New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[Intr3pid]

Don't know where the notion of paying off the cruise ship loan ASAP is coming from. All cruise lines currently carry a large amount of financial leverage, as a fully secured loan against a long-life ship is the cheapest source of financing. There is no need to pay it down, as you would rather invest that money into higher return projects.

Disney shareholders are primarily concerned with revenues and earnings these days, so you want to deploy ships where the crowds are. Florida isn't going to see more than 4 ships in the summer.

 

[JoeFromSeoul]

I was discussing this thread with my Disney obsessed, soon-to-be 17 year old daughter. She was coming up with name proposals by singing Disney songs. One of the first song lyrics to pop into her head was "Under the Sea"...she quickly vetoed that one for a cruise ship!

 

[DynamicDisneyDuo]

Don't know where the notion of paying off the cruise ship loan ASAP is coming from.

Given that they paid the Dream class ships off VERY fast, it isn't unreasonable to think that was intentional versus just a coincidence.

The articles confirm what I have stated previously in this thread.

I see no such confirmation in those articles since the ships are described in a circumspect manner. All anyone here can do is guess.

 

[truck1]

I see no such confirmation in those articles since the ships are described in a circumspect manner. All anyone here can do is guess.

It specifically says 1 larges ship year round in 23 and a 2nd large ship seasonally starting in 24. The Magic class is considered small, that leaves the Dream class and the 3 new builds.

 

[truck1]

Don't know where the notion of paying off the cruise ship loan ASAP is coming from. All cruise lines currently carry a large amount of financial leverage, as a fully secured loan against a long-life ship is the cheapest source of financing. There is no need to pay it down, as you would rather invest that money into higher return projects.

Disney shareholders are primarily concerned with revenues and earnings these days, so you want to deploy ships where the crowds are. Florida isn't going to see more than 4 ships in the summer.

Its DCL past practice. When the Dream class was delivered, Disney had a 5 year term to pay off the 2.4+ billion.The Dream class was so popular that the loan was able to be paid off in roughly 3 years as opposed to the 5 that the contract called for. It wasnt anyones rush it just worked out that way.

 

[DynamicDisneyDuo]

It specifically says 1 larges ship year round in 23 and a 2nd large ship seasonally starting in 24. The Magic class is considered small, that leaves the Dream class and the 3 new builds.

So it may be 2 Dream class or it could be one of the new ones. Nothing definite can really be said at this point. I seem to remember discussion in this thread before about Miami not having LNG fueling capability, which the new builds would need, but don't recall if there was a mention of a timetable for when they might have it.

 

[truck1]

So it may be 2 Dream class or it could be one of the new ones. Nothing definite can really be said at this point. I seem to remember discussion in this thread before about Miami not having LNG fueling capability, which the new builds would need, but don't recall if there was a mention of a timetable for when they might have it.

Correct. Im taking some SWAGs based on past practice and what's published As far as large vs small ships, the Magic class is considered small and the Dream and the nb are co sided large. Basically roughly 100000 tons is the line. Theres a sub class of mediums in there also

My personal opinion is that Miami will catch up real quick on the LNG front as more and more ships in general are starting to use it.Cargo ships and tankers are being built with it, and as one of the top ports it's a matter of time before Miami starts to see LNG powered ships. Carnival is another line that has several LNG ships in order, and has a pretty good sized presence in Miami. Miami would be foolish not to have some plan in the works.

This is just my guess but most likely the Dream will go to Miami full time, based on past practice when she was delivered and the Wonder which was doing the 3/4s moved out. The 2nd ship, is a 50/50 toss up between the Fantasy and 1 of the new builds. But based on the Miami wording, shes getting 2 of the Dream or nb or combo and at least 2 nb are going to PC. The 3rd ship at PC has not been clarified yet as to size or name. Just that it wil share a terminal with NCL.

 

[Quellman]

Best guess right now for 2023

PC
NB1
NB2
Fantasy(possibly nb3)

Miami
Dream
NB3 or Fantasy

Galveston
Magic

Alaska
Wonder

Europe
Magic


I'll have to go back and look to see if I missed any ports.Working off my phone at the moment and all my info is in my broken laptop.

Don't forget that they may continue exploring the Port of New Orleans. It took years from when the first photo was posted with DCL and the NO Port Master/President before a deal was reached. And even now, those cruises sold out fast!

 

[truck1]

Don't forget that they may continue exploring the Port of New Orleans. It took years from when the first photo was posted with DCL and the NO Port Master/President before a deal was reached. And even now, those cruises sold out fast!

It's possible, and theres other ports DCL could go to. Ft Lauderdale or Tampa as examples. Just based on the info we have now, coming from the existing contracts Miami PC and Galveston plus the Alaskan and European, there a little wiggle room but not much. Time will tell.

 

[dtk07]

The part i question is that 3 ships are going to homeport in PC but the amount of cruises per year are only increasing from 150 to 180 by 2023. Two ships doing 7 day cruises with the other doing 3's and 4s(not that they would do that) would be over 200 cruises a year out of PC. Two ships doing 3s & 4s plus a 7 day ship would put them at 260 cruises a year, way above 180. 180 departures a year is very unlikely for 3 full time ships.

That makes me wonder if ship #3 for PC. is only part-time. Gives Disney more options too.

 

[truck1]

The part i question is that 3 ships are going to homeport in PC but the amount of cruises per year are only increasing from 150 to 180 by 2023. Two ships doing 7 day cruises with the other doing 3's and 4s(not that they would do that) would be over 200 cruises a year out of PC. Two ships doing 3s & 4s plus a 7 day ship would put them at 260 cruises a year, way above 180. 180 departures a year is very unlikely for 3 full time ships.

That makes me wonder if ship #3 for PC. is only part-time. Gives Disney more options too.

went back and looked at the contract. As of 2023, DCL is required to make 216 stops per year.
Right now, the Dream and Fantasy do 156.
To get to 216, they would need another 60 cruises. Heres where it gets tricky. Were assuming that all 216 cruises originate and end at PC. The 3rd ship doing 7s would come up 8 short. (52 cruises assuming no storms drydocks etc) 3/4s would do it in about 7 months. So would a 4th ship doing port calls from say NY adding to the stops,which hasnt been mentioned recently. If I recall correctly, DCL still planned on using PC as a stop from NY or a start end point for tas or canal trips.

Nothing has been announced officially on the 3rd ship, but I wouldnt be surprised if DCL deliberately kept the port calls low since they've been burned big time in the past and almost caused them to walk away from PC.

 

[RedSox68]

I'd be happy if they changed up the ports once in awhile. I'd do the Eastern or Western multiple times if there were different ports.

Exactly. The port itineraries are old and if you cruise Disney regularly, then it becomes stale. I have said it before and it's worth saying again -- they need to fit in more 10-11 night cruises to the Southern Caribbean, etc. There are SO many ports that Disney has not even ventured to in the Caribbean that other lines to on a regular basis. Here's hoping. And my number one vote -- that Disney eventually goes to Cuba -- but it would have to be the Wonder or the Magic as the other ships (right now) are too big.

 

[DynamicDisneyDuo]

And my number one vote -- that Disney eventually goes to Cuba

They will probably wait on that to see what happens with the law suits against some of the cruise lines that are currently visiting Cuba.

 

[RedSox68]

They will probably wait on that to see what happens with the law suits against some of the cruise lines that are currently visiting Cuba.

Can you tell me which cruise line, because we are sailing to Cuba in October? Thanks.

 

[lklgoodman]

Can you tell me which cruise line, because we are sailing to Cuba in October? Thanks.

I saw on the news that Carnival is being sued, saw it several weeks ago. Didn't know others are also involved.

 

[DynamicDisneyDuo]

I saw on the news that Carnival is being sued, saw it several weeks ago. Didn't know others are also involved.

Yeah, Carnival is definitely being sued. I thought I had seen mention of Royal Caribbean as well but don't see it anywhere. Maybe it was a passing mention that they sail to Cuba as well and the lawyers might be thinking of going after them as well.

 

[Intr3pid]

Given that they paid the Dream class ships off VERY fast, it isn't unreasonable to think that was intentional versus just a coincidence.

Its DCL past practice. When the Dream class was delivered, Disney had a 5 year term to pay off the 2.4+ billion.The Dream class was so popular that the loan was able to be paid off in roughly 3 years as opposed to the 5 that the contract called for. It wasnt anyones rush it just worked out that way.

If you are referring to the construction loans, yes, those are paid off as soon as possible - just like the real estate projects on land - but not with own cash. You refinance them with operating debt.

Disney uses medium-term notes - and commercial paper - to refinance construction debt. The lenders get much more comfortable once they see the ship's operating margins. Disney's outside borrowings have increased pretty much every year in the last 10 years. Moreover, DCL was under Parks and Resort when Dream and Fantasy came along, so it would make a lot more sense to have your loans collaterized by a diversified set of assets at the Parks and Resorts level (vs by individual ships).

 

[WDW&DCLADDICT]

I Think Disney could easily do 8-9 night eastern's and southerns as well as in the future let the fantasy do mixes of 7 night Canada/ New England and Bermuda out of NYC in the summer once all three of the new ships come on line

 

[truck1]

If you are referring to the construction loans, yes, those are paid off as soon as possible - just like the real estate projects on land - but not with own cash. You refinance them with operating debt.

Disney uses medium-term notes - and commercial paper - to refinance construction debt. The lenders get much more comfortable once they see the ship's operating margins. Disney's outside borrowings have increased pretty much every year in the last 10 years. Moreover, DCL was under Parks and Resort when Dream and Fantasy came along, so it would make a lot more sense to have your loans collaterized by a diversified set of assets at the Parks and Resorts level (vs by individual ships).

Yes. I dont remember all of the specifics off hand, but I do remember Jay Rasulo who was interviewed by the Orlando Sentinel I think mentioned the pay off. The loan/payoff if I recall was for 5 years or was projected to pay themselves off in 5 years but was actually paid off early in just over 3 per ship.

From what I'm seeing just about every line does that. They go to multiple sources to build their ship, then let the ship pay it self off.

 

[truck1]

Yeah, Carnival is definitely being sued. I thought I had seen mention of Royal Caribbean as well but don't see it anywhere. Maybe it was a passing mention that they sail to Cuba as well and the lawyers might be thinking of going after them as well.

Carnival lawsuit. Carnival only at the moment. Give them time to see how this works out then the lawsuits may start flying