowed.

 

[JoJoGirl]

@JoJoGirl

If you go look at the link I posted, you might find some other helpful info.

I found it interesting that on July 25, 1 of every 34 people are infected in Orange County.

My daughter lives in Florida. When I looked at her area, I could drill down on her zip code. 1 out of every 27 people were infected there and in her county, it's 1 out of 47. I'm not really happy with those numbers.

Thanks, that is a great site! My daughter works at a grocery in an Ohio hotspot, so I understand your feelings.

If it makes you feel any better, the total number of infections I’m seeing in Orange County is 1 in 45 as of August 1 (See image below). And that is the cumulative number who have been infected over the course of the entire epidemic, not the number currently infected. So just over 2% of the population there has had Covid at some time or other over the past six months. Still definitely not great, but not as dire as was predicted in March, and not nearly as catastrophic as saying that 1 in 45 people are infected currently, which is what it looks like the way it’s presented here.



Current infections would be harder to estimate, and few sites I’ve seen make much meaningful effort. The CDC says a person is no longer infectious ten days after the onset of symptoms provided they no longer have a fever. They can still have other lingering symptoms, but won’t shed enough intact virus to be contagious. FWIW, my brother and his girlfriend, ages 50-ish, both recovered and were cleared for work in that timeframe. Elsewhere on that site it states that in the past 7 days in Orange County, 31.7 people per 100,000 have tested positive for Covid. Even if you more than triple that number to account for the previous three days, a 50% asymptomatic rate and some amount of undertesting, you would still get only 1 in 1000 people contagious right now. And hopefully those who were formally diagnosed will be quarantining, and not out in public potentially infecting other people.

If you would happen to encounter one of that 0.1% of the population who is currently infectious, it’s believed that you need 10-15 minutes of unmitigated close contact to pick up enough virus to become infected yourself. Most of the cases in our area (including every single one I have known personally) have been traced to social gatherings where people were simply not distancing and being careful.

Fortunately, you have some great tools in your control to further minimize your own risk of catching Covid. Stay physically distanced - just three feet cuts your risk significantly, six feet doubles that protection. Wear a mask (yes, it protects you too!), wash/sanitize your hands often, and don’t touch your face. Keep social encounters outside where the air is circulating, and when you can’t, keep it short, distanced, and double down on the protection. Maybe even add eye shields in higher-risk spaces. For heaven’s sake don’t go around hugging everyone in town and posting it on facebook - sheesh, people! (Sorry, I digress!). Every protective measure you take cuts your risk to an even smaller fraction - as well as protecting everyone around you!

Sorry, didn’t mean to expound. But I think there is a medium between ignoring the situation (like so many where I live) and being overwhelmed by it, and that’s what I am trying to find. What the numbers tell me right now is to go out and live your life, but do it very carefully and conscientiously. Everything we do carries risk, and this is another risk to factor into the equation.

 

[JoJoGirl]

Wow - that site shows testing is going down in Florida? Yikes! Are they subscribing to the "more testing more cases" bologna?

It doesn’t look as if total testing is down. That number had indeed been steadily increasing over time up until mid-July, and since then has been bouncing around at an average in the mid-90Ks, but has not materially decreased. (See image below).

What has decreased a bit is the number of people getting tested for the first time. So a slightly larger portion of existing tests over the past couple of weeks have been going to repeat subjects like first responders, people in recovery, etc.

Why the number of first-time test takers is down is a chicken-and-egg question with a number of potential causes. Guidelines say that percent positivity over 10% means that capacity is inadequate, so there is definitely that. But percent positivity among new tests has been falling steadily for the past three weeks. So just as the buildup in testing didn’t fully account for the case explosion in Florida, testing constraints alone do not appear to be enough to account for the entire recent decline in new positives. Other reasons probably come into play: A true decrease in people showing symptoms would lead to a decrease in demand for first-time tests. More people in the recovery stage (which is logical after the early July spike) would also consume more capacity. Etc.

Somewhere in there, there is some good news. It all looks as if Florida experienced a very serious spike following the summer holidays, and is now recovering a bit. There is a long way to go, but for now, things are slowly headIng in the right direction.




Edited for typos.

 

[TomServo27]

It is also worth noting that the NBA arrived the week of July 10 or July 11 and started testing nearly 1000 people nearly every day which we think is included in the Orange County numbers (though there seemed to be some back and forth about whether that was the case?) Their negative tests drive down the percent positive of new cases for the county. Of course this doesn’t affect the number of new cases which is what you are tracking and that number has still shown a decline.

MLS also not sure how often they are testing and how many test they are doing. I have not really followed it.

 

[wombat_5606]

Thanks, that is a great site! My daughter works at a grocery in an Ohio hotspot, so I understand your feelings.

If it makes you feel any better, the total number of infections I’m seeing in Orange County is 1 in 45 as of August 1 (See image below). And that is the cumulative number who have been infected over the course of the entire epidemic, not the number currently infected. So just over 2% of the population there has had Covid at some time or other over the past six months. Still definitely not great, but not as dire as was predicted in March, and not nearly as catastrophic as saying that 1 in 45 people are infected currently, which is what it looks like the way it’s presented here.

View attachment 515291

Current infections would be harder to estimate, and few sites I’ve seen make much meaningful effort. The CDC says a person is no longer infectious ten days after the onset of symptoms provided they no longer have a fever. They can still have other lingering symptoms, but won’t shed enough intact virus to be contagious. FWIW, my brother and his girlfriend, ages 50-ish, both recovered and were cleared for work in that timeframe. Elsewhere on that site it states that in the past 7 days in Orange County, 31.7 people per 100,000 have tested positive for Covid. Even if you more than triple that number to account for the previous three days, a 50% asymptomatic rate and some amount of undertesting, you would still get only 1 in 1000 people contagious right now. And hopefully those who were formally diagnosed will be quarantining, and not out in public potentially infecting other people.

If you would happen to encounter one of that 0.1% of the population who is currently infectious, it’s believed that you need 10-15 minutes of unmitigated close contact to pick up enough virus to become infected yourself. Most of the cases in our area (including every single one I have known personally) have been traced to social gatherings where people were simply not distancing and being careful.

Fortunately, you have some great tools in your control to further minimize your own risk of catching Covid. Stay physically distanced - just three feet cuts your risk significantly, six feet doubles that protection. Wear a mask (yes, it protects you too!), wash/sanitize your hands often, and don’t touch your face. Keep social encounters outside where the air is circulating, and when you can’t, keep it short, distanced, and double down on the protection. Maybe even add eye shields in higher-risk spaces. For heaven’s sake don’t go around hugging everyone in town and posting it on facebook - sheesh, people! (Sorry, I digress!). Every protective measure you take cuts your risk to an even smaller fraction - as well as protecting everyone around you!

Sorry, didn’t mean to expound. But I think there is a medium between ignoring the situation (like so many where I live) and being overwhelmed by it, and that’s what I am trying to find. What the numbers tell me right now is to go out and live your life, but do it very carefully and conscientiously. Everything we do carries risk, and this is another risk to factor into the equation.

Ha, I guess you've never read any of my other posts since all of this started. I know very well how to mitigate my exposure and how the virus works.

First, you do know people are infectious at least 2 days before they show any symptoms?

What about the asymptomatic people that are infectious and don't even know they have the ability to infect others?

What about the asymptomatic and symptomatic people that are never tested?

Florida testing is abysmal. My daughters co-worker had to go a hour early to get in line and they ran out of tests with about 5 cars behind him. So anyone that showed up on time, was out of luck. It took him 8 days to get his result. Did he quarantine for those 8 days? No. He's in his mid 20's and his employer would not pay for him to stay home.

Secondly. In my daughter's county, she has exactly 1 day of the week that she could potentially make an appt to get a test. The window is from 8am-12noon. I wonder how long she would have to wait to get that appt?

Her other option is to spend her days off waiting in a line for hours and still not be guaranteed a test. This just illustrates to me that testing is ridiculous. There are lots of people out there that aren't being tested for a myriad of reasons. Are they all sick, no, but there is probably a lot that we don't know about.

She has told my husband that Florida is testing the maximum that they can test right now.

Yes, I know how to control my risk, but I can't control the people that put me at risk. The only way to do that is stay at home, which is pretty much what I have to do. I have a different perspective because I'm in the hi-risk category due to my age. My granddaughter is also immune-compromised. Your assessment of the situation is entirely different than mine. Due to likelihood that my illness would be more severe than yours or your family, causes me to take more precautions.

You've just described my daughter's job. She is mitigating their risk, but she is exposed to a group of people everyday for more than 15 minutes in close contact who don't have to mitigate her risk. She tries to maintain distance, but just like I read here on these boards, people have a hard time complying with that. She is strong, healthy and has good hygiene but the odds are going to be against her the longer the virus rages on.

So numbers can tell us something. They just don't tell us everything. Today in Florida, especially, I believe they aren't telling us the truth, partially because they don't know the truth.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Ha, I guess you've never read any of my other posts since all of this started. I know very well how to mitigate my exposure and how the virus works.

First, you do know people are infectious at least 2 days before they show any symptoms?

What about the asymptomatic people that are infectious and don't even know they have the ability to infect others?

What about the asymptomatic and symptomatic people that are never tested?

Florida testing is abysmal. My daughters co-worker had to go a hour early to get in line and they ran out of tests with about 5 cars behind him. So anyone that showed up on time, was out of luck. It took him 8 days to get his result. Did he quarantine for those 8 days? No. He's in his mid 20's and his employer would not pay for him to stay home.

Secondly. In my daughter's county, she has exactly 1 day of the week that she could potentially make an appt to get a test. The window is from 8am-12noon. I wonder how long she would have to wait to get that appt?

Her other option is to spend her days off waiting in a line for hours and still not be guaranteed a test. This just illustrates to me that testing is ridiculous. There are lots of people out there that aren't being tested for a myriad of reasons. Are they all sick, no, but there is probably a lot that we don't know about.

She has told my husband that Florida is testing the maximum that they can test right now.

Yes, I know how to control my risk, but I can't control the people that put me at risk. The only way to do that is stay at home, which is pretty much what I have to do. I have a different perspective because I'm in the hi-risk category due to my age. My granddaughter is also immune-compromised. Your assessment of the situation is entirely different than mine. Due to likelihood that my illness would be more severe than yours or your family, causes me to take more precautions.

You've just described my daughter's job. She is mitigating their risk, but she is exposed to a group of people everyday for more than 15 minutes in close contact who don't have to mitigate her risk. She tries to maintain distance, but just like I read here on these boards, people have a hard time complying with that. She is strong, healthy and has good hygiene but the odds are going to be against her the longer the virus rages on.

So numbers can tell us something. They just don't tell us everything. Today in Florida, especially, I believe they aren't telling us the truth, partially because they don't know the truth.

To sum up your post in a metaphor. I'm not afraid of driving in snow. I'm afraid of all the idiots driving in snow. And there are so many accidents, they can't really give us an accurate number until well after the fact.

 

[KBoopaloo]

I posted this in the Rumors thread but it seemed relevant to post here as well. Orange County is expecting to keep the mask mandate in place through at least the rest of the year, potentially into the spring. I am glad to hear they are not going to pull back too quickly.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200731-4vgltsukdncmtkhkbcoei72gwm-story.html

 

[JoJoGirl]

Ha, I guess you've never read any of my other posts since all of this started. I know very well how to mitigate my exposure and how the virus works.

First, you do know people are infectious at least 2 days before they show any symptoms?

What about the asymptomatic people that are infectious and don't even know they have the ability to infect others?

What about the asymptomatic and symptomatic people that are never tested?

Florida testing is abysmal. My daughters co-worker had to go a hour early to get in line and they ran out of tests with about 5 cars behind him. So anyone that showed up on time, was out of luck. It took him 8 days to get his result. Did he quarantine for those 8 days? No. He's in his mid 20's and his employer would not pay for him to stay home.

Secondly. In my daughter's county, she has exactly 1 day of the week that she could potentially make an appt to get a test. The window is from 8am-12noon. I wonder how long she would have to wait to get that appt?

Her other option is to spend her days off waiting in a line for hours and still not be guaranteed a test. This just illustrates to me that testing is ridiculous. There are lots of people out there that aren't being tested for a myriad of reasons. Are they all sick, no, but there is probably a lot that we don't know about.

She has told my husband that Florida is testing the maximum that they can test right now.

Yes, I know how to control my risk, but I can't control the people that put me at risk. The only way to do that is stay at home, which is pretty much what I have to do. I have a different perspective because I'm in the hi-risk category due to my age. My granddaughter is also immune-compromised. Your assessment of the situation is entirely different than mine. Due to likelihood that my illness would be more severe than yours or your family, causes me to take more precautions.

You've just described my daughter's job. She is mitigating their risk, but she is exposed to a group of people everyday for more than 15 minutes in close contact who don't have to mitigate her risk. She tries to maintain distance, but just like I read here on these boards, people have a hard time complying with that. She is strong, healthy and has good hygiene but the odds are going to be against her the longer the virus rages on.

So numbers can tell us something. They just don't tell us everything. Today in Florida, especially, I believe they aren't telling us the truth, partially because they don't know the truth.

Thank you for describing your personal experience and how it is shaping your assessment of the current situation. Though I did question your statement about 1 in 34 people in Orange County being infected, I’m not at all questioning the way you personally are handling this pandemic. I love to hear and analyze all information available to me.

The challenge is that personal anecdotes and qualitative statements like “Things are so much worse than they look,“ can be very difficult to translate into a risk analysis. Based upon what you personally have heard and observed, by what factor would you estimate that the current rate of infection in Florida is being underestimated? Do you think there are 3x, 5x, or 10x as many infections as the data show? How do you come up with that number and is it changing over time?

As you point out, everyone has a different risk tolerance, for very good reasons. That tolerance colors our assessment of the situation, which is necessarily subjective and personal to each of us. What I’m trying to do is determine if the risk is within my personal level of tolerance. Your input is very helpful. Thank you.

 

[wombat_5606]

Thank you for describing your personal experience and how it is shaping your assessment of the current situation. Though I did question your statement about 1 in 34 people in Orange County being infected, I’m not at all questioning the way you personally are handling this pandemic. I love to hear and analyze all information available to me.

The challenge is that personal anecdotes and qualitative statements like “Things are so much worse than they look,“ can be very difficult to translate into a risk analysis. Based upon what you personally have heard and observed, by what factor would you estimate that the current rate of infection in Florida is being underestimated? Do you think there are 3x, 5x, or 10x as many infections as the data show? How do you come up with that number and is it changing over time?

As you point out, everyone has a different risk tolerance, for very good reasons. That tolerance colors our assessment of the situation, which is necessarily subjective and personal to each of us. What I’m trying to do is determine if the risk is within my personal level of tolerance. Your input is very helpful. Thank you.

It's been widely reported in various places. Here's one I've seen.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/covid-19-cases-are-12-times-higher-reported

 

[JoJoGirl]

To sum up your post in a metaphor. I'm not afraid of driving in snow. I'm afraid of all the idiots driving in snow. And there are so many accidents, they can't really give us an accurate number until well after the fact.

Coming from the north, I can relate to that metaphor! That’s why I have a heavy vehicle with AWD, drive very slowly, and leave lots of distance. I do go out in the snow, and accept it as one of the many risks in life.

 

[JoJoGirl]

It's been widely reported in various places. Here's one I've seen.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/covid-19-cases-are-12-times-higher-reported

Thanks. I have heard the widely reported estimate of actual cases being over 10x higher than positive tests. But it came some time ago, and is based upon a level of testing in the US that has now been surpassed many times over. So while it may have been in the ballpark in the earlier stages of the pandemic, it may not be so accurate now.

Here are some specifics about the paper you reference.

1. The article as referenced has not been peer reviewed. The information it contains may interesting and helpful, but has not been accepted as fact.

2. The model is dated June 24, and is based upon data collected before June 18. It has not been updated since then. In this pandemic, six weeks is an eon. All the models have varied wildly by the day, with none being accurate. I follow the highly vaunted University of Washington models, and the daily fluctuations there have been staggering.

3. Since the date of the paper, testing in the US has expanded enormously. In Florida specifically it has tripled since mid-June. Because testing level is such a significant input to this model, the 11.8 factor is most certainly rendered invalid today.

No doubt that there is still a shorage of tests, and current infectious cases are still grossly underreported. That’s why my previous analysis multiplied them by a factor of 3x. However, I would love a more scientific current estimate. Unfortunately that particular paper is obsolete at this point. What I am very interested in finding is better factor to use for Florida right now.

FWIW, the University of Washington model, which is updated regularly, is estimating about 16.5K actual new infections today, August 2. That’s about 2x (a little less) what the testing totals have been averaging. But like I said earlier, they have been wildly inaccurate too, so who knows?

 

[wombat_5606]

But like I said earlier, they have been wildly inaccurate too, so who knows?

There are a lot of inaccuracies, no doubt. I gave you one example. You can google others. Just because it's inaccurate today, doesn't mean it's not an indication of under-reporting either.

My common sense tells me that under-reporting has to be a reality. There are many, many people that aren't going to get tested, much less going to the hospital when they are asymptomatic or symptomatic, but not severely so.

I will say, early in the pandemic I was following a model that all 50 states use to prepare their response to the pandemic. This model has been estimating based on current behavior and protocols on the day the report comes out. I will tell you that since the beginning they have under-estimated.

Just like you, I've got my spreadsheet.

On April 17, they estimated that the US would have 60,308 deaths by August 4.

On April 22, they estimated the US would have 67,641 deaths by August 4.
On that date, I began to note the Florida count. They estimated FL would have 1620 deaths by August 4.

On April 29, US estimate 72,433, FL estimate 1898

Notice the huge increases after this date.

May 4 - US 134,475, FL estimate 3971

May 12 - US 147,040, FL estimate 5819

June 8 - US 145,728, FL estimate 4363 BTW this is the last date I recorded where their projections went for August 4.

Today, August 2 - US actual deaths -158,172, FL 7084.

Currently they are giving projections for November 1- US 230,822 and FL-16318

So, while I can take your points into consideration, my information that I've read and digested over these months, is that everything is being under-estimated and under-reported. You can disagree.

If you are trying to determine your risk, I behoove you to take this into consideration. How much you want to do that is, of course, up to you.

 

[anthony2k7]

No, the number of tests would go UP if they were handling a backlog, wouldn't they?

I dunno, just guessing. Those peak numbers of tests reported a few weeks ago seem unlikely to be the number taken daily.

 

[Pyotr]

There are a lot of inaccuracies, no doubt. I gave you one example. You can google others. Just because it's inaccurate today, doesn't mean it's not an indication of under-reporting either.

My common sense tells me that under-reporting has to be a reality. There are many, many people that aren't going to get tested, much less going to the hospital when they are asymptomatic or symptomatic, but not severely so.

I will say, early in the pandemic I was following a model that all 50 states use to prepare their response to the pandemic. This model has been estimating based on current behavior and protocols on the day the report comes out. I will tell you that since the beginning they have under-estimated.

Just like you, I've got my spreadsheet.

On April 17, they estimated that the US would have 60,308 deaths by August 4.

On April 22, they estimated the US would have 67,641 deaths by August 4.
On that date, I began to note the Florida count. They estimated FL would have 1620 deaths by August 4.

On April 29, US estimate 72,433, FL estimate 1898

Notice the huge increases after this date.

May 4 - US 134,475, FL estimate 3971

May 12 - US 147,040, FL estimate 5819

June 8 - US 145,728, FL estimate 4363 BTW this is the last date I recorded where their projections went for August 4.

Today, August 2 - US actual deaths -158,172, FL 7084.

Currently they are giving projections for November 1- US 230,822 and FL-16318

So, while I can take your points into consideration, my information that I've read and digested over these months, is that everything is being under-estimated and under-reported. You can disagree.

If you are trying to determine your risk, I behoove you to take this into consideration. How much you want to do that is, of course, up to you.

I stopped using the projections long ago. They have been so off it’s comical.

My county had 2,638 negatives and 74 positives reported today. 1 new death. It really doesn’t mean much but at least it’s better than it had been.

 

[wombat_5606]

I stopped using the projections long ago. They have been so off it’s comical.

My county had 2,638 negatives and 74 positives reported today. 1 new death. It really doesn’t mean much but at least it’s better than it had been.

I wouldn't call them comical. They serve a valuable purpose. Our state governments are being supplied the information by https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america and making their policies with that knowledge.

My area is doing well today, too, but my area took the projections and decided several weeks ago to mandate masks. When that didn't help much, they instituted travel restrictions. When that didn't do enough, they closed all bars and they had restaurants reduce capacity from 1/3 down to 1/4, gatherings can be no more than 10(down from 50) and churches are to be virtual or drive in. Finally, we are seeing some better results.

So you can ignore the models, but I doubt your government is and I prefer to keep track for myself.

 

[JoJoGirl]

I wouldn't call them comical. They serve a valuable purpose. Our state governments are being supplied the information by https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america and making their policies with that knowledge.

That’s the University of Washington model I referred to earlier. Yup, it’s been wildly inaccurate. It changes every day and never seems to get any better. Ohio does their own projections through Ohio State and the Cleveland Clinic, but they haven’t published them since April. Not sure those have been much better.

So, while I can take your points into consideration, my information that I've read and digested over these months, is that everything is being under-estimated and under-reported. You can disagree.

Actually, I never disagreed about that at all, and have come to the same conclusion. But I do question whether the 10-12x factor is valid any more, given that testing has tripled since those papers came out. Would love to see something more current, unfortunately it does not seem to exist.

It’s been fun discussing this with someone who puts so much thought into their replies, but I’m signing out now. Have fun, stay safe, and carry on!