Hurricane watch 2018

[Lewdannie]

When will we know if something will or will not develop for the first week of October?

I think we will be OK (Disclaimer: Australian with no meteorological knowledge)

 

[Lewdannie]

duplicate...sorry

 

[gqmom]

 

[Spridell]

NHC is now once again watching multiple places in the Atlantic.

For Florida the one to watch is the one coming off Africa right now. IF and BIG IF again IF it were to develop it would be around Florida first week of October.

Did I mention the word IF IF IF

Just monitor it for now and that is all.

The other ones WILL NOT be a problem for Florida or anyplace else for that matter.

 

[texascutie]

Joining in! I am meeting my daughter for our first Food & Wine trip Oct 4-9th. I thought we would be past all this. I will be watching constantly now!

 

[kat_lh]

Stoking the fires of paranoia because sometimes it's fun - lol

From our most trusted source here in Houston

"The main thing Eric and I will be monitoring is in the Caribbean. If we look at the modeling, it’s generally showing an increasing risk that something tries to develop in the southwest Caribbean in a little less than two weeks. That’s a climatologically favored area for tropical development in October. Usually, systems develop there and lift north toward Florida or the Bahamas."

https://spacecityweather.com/092118-dreary-unsettled-weather-returns-houston/#more-8576

Of course, something coming in from the Gulf would be a west coast strike - not like Irma that came more off of the Atlantic

 

[Spridell]

Stoking the fires of paranoia because sometimes it's fun - lol

From our most trusted source here in Houston

"The main thing Eric and I will be monitoring is in the Caribbean. If we look at the modeling, it’s generally showing an increasing risk that something tries to develop in the southwest Caribbean in a little less than two weeks. That’s a climatologically favored area for tropical development in October. Usually, systems develop there and lift north toward Florida or the Bahamas."

https://spacecityweather.com/092118-dreary-unsettled-weather-returns-houston/#more-8576

Of course, something coming in from the Gulf would be a west coast strike - not like Irma that came more off of the Atlantic

I agree, the Caribbean will be the most concerning the next 3 weeks. After that we should start the step down towards the end of the season.

 

[gqmom]

Stoking the fires of paranoia because sometimes it's fun - lol

From our most trusted source here in Houston

"The main thing Eric and I will be monitoring is in the Caribbean. If we look at the modeling, it’s generally showing an increasing risk that something tries to develop in the southwest Caribbean in a little less than two weeks. That’s a climatologically favored area for tropical development in October. Usually, systems develop there and lift north toward Florida or the Bahamas."

https://spacecityweather.com/092118-dreary-unsettled-weather-returns-houston/#more-8576

Of course, something coming in from the Gulf would be a west coast strike - not like Irma that came more off of the Atlantic

 

[Spridell]

We have to keep our eyes on Kirk.

At this time I dont think it will make it past the Islands. Too much wind shear and it will probably get torn apart.

Just keeping one eye on it for now

 

[kat_lh]

We have to keep our eyes on Kirk.

At this time I dont think it will make it past the Islands. Too much wind shear and it will probably get torn apart.

Just keeping one eye on it for now

Always a good sign when it starts to weaken before it gets close to land. Looks like TD11 is done for as well.

 

[TheDisneyNurse]

The remnants of Kirk no longer have a closed circulation. The NHC is discontinuing further advisories on Kirk. I was watching this one closely cause I leave in 5 days. Thank goodness.

 

[kat_lh]

I think anyone with a trip through the first 10 days of October has very very little to worry about it besides the normal thunderstorms (in my totally uneducated opinion!)

 

[Spridell]

I think anyone with a trip through the first 10 days of October has very very little to worry about it besides the normal thunderstorms (in my totally uneducated opinion!)

Agreed. Computer models are quiet until at least October 6th.

Once we start getting into the middle of October we should be nearing the end.

 

[TheDisneyNurse]

I think anyone with a trip through the first 10 days of October has very very little to worry about it besides the normal thunderstorms (in my totally uneducated opinion!)

I'm no expert, but I very much agree

 

[Spridell]

We must keep our eye on NEXT WEEK to MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Models are now hinting at "something" trying to develop in the Caribbean and move north.

Unfortunately the October pattern for Hurricanes DOES NOT favor Florida.

So for now we wait and see what happens.

 

[texascutie]

We must keep our eye on NEXT WEEK to MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Models are now hinting at "something" trying to develop in the Caribbean and move north.

Unfortunately the October pattern for Hurricanes DOES NOT favor Florida.

So for now we wait and see what happens.

Thanks Spridell for the heads up! Is the time frame you are referring to around Oct 8-17? Just wanted to get a handle on the time frame you are referring to. The models are confusing to me as far as getting time and days out of them.

 

[Spridell]

Thanks Spridell for the heads up! Is the time frame you are referring to around Oct 8-17? Just wanted to get a handle on the time frame you are referring to. The models are confusing to me as far as getting time and days out of them.

From about the 8th until the 15th I would say we have to watch the Caribbean to see if anything comes out of there.

Some models show something some don't. So it's a wait and see as of right now.

In October we switch to storms forming the Caribbean. The days of the storms coming off Africa and we can see them 10+ days out are over.

Unfortunately since Florida is so close to the Caribbean any storm forming there and reaching Florida could happen in a matter of 3 or 4 days.

For now nothing to worry about. Just have to monitor.

 

[Spridell]

Thanks Spridell for the heads up! Is the time frame you are referring to around Oct 8-17? Just wanted to get a handle on the time frame you are referring to. The models are confusing to me as far as getting time and days out of them.

Also here is a handy tool so you can decipher what times are on the computer models. ALL times on the modes are in UTC.

For example in the picture I attached (and referring to the handy chart attached) 12Z Wed October 17 would be 7am EST. So that picture attached is showing conditions at 7am Wed October 17.

 

[texascutie]

Also here is a handy tool so you can decipher what times are on the computer models. ALL times on the modes are in UTC.

For example in the picture I attached (and referring to the handy chart attached) 12Z Wed October 17 would be 7am EST. So that picture attached is showing conditions at 7am Wed October 17.

Thank you so much!!! I am there 10/4-9 and feeling better!

 

[Spridell]

NHC now watching the area below Cuba in the Caribbean.

Whatever comes out of here should move North over the next 7 to 10 days