without some kind of quarantine...after a vaccine or a 90%+ effective treatment is widely available would be the earliest to avoid protests...too many tests have been found to be faulty weeks after being pressed into widespread use (to be expected out of any product rushed that much) to really depend on those.
quarantine doesn't necessarily need to be as strict as being confined to a hotel room...if planned and implemented properly it may be possible to have direct transport to/from specified resort areas (no car rentals/taxis/uber) and use some hotels as testing/quarantine/temp housing for hotel staff. it might allow for something like a re-open of some ko'olina hotels, and waikiki...and allow guests to roam within their resort area...but only be allowed out to be transported back to the airport (with airport/transport staff using the airport hotels for testing/etc.). wouldn't allow for exploring the island or doing any of the major attractions on any island...but I'd imagine something like that would be palatable for most in hawaii...getting the state/hotels/etc. to agree on any of that may not be possible tho.
one of the bigger problems (excluding people sneaking out...not just tourists...workers too) with this would be that airlines/hotels wouldn't be forced to cancel flights/rooms so getting refunds if this sort of thing isn't of interest would be far more difficult.
it shouldn't be too much longer before disney and/or universal start announcing at least first phase re-open plans (I believe universal has already sent out surveys to random people to gauge how many restrictions people would be willing to accept). so that should provide a good idea as to what to expect other tourist heavy locations to impose.