New 350 room hotel near Swan and Dolphin "The Swan Reserve”

[jade1]

To decrease risk profile. Why hold the risk of empty hotel rooms during an economic downturn if you can get someone to take that risk for you with an extremely Disney friendly contract? The margins maybe lower, but you are offloading a tremendous amount of economic risk. In addition, while it is almost impossible for someone to compete with Disney's theme parks, it is much easier to compete in the market of Orlando hotel rooms.

You know my drum beat on this, Disney sold DVC to the regulars that previously filled the deluxe rooms. Now they have to convert deluxe rooms to DVC to reduce deluxe inventory. Which in turn further shrinks the deluxe customer pool.

Very wise and accurate depiction. This is exactly what has been going on down there.

WDW has the guests (DVC owners) building, converting and maintaining the resorts-as well as keeping them full.

If WDW did not have the DVC program, they would be footing the bill for all hotel builds, additions, refurbishments and have to foot the bill for upkeep.

Then a down turn would be far much more impactful, as the rooms sit empty besides all the investment.

 

[dlavender]

The DVC conversion is pretty genius.

Even bookings in the Mod category are now ridiculous. Taking those 600 rooms or so out of circulation at CBR was genius in hindsight.

Looked at rates into next year for the moderates. Goes for almost $300?!

They manipulated the supply, and are quickly pushing that pricing envelope.

We stayed at Poly last weekend. Really enjoyed ourselves, but wow was that expensive.

Again, they converted the rooms, diminished supply, and Voila, that'll be an additional 20% kind sir......

DW and I both decided that was probably our last on site stay. I refuse to pay anywhere close to $300 for a night in a mod. I now have crossed off the loop from the bucket list. And I'm not paying around $400-$500 for the others. (with 5, values are a no go, and I'm sure as heck not paying $400/night for a value "suite").

But, the conversion from their angle was genius.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Then a down turn would be far much more impactful, as the rooms sit empty besides all the investment.

Offload that stock before the downturn - as Robert A Iger hopes to hell happens with advanced notice so he can quit and divest into willow's Cayman Islands broker...

They have "positioned"...aka "not positioned" themselves to be wrecked by the next crash...converting 1000 rooms to dvc isn't gonna stem that tide...but it will help.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The DVC conversion is pretty genius.

Even bookings in the Mod category are now ridiculous. Taking those 600 rooms or so out of circulation at CBR was genius in hindsight.

Looked at rates into next year for the moderates. Goes for almost $300?!

They manipulated the supply, and are quickly pushing that pricing envelope.

We stayed at Poly last weekend. Really enjoyed ourselves, but wow was that expensive.

Again, they converted the rooms, diminished supply, and Voila, that'll be an additional 20% kind sir......

DW and I both decided that was probably our last on site stay. I refuse to pay anywhere close to $300 for a night in a mod. I now have crossed off the loop from the bucket list. And I'm not paying around $400-$500 for the others. (with 5, values are a no go, and I'm sure as heck not paying $400/night for a value "suite").

But, the conversion from their angle was genius.

It's not like we all don't get it...ok..."some of us" get it...

But I can't even criticize it...very shrewd.

I just don't want to hear ANY whining about how "hard" it is to afford things when jobs are lost and the bubble bursts again...could have limited the damage if the lemmings would stop the herd...

 

[jade1]

.converting 1000 rooms to dvc isn't gonna stem that tide...but it will help.

Yep agreed it will help.

And since members have now built and maintained over 5,000 rooms (many of those 1BR/2BR/3BR) it will help even more.

 

[jade1]

I just don't want to hear ANY whining about how "hard" it is to afford things when jobs are lost and the bubble bursts again...could have limited the damage if the lemmings would stop the herd...

Agreed-there's nothing more annoying.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Agreed-there's nothing more annoying.

I assume you're looking at it from my angle:

"You defended before when the prices were jacked...now take your medicine. It doesn't affect me."

Cause it doesn't...at least not yet...I'm not short on travel funds. But the principle of everyone ONE day being priced out is real.

That's my section in the crowd, Sister...

 

[jade1]

I assume you're looking at it from my angle:

"You defended before when the prices were jacked...now take your medicine. It doesn't affect me."

Cause it doesn't...at least not yet...I'm not short on travel funds. But the principle of everyone ONE day being priced out is real.

That's my section in the crowd, Sister...

Nope just pointing out something both you and I "just don't want to hear".

 

[LSLS]

The DVC conversion is pretty genius.

Even bookings in the Mod category are now ridiculous. Taking those 600 rooms or so out of circulation at CBR was genius in hindsight.

Looked at rates into next year for the moderates. Goes for almost $300?!

They manipulated the supply, and are quickly pushing that pricing envelope.

We stayed at Poly last weekend. Really enjoyed ourselves, but wow was that expensive.

Again, they converted the rooms, diminished supply, and Voila, that'll be an additional 20% kind sir......

DW and I both decided that was probably our last on site stay. I refuse to pay anywhere close to $300 for a night in a mod. I now have crossed off the loop from the bucket list. And I'm not paying around $400-$500 for the others. (with 5, values are a no go, and I'm sure as heck not paying $400/night for a value "suite").

But, the conversion from their angle was genius.

Maybe, maybe not. I'm in the same boat as you. Our last major trip we stayed off site and it was amazing. Better amenities, bigger rooms, everything was great. Then right before Irma we had to take a night at the Art of Animation. For $15 more than we paid to stay in the DS area off site, we had peeling paint, dirty bathtubs, trash still in the room, etc. I looked for our next trip and I'm seeing $265 for moderates (2 of which are under major construction). I'm done with values after AoA, and for $100 less a night I can have a much better room than the mods (heck Swolphin is around that price AFTER the added fees). I will add, when we stayed off site, we no longer felt the need to spend each day at Disney. We went around Orlando and only spent one day in the parks. They are looking at short gains potentially, but I honestly think this is a GIANT risk in that you could push people off site, which will result in people looking for other things to do once they are outside the bubble (I know I've said it before, but it is worth repeating).

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Nope just pointing out something both you and I "just don't want to hear".

Here's where you and I completely agree: our love of short lines, open tables, and last minute room bookings...

 

[dlavender]

Maybe, maybe not. I'm in the same boat as you. Our last major trip we stayed off site and it was amazing. Better amenities, bigger rooms, everything was great. Then right before Irma we had to take a night at the Art of Animation. For $15 more than we paid to stay in the DS area off site, we had peeling paint, dirty bathtubs, trash still in the room, etc. I looked for our next trip and I'm seeing $265 for moderates (2 of which are under major construction). I'm done with values after AoA, and for $100 less a night I can have a much better room than the mods (heck Swolphin is around that price AFTER the added fees). I will add, when we stayed off site, we no longer felt the need to spend each day at Disney. We went around Orlando and only spent one day in the parks. They are looking at short gains potentially, but I honestly think this is a GIANT risk in that you could push people off site, which will result in people looking for other things to do once they are outside the bubble (I know I've said it before, but it is worth repeating).

I hear you, 100%.

We have AP's now, so we look to do some weekends.

$265 for CBR?! Half under construction?!

$300 for POR?!

No way. Looking offsite, you can stay still inside the gates at Bonnett Creek for under both of those, in a suite!

Or 2 miles further away in a 2BR suite for half the cost in some cases!

I don't see us ever returning. Especially because if they lower them, that means its happening across the board, so the offsite places will undoubtedly lower at the same rate.

 

[LSLS]

I hear you, 100%.

We have AP's now, so we look to do some weekends.

$265 for CBR?! Half under construction?!

$300 for POR?!

No way. Looking offsite, you can stay still inside the gates at Bonnett Creek for under both of those, in a suite!

Or 2 miles further away in a 2BR suite for half the cost in some cases!

I don't see us ever returning. Especially because if they lower them, that means its happening across the board, so the offsite places will undoubtedly lower at the same rate.

Sadly, I completely agree.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I hear you, 100%.

We have AP's now, so we look to do some weekends.

$265 for CBR?! Half under construction?!

$300 for POR?!

No way. Looking offsite, you can stay still inside the gates at Bonnett Creek for under both of those, in a suite!

Or 2 miles further away in a 2BR suite for half the cost in some cases!

I don't see us ever returning. Especially because if they lower them, that means its happening across the board, so the offsite places will undoubtedly lower at the same rate.

I hate to go down the lane...

But if you want to dig deep...you'll find me decrying this very thing ten years ago when I showed up here after about 5 years resistance...

...I was shouted down as a pessimist/unmagicalifragilistic at that time.

shoulda taken bets...
...then maybe I could afford a room at port Orleans now

 

[amberpi]

(heck Swolphin is around that price AFTER the added fees). I will add, when we stayed off site, we no longer felt the need to spend each day at Disney. We went around Orlando and only spent one day in the parks. They are looking at short gains potentially, but I honestly think this is a GIANT risk in that you could push people off site, which will result in people looking for other things to do once they are outside the bubble (I know I've said it before, but it is worth repeating).

I hear ya about offsite. Everyone here knows I LOVE the Swolphin, and the Ritz and the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress to a lesser degree, too. The thing about the Swolphin pricing is that its even more variable than onsite, and due to conventions, even more difficult to anticipate.

ETA: $300 a night for exterior doors is crazy pants.

 

[jade1]

I hate to go down the lane...

But if you want to dig deep...you'll find me decrying this very thing ten years ago when I showed up here after about 5 years resistance...

...I was shouted down as a pessimist/unmagicalifragilistic at that time.

shoulda taken bets...
...then maybe I could afford a room at port Orleans now

Don't sell yourself short. Many of us saw this all coming and stocked up on DVC and DVC retails. $75 nights Deluxe and doubled investments is the result.

Could have just stayed the last 10 years at Mods or Deluxe-even S&D and flushed $25K.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Don't sell yourself short. Many of us saw this all coming and stocked up on DVC and DVC retails. $75 nights Deluxe and doubled investments is the result.

Could have just stayed the last 10 years at Mods or Deluxe-even S&D and flushed $25K.

It's not $75 a night unless you bought day one and threw $2000 in tickets at you...don't exaggerate.

A studio costs me around $140 ish...but that is dependent on due escalation as well.

Still a good deal...12+ years later...

...but...when the ill advised buy things on continual upcharge...it leaks out to even you and I and we end up subsidizing it when we don't deserve to...

Like on a $58 piece of applebees grade meat at le cellier.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I hear you, 100%.

We have AP's now, so we look to do some weekends.

$265 for CBR?! Half under construction?!

$300 for POR?!

No way. Looking offsite, you can stay still inside the gates at Bonnett Creek for under both of those, in a suite!

Or 2 miles further away in a 2BR suite for half the cost in some cases!

I don't see us ever returning. Especially because if they lower them, that means its happening across the board, so the offsite places will undoubtedly lower at the same rate.

and even more extreme if you are more than 4 people ... as a family of 5 we almost always stay offsite in a 2+ bedroom condo type setup for not much more than value on site ... the extra space is just worth being "outside the bubble"

 

[Q-man]

and even more extreme if you are more than 4 people ... as a family of 5 we almost always stay offsite in a 2+ bedroom condo type setup for not much more than value on site ... the extra space is just worth being "outside the bubble"

A second bathroom is the biggest godsend.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

A second bathroom is the biggest godsend.

That too - and often full kitchens so great for coffee in the morning and breakfast for the kids ... and beer and wine for the afternoon break/evening after the kids are in bed .... helps save more money

 

[jade1]

It's not $75 a night unless you bought day one and threw $2000 in tickets at you...don't exaggerate.

A studio costs me around $140 ish...but that is dependent on due escalation as well.

It's $75 if your investment has doubled-do we really need to do this again? You stay on the cost of dues at most. BWV starts at 10 points a night-$60 in dues.

But heck-lets say $140 (no tax) at BWV? S&D is double that and no asset to sell.