Newly released Virgin flights - when do prices settle?

[meryll83]

So I'm looking at MAN-MCO flights that have just been released, and the pricing is ridiculous to the point that I'm assuming it just cannot be correct.
Anyone have any experience of this and when realistic pricing sets in?

Looking at dummy dates a week or so earlier the pricing seems a bit better (although still not a price I'd be happy with), so it does seem patience is key - but it's not my strongest trait!

Might have to wait and see whether there's a Christmas/New Year sale and whether that brings any more joy...

 

[csimon]

No idea, I'm in the same boat (MAN to MCO)! The prices seem to be up about 25% on last year. However, it depends if your end date has been released or not. I've noticed that there looks to be some sort of holding price put in if your start date has been released but your end date hasn't, and this looks to be quite high. If you do flexible dates so you get a grid of possible dates then I've noticed a definite point at which the prices rocket even further and this is where the end date is still outside the window.

 

[Simee]

I'm looking for MAN-MCO too around the end of Nov 2020, ive been looking at packages and also just flights and all the prices seem ridiculous. I've switched to looking for Sep 2020 but theyre still really high priced

 

[csimon]

I'm looking for MAN-MCO too around the end of Nov 2020, ive been looking at packages and also just flights and all the prices seem ridiculous. I've switched to looking for Sep 2020 but theyre still really high priced

I'm looking for Mon 2nd Nov - Wed 11th. Already booked the Disney package (back in April!) as I just knew the hotel I wanted wouldn't be available when the flights are eventually released. The dates aren't quite available via V.A. yet but looking at the week and fortnight before, the Mon - Wed is quite expensive, with the Sun-Wed the cheapest. So if that holds true for my eventual dates I'll do what I did last time and book an extra night at the cheapest hotel for the Sunday. A bit of faffing around when changing hotel on the Monday morning but it works well because it gives me a full extra day at the parks on the Monday.

This will be my fourth trip to WDW, and two of the three previous times Virgin have changed the day of one my flights after booking, which has been annoying. Has that ever happened to you? They moved me from the Monday to the Sunday last time so that's why I decided to book the extra night, and although it cost me extra and was annoying, it actually worked out well as I got the extra full day at the last day of Festival of the Arts instead of a partial day.

Bear in mind too what I said about the "holdinbg price". Onyl dates up to Nov 6th-ish have been released genreally. If you look at the grid, any dates after that are shown but at an extremely high price. If you're looking at end of Nov then this could be why your prices are way too high. I'm looking at Premium Direct in particular, I don't know if Economy or Indirect works the same way.

 

[csimon]

This is what I mean about "holding prices", although the situation has worsened a lot since I looked yesterday! The Mon-Wed option was showing £1,011 last night. Anyway, my point about holding prices is that only dates up to Nov 5th are available to book, anything beyond that seems to get something completely outrageous.

These prices are ridiculous under any circumstances though and it also shows that no-one can give an answer as to when prices will become cheaper, as they change from day to day and are completely unpredictable.

 

[Spanish Buzz]

We had a similar experience for our August flights. Check the thread I posted ‘DDP and when to book flights’.
We were advised they would be the cheapest when they 1st came live but they were a ridiculous price. We watched EVERY day for a few days until we hit on a good drop in price. We also switched from Manchester to Glasgow as it was cheaper still and an earlier and shorter flight time. We booked and haven’t seen them as low since. There is a sale at Christmas but our advice would be to check every day - but use private browsing so cookies are not stored which we also felt made the prices inflate.
Good luck.

 

[cheryl.UK]

Can you be flexible? 27-4th seems like a way better price today. £1011

 

[csimon]

Can you be flexible? 27-4th seems like a way better price today. £1011

For my trip? No, the hotel I wanted is already booked and no longer available for those dates, but I can add a day either side at a different hotel if necessary. But it seems like the prices are up and down all the time, I'm holding out a bit longer to see what happens.

 

[tinkerbell1991]

I booked mine a few weeks ago for October 2020 and when I've just checked again, they're up £700! (Premium if that matters) ridiculous prices so I'm glad I booked when I did but keep an eye out for the January sales next month x

 

[meryll83]

Approx £1300pp for premium - is that not a bad price? Or still a bit high?

 

[jackieleanne]

Approx £1300pp for premium - is that not a bad price? Or still a bit high?

Definitely still high in my opinion.

 

[nursejackie]

Wow that's expensive! We flew for 8 years in December (around 9/10th to 27th) on Boxing Day and it was almost half that price. I fear we will be priced out of Disney World holidays in the future. Come on Jet2, there's a big market for direct flights from MAN to MCO!

 

[meryll83]

I was hoping for around £1100, which is what Gatwick is... can’t decide whether to hold my nerve and wait it out a little longer or get it booked in given we’re very restricted to our dates too. It’s higher than I would have liked at £1300 from Manchester, but maybe not extortionately so...

 

[meryll83]

Sadly it seems I’ve missed the £1300 window of opportunity as the prices have already soared again.
Hoping it’s just a sign that something better is to come if I’m patient (I’m just not very good at that!)

 

[csimon]

Sadly it seems I’ve missed the £1300 window of opportunity as the prices have already soared again.
Hoping it’s just a sign that something better is to come if I’m patient (I’m just not very good at that!)

It's completely pot luck and changes all the time. Just had a look myself for end of October-ish and £1,290 looks to be the lowest at the moment. Yuo jsut have to keep looking, hold your nerve and see what happens, but at what point do you give in and panic in case seats run out!

I think £1,300 is still high, but....perhaps it's the new norm with them "realigning their prices" considering Thomas Cook is now longer a competitor. I know prices vary according to time of year, but this is what I';v;e paid for direct flights from Manchester over the years:

2014 November [Economy]: £608
2018 February [Premium]: £851
2019 February/March [Premium]: £916

For reference, a month ago I went to Disney California (Los Angeles - quite a bit further than Orlando) with British Airways (not practical to go with Virgin from Manchester) and it was an indirect flight via Heathrow. This was £1,015 Premium, first week in November. Curiously, but not unexpectedly if you think about it, it would have been more expensive just taking the Heathrow to Los Angeles flight on its own. But because from Manchester was indirect, which has lower demand, it was cheaper even though it was four flights instead of two!

 

[cheryl.UK]

Putting this in context, Last week I paid £1108 pp for PE in for August next year, slap bang in the middle of the school holidays. They were £1345 in October when I started looking. That's Manchester to MCO

 

[atkinstogram]

We're flying September 2020, so were in your boat until recently. We were expecting the prices to drop once our return flight became available, but they just didn't.

So you need to either check daily, or set up a Google Flights alert to monitor when the prices drop. Prices were sitting at arounf £1250 for LHR-MCO return in Premium, then all of a sudden at the end of last month (but BEFORE Black Friday), the prices dropped to £840 each - which was pretty much the price I was expecting it to settle at. It went back up again the next day. As for what it's doing now, I don't know, and I don't care to check to find out!

Basically, check every day.

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Looking at the end November next year,virgin holidays prices for 3 adults in Upoer Class is a joke, over £10,000

I know I will be able to get Dublin to Gatwick to orlando for £4,500 with Chevy Tahoe and in club world.

I will wait until jan sales to hook however..

 

[csimon]

Well, I don't know how I managed this, but I've been very lucky! My (already booked) hotel dates are 2nd Nov to 11th Nov and as the release date for my return flight edged closer and closer I was getting increasingly worried as prices didn't seemed to be dropping at all for the dates released so far. Then yesterday, Nov 11th was released. But the price was £1,900+ all day. However, this was the same as all the subsequent unreleased dates, so I thought I'd try again just atfer midnight to see if anything "clicked over". Sure enough it did, and amazingly the price dropped to £925. And looking at the flexible grid, it seems a return flight of Nov 11th is indeed the cheapest regardless of your outbound flight. Or at least, that's the situation today. It will probably all change again tomorrow. Anyway, I blinked and booked it there and then rather than gambling on reward flights being available in a few days or the price dropping again in January. I used all my available air miles which took the price I paid down to £678. This also gives me a buffer in case Virgin decide to bump me onto an earlier flight instead as has happened twice before, I can book an extra night at a cheap hotel. Take from this experience what you will, I can't explain the logic at all as to when Virgin decide to release good prices.

 

[meryll83]

Glad you've had some luck - still struggling here, will keep trying multiple times daily - are there further sales in January to the one that’s just launched today? As that’s done nothing to help our dates unfortunately...