Poll: Guess what the first Riviera resale contracts listing price

[Drewferin]

This is a simple poll for people to guess what the first Riviera resale contracts will be listed for by resale brokers. Remember that resale Riviera contracts can ONLY be used at Riviera (Not the other 14 legacy resorts).

For what its worth CC began selling for $176 in 2017. The first resale contracts in Feb 2018 were in the $144 range. This is a drop of only $32 however there we no restrictions on CC contracts.

Even if you double the $32 drop for Riviera this would mean a $64 drop from their $188 pp direct price for Riviera. Lets see what all of you knowledgeable DVCs guess...

 

[RamblinWreck]

Over $150 I would think. And it will get bought.

 

[Bing Showei]

I voted over $150. I'm not saying that's what it will be worth; it'll be worth what a buyer is willing to pay; but owners do set the value of those first contracts. If you paid in at $188, above $150 is probably what you'll look for. CCV was around $150-$155, I think. Today, they still hover around $150.

 

[crvetter]

I voted 125-150, but I strongly suspect it will be above 150. If people are buying explicitly to stay at DRR and the only restriction is they can't use elsewhere, they aren't going to care. $150 is a significant savings over the direct prices, heck I might consider picking up a contract between $125-$150 since I'm strongly considering buying direct there exclusively to use there. I wouldn't be buying enough direct to get the incentives.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

It will never drop to the low numbers you have until it's getting near expiration.

Listing price? Over 150. Selling price? That's the question.

 

[The Jackal]

It will probably list around 150 and sell for $142-145 per point and will be a bad buy at that price. Similar to CCV. In 5 years I think it will be low 100-110 only because of restrictions. If they lift the restrictions then around 150 it should stay.

 

[zavandor]

The first resale contract is often put on the market at bonkers price. So I guess it'll be in the region of $170.

However more interesting would be to predict the price 5 years from now. And not in absolute terms, but relative to other resorts. Resale prices follow the status of the economy so a recession would hit all resorts. So what would be interesting would be to see how DRR would compare to the others. I would say it'll be priced in the region of SSR, possibly a bit less.

 

[vint43]

We purchased at the Riviera.

I would be shocked if they sold for over $130 and happy if they sold over $100. However, I really have no clue. We are not planning to sell.

Any price over $100, to me, is still far superior to almost every other timeshare out there in terms of retained value. Heck, the ability to sell it at all beats a lot of them.

 

[JETSDAD]

I picked over $150. An early sale is likely because someone got in over their head, has a loan, and can't afford to sell for much less

 

[stewart715]

What it lists for and what it sells for are two very different things. Considering that SSR contracts are selling for about $100 a point with access to all O14, I would guess DRR sells for around $50-75 a point for access to DRR only. If there are changes where DRR resale members can book O14 for a fee, then that will go up. DRR is nice, but to be blunt it is not VGF or BWV or BCV. I personally do not see it a resort with no entertainment or park access within walking distance being a place where people are willing to pay high amounts to stay only there. If you sold VGF for $150 a point with access to no where else, it would sell. I just don’t think DRR will. I mean, who in their right mind would spend $150 on DRR only when you can buy BWV for $125 and stay anywhere. Sure the contract is half the length but to most, 2042 is still unfathomably far away.

DVD is also going to be strategic in this. They will intentionally let DRR contracts pass through ROFR at $50 a point (for example) as to keep the resale price low to not only encourage existing owners to not sell their contracts but to keep a steady flow of contracts being bought for a low price that they can ROFR and flip for $188.

Ultimately, my guess is the DRR resale inventory will be light with a wildly unstable price history. I would expect this for all new resorts going forward until BWV/BCV is re-sold many years from now.

 

[wnielsen1]

What it lists for and what it sells for are two very different things. Considering that SSR contracts are selling for about $100 a point with access to all O14, I would guess DRR sells for around $50-75 a point for access to DRR only.

This is not happening. I'm willing to pay at least $100/point and many others are probably willing to pay more.

 

[stewart715]

This is not happening. I'm willing to pay at least $100/point and many others are probably willing to pay more.

You need an entire market to agree with you. No disrespect, but you’re one person. People are still buying BWV direct for $190 a point but yet the resale market sits $125-135. Direct benefits aren’t worth $60-70pp. Outliers exist, but they certainly can’t drive a market. And to say you’re willing to pay $100pp to stay at a resort (and only that resort) that isn’t even finished being built and have no idea what the experience will be like whether it be transportation (skyliner) or dining is a bit premature, no?

 

[The Jackal]

Even Aulani resale sells for more than $50. The resort that will never sell out. I know it is s different beast, but DRR is a WDW resort and it looks to be just below VGF for luxury. Lots of people would grab it at $100 just to stay there.

 

[anomamatt]

If you sold VGF for $150 a point with access to no where else, it would sell. I just don’t think DRR will.

It remains to be seen, but DVC truly believes RVA will be the VGF of EPCOT/DHS. And this is exactly the argument my guide made when I questioned her on the resale restrictions: that no one buys VGF to stay elsewhere (direct or resale) and no one will buy RVA to stay elsewhere. I have not seen the models in person, but they do have the same vibe as VGF. And as long as the Skyliner delivers (I see no reason why it won't), the transportation at RVA is superior to VGF.

I think the jury is out... But even if people are willing to stay in RVA, but don't love it, it won't be less than $100 (perhaps right around $100). Someone would be insane to sell for $50/point. At that point it would be so much smarter to rent the points versus taking a massive loss.

 

[stewart715]

Even Aulani resale sells for more than $50. The resort that will never sell out. I know it is s different beast, but DRR is a WDW resort and it looks to be just below VGF for luxury. Lots of people would grab it at $100 just to stay there.

How is Aulani comparable? You can stay anywhere you want with Aulani points.

 

[crvetter]

You need an entire market to agree with you. No disrespect, but you’re one person. People are still buying BWV direct for $190 a point but yet the resale market sits $125-135. Direct benefits aren’t worth $60-70pp. Outliers exist, but they certainly can’t drive a market. And to say you’re willing to pay $100pp to stay at a resort (and only that resort) that isn’t even finished being built and have no idea what the experience will be like whether it be transportation (skyliner) or dining is a bit premature, no?

Well I think by the time resale hits the market the resort will be open. Also people are buying BWV and BCV and mostly using the points exclusively there. So I would personally never expect it to go less than SSR. While Riviera may fall in price when listed for resale, because it’s not BCV/BWV, both everyone seems to agree is expensive for the sole purpose of staying there, eventually in 5-10 years I think it will start to rise in price, likely significantly. This is if Disney doesn’t build another resort with compelling access to Epcot or HS or the Boardwalk area. Eventually at some point BCV/BWV prices are going to crash simply because the contracts will be close to expiring and people will still be trying to sell stripped contracts making them pretty unattractive. This will make Riviera super compelling and the only game in town possibly thus increasing its appeal.

This is already why I don’t see Riviera selling as cheap as SSR because for some it already is the only game in town.

 

[wnielsen1]

You need an entire market to agree with you. No disrespect, but you’re one person. People are still buying BWV direct for $190 a point but yet the resale market sits $125-135. Direct benefits aren’t worth $60-70pp. Outliers exist, but they certainly can’t drive a market. And to say you’re willing to pay $100pp to stay at a resort (and only that resort) that isn’t even finished being built and have no idea what the experience will be like whether it be transportation (skyliner) or dining is a bit premature, no?

Yeah, I'll take the chance. $50/point is not happening. $75/point is not happening. Not in the first 10 years. Be great if it did. I will be loaded up with Riviera points.

 

[stewart715]

Well I think by the time resale hits the market the resort will be open. Also people are buying BWV and BCV and mostly using the points exclusively there. So I would personally never expect it to go less than SSR. While Riviera may fall in price when listed for resale, because it’s not BCV/BWV, both everyone seems to agree is expensive for the sole purpose of staying there, eventually in 5-10 years I think it will start to rise in price, likely significantly. This is if Disney doesn’t build another resort with compelling access to Epcot or HS or the Boardwalk area. Eventually at some point BCV/BWV prices are going to crash simply because the contracts will be close to expiring and people will still be trying to sell stripped contracts making them pretty unattractive. This will make Riviera super compelling and the only game in town possibly thus increasing its appeal.

This is already why I don’t see Riviera selling as cheap as SSR because for some it already is the only game in town.

Yes but most buy BWV points knowing they CAN stay somewhere else. You pay a premium for that. Even if you don’t intend to stay somewhere else. That flexibility matters and is built into the value of your contract. The next BWV buyer of your contract may want to try other places. And they can.

 

[anomamatt]

People are still buying BWV direct for $190 a point but yet the resale market sits $125-135. Direct benefits aren’t worth $60-70pp.

I'm not saying direct is a better value (it's not), but when these comparisons are made, they are not apples-to-apples. It's usually a stripped resale versus fully loaded direct. At $15/point/year, depending on how stripped the resale contract is, your $60-70/point gets much closer to $30/point.

 

[stewart715]

I'm not saying direct is a better value (it's not), but when these comparisons are made, they are not apples-to-apples. It's usually a stripped resale versus fully loaded direct. At $15/point/year, depending on how stripped the resale contract is, your $60-70/point gets much closer to $30/point.

That is fair.