Resale Values after 2042

[Lclark5678]

I’m just curious. What do we think will happen to resale values as 2042 approaches? Is it likely the value will remain close to what it is today because of inflation? Will it be worth more because these DVC resorts are in prime locations (and inflation)? Less, because fewer resorts will be available for use?
What is your opinion?

 

[Katie2]

I’ve actually thought about this a lot. My thoughts are (after review of the POS) that at some point DVD will pull out the card that limits you to your home resort. Once that happens, resale values will stagnate or decrease due to availability issues. A lot will be dictated by how Disney handles the 2042 transition, but I haven’t seen anything that indicates they will keep the best interest of resale buyers in mind. More than likely they will re-sell the expiring resorts into DVD2 (with riviera and reflections) thereby extending the “trade feature” if you buy direct, but enforcing the new rule that resale buyers are limited to their home resort.

 

[stewart715]

There are going to be a few factors (one you mentioned):

- Inflation
- Cash rack rates (not always correlated to inflation)
- Demand (50th anniversary specifically may eat some resale inventory)
- Direct pricing (whatever Disney prices these resorts at will affect the resale market)
- ROFR (Disney ultimately controls how cheap you can get a resale contract)
- Restrictions

As of the last 6 months, the 2042 resorts are still climbing in value. They will continue to do so for some time before they plateau and then dip slightly as it goes into single digit years. We are over a decade away from that.

Consider the average cost of a BWV contract at $135pp or so. For 76 points, that would cost you $10,260 + MF. In 2042, the cash rack rate of a studio in adventure season (76 points) will be much more than that (and you can get 23 years of those studios for that price right now). So, for example, $250-300pp with 9 years left may sound insane now, but probably won't be 15 years from now. But again, it all depends on the above factors.

Recently, even small BWV contracts have been selling at around $165 per point (which is only $6 off (!!! !!!) of the direct pricing 8 months ago).

 

[jerseyduke]

Are you talking 2042 resorts or the ones that are expiring later?

2042 resorts will fall in value as they only have a few years left on them.

As for the newer ones, @stewart715 kinda nails it, but I think you really have to highlight the restrictions aspect. We do not even know how Riviera is going to go over in the resale market.

I do not know what will come after Reflections, but I am sure Disney will have something, so I think there will still be a decent amount of resorts to switch into.

Lack of resorts to switch into will hurt Direct sales more, imo, because Disney touts that as a selling point, while those of us in the know, realize it isnt exactly that simple. Disney doesn't really inform people that switching at the 7 month window can very hard, or even virtually impossible. However, I bet in 2040, Disney fails to mention that in 2 years you will not be able to switch into OKW, BWV, BCV, VBR, HHI, VB to their direct customers!

Hopefully I will have a better answer as 2042 approaches, and I am semi-retired and piloting the monorail.

 

[stewart715]

Are you talking 2042 resorts or the ones that are expiring later?

2042 resorts will fall in value as they only have a few years left on them.

As for the newer ones, @stewart715 kinda nails it, but I think you really have to highlight the restrictions aspect. We do not even know how Riviera is going to go over in the resale market.

I do not know what will come after Reflections, but I am sure Disney will have something, so I think there will still be a decent amount of resorts to switch into.

Lack of resorts to switch into will hurt Direct sales more, imo, because Disney touts that as a selling point, while those of us in the know, realize it isnt exactly that simple. Disney doesn't really inform people that switching at the 7 month window can very hard, or even virtually impossible. However, I bet in 2040, Disney fails to mention that in 2 years you will not be able to switch into OKW, BWV, BCV, VBR, HHI, VB to their direct customers!

Hopefully I will have a better answer as 2042 approaches, and I am semi-retired and piloting the monorail.

I believe OP is referring to the 2042 resorts. So far, at least as far as BCV and BWV go, we haven't seen a decrease yet. I think they are wondering when that will turn around. And my guess was that they may never go down until single digit years remain. And before that, they will likely plateau for some time. But it really depends the bullets I mentioned. If we hit another recession and WDW becomes a ghost town again, all prices (including direct) will drop overnight.

 

[Lclark5678]

Sorry I wasn’t more specific. I’m most curious in regards to resorts with later expiration dates that are of the original DVC 14.

 

[stewart715]

Sorry I wasn’t more specific. I’m most curious in regards to resorts with later expiration dates that are of the original DVC 14.

Ah! So I was wrong

I think resorts with later expiration like PVB, BLT, VGF etc. will drastically go up in price after 2042 from their pre-2042 prices. Mostly because I expect the 2042 resorts (BWV/BCV) to be priced (when resold as new) so astronomically high that the entire resale market will be positively affected.

 

[Lclark5678]

I’ve actually thought about this a lot. My thoughts are (after review of the POS) that at some point DVD will pull out the card that limits you to your home resort. Once that happens, resale values will stagnate or decrease due to availability issues. A lot will be dictated by how Disney handles the 2042 transition, but I haven’t seen anything that indicates they will keep the best interest of resale buyers in mind. More than likely they will re-sell the expiring resorts into DVD2 (with riviera and reflections) thereby extending the “trade feature” if you buy direct, but enforcing the new rule that resale buyers are limited to their home resort.

What do you mean they will limit you to your home resort? Are you referring to a possible new resale restriction, or is this something they can enact for those already under contract? Thanks

 

[stewart715]

What do you mean they will limit you to your home resort? Are you referring to a possible new resale restriction, or is this something they can enact for those already under contract? Thanks

I would be utterly shocked if they ever added restrictions to O14. And I don't think they can even legally do it; to new or old resale contracts. There would be a class action suit in the works minutes after such an announcement. The business would be affected very negatively and you'd have many angry owners who will never purchase a contract again.

 

[jerseyduke]

I’ve actually thought about this a lot. My thoughts are (after review of the POS) that at some point DVD will pull out the card that limits you to your home resort.

I did not think they could do this - I thought the exchange program was part of the multi-site POS, am I incorrect?

 

[PolyRob]

I’ve actually thought about this a lot. My thoughts are (after review of the POS) that at some point DVD will pull out the card that limits you to your home resort.

If Disney could do this, why didn’t it with the latest resale restriction? Not that Riviera doesn’t look nice, but I can’t see it being THE resort Disney decides it doesn’t want people trading into when purchasing resale. Just the first resort built after the idea of the new restriction. I am guessing Disney reworked the POS to make this possible for Riviera and beyond whereas the original 14 can’t be restricted this way.

 

[Sandisw]

I also think it depends on what Disney decides to do with those 2042 expiring resorts for the people who own points there. I know the OKW extension didn't go as they had hoped, but they could decide to allow for some sort of extension. The other option is that these resorts will become newly named resorts and be part of the group that will include Rivera. Current owners there might be able to buy in first or for a bit of a cheaper price...the one thing I am sure of is that they will find a way to keep them DVC. So, depending on what they do, I think that will play a role in the value of the other resorts as if they are no longer classified as part of O14, then those resorts still left would have trading power into fewer resorts. Just my thoughts.

 

[stewart715]

I also think it depends on what Disney decides to do with those 2042 expiring resorts for the people who own points there. I know the OKW extension didn't go as they had hoped, but they could decide to allow for some sort of extension. The other option is that these resorts will become newly named resorts and be part of the group that will include Rivera. Current owners there might be able to buy in first or for a bit of a cheaper price...the one thing I am sure of is that they will find a way to keep them DVC. So, depending on what they do, I think that will play a role in the value of the other resorts as if they are no longer classified as part of O14, then those resorts still left would have trading power into fewer resorts. Just my thoughts.

Very true. Getting a bit off topic but, my completely uneducated guess is BWV gets extended and BCV does not. Simply because BCV is a more sought after property, is quite small, and can be rebuilt/extended (into undeveloped property behind it) without much disruption to the hotel side of things (it is a very separate entity to the BC/YC hotel).

BWV, on the other hand, has no available property to extend, is already a decent size and would disrupt not only the businesses on the boardwalk itself, but the Inn as it is tied directly to the Inn and surrounds the main pool for the Inn. So a major rebuild could prove challenging. I also don't think they want both of these resorts to expire at the same time and be out of commission at the same time.

Doesn't mean much for resale values going forward though because it is 100% speculation.

 

[katandmouse]

From what I’ve read in the POS, DVC cannot limit resale L14 to only their home resorts because that restriction refers back to each Resort Agreement. Only Riviera’s Resort Agreement distinguishes between “certain” members (ie direct and resale). The other problem I have with the restriction is that the Resort Agreements all say that existing members will have access to any new resorts, so when Reflections opens and they restrict resale L14 from booking there, I believe that will be in violation of the Resort Agreements. But I digress...

Now as 2042 approaches - I read somewhere that DVC might have to restrict trading at 7 months and/or banking/borrowing for everyone because of the number of points in the system and how many points are needed to book rooms those last few years at the expiring resorts. Think, each resort is sold to full occupancy 51/52 weeks a year - so how can they make sure there’s not an overload of points one year as owners try to get their last trips in?

As for BCV and BWV resale values and any extensions, I agree with what @stewart715 said, and also all good points that influence resale pricing.

 

[Katie2]

At any time, Disney has the discretion to restrict members to their home resort, and the POS allows for the booking window to be manipulated. Therefore, we can run into a situation where direct buyers are given first dibs on booking. That would destroy the resale market, and prevent people from being able to unload their resale contracts. Disney secures their MFs, and limits your ability to reserve rooms.

 

[jerseyduke]

(snip)
Now as 2042 approaches - I read somewhere that DVC might have to restrict trading at 7 months and/or banking/borrowing for everyone because of the number of points in the system and how many points are needed to book rooms those last few years at the expiring resorts. Think, each resort is sold to full occupancy 51/52 weeks a year - so how can they make sure there’s not an overload of points one year as owners try to get their last trips in?
(snip)

I have wondered about this as well, but then I look at it, and think well, if i bank my 2019 points then (albeit absurdly) there is no availability in 2020 whatsoever, my points expire and get lost. Is that DVC's problem? I do not think it is, I think its mine. Logistically it is 2 very different scenarios (as there will be a place to book in 2020), but legally it is the same concept. But I have no idea

 

[jerseyduke]

At any time, Disney has the discretion to restrict members to their home resort, and the POS allows for the booking window to be manipulated. Therefore, we can run into a situation where direct buyers are given first dibs on booking. That would destroy the resale market, and prevent people from being able to unload their resale contracts. Disney secures their MFs, and limits your ability to reserve rooms.

Do you have a link to this?
I am only going by memory but I thought the POS guaranteed you the right to switch up until the expiration date of the previous resort's expiration. (EG: CCV owners have the right to switch out up until the Polynesian lease runs out - they can not guarantee you the right to anything in the future)

The booking window can be manipulated, but home resort advantage has to be at least one month.

 

[Katie2]

Do you have a link to this?
I am only going by memory but I thought the POS guaranteed you the right to switch up until the expiration date of the previous resort's expiration. (EG: CCV owners have the right to switch out up until the Polynesian lease runs out - they can not guarantee you the right to anything in the future)

The booking window can be manipulated, but home resort advantage has to be at least one month.

I read it this weekend as I was sifting through all the rules and regulations for a new AKV contract we are in the middle of closing on. I will pull it up and cite to the specific sections, but I do remember reading it and seeing a clear outline for how they can take this “to the next level.”

 

[Lclark5678]

I read it this weekend as I was sifting through all the rules and regulations for a new AKV contract we are in the middle of closing on. I will pull it up and cite to the specific sections, but I do remember reading it and seeing a clear outline for how they can take this “to the next level.”

I would like to see this as well

 

[AvidDisReader]

When thinking about availability, the 2042 includes some 6mm points that come in from HHI and VB but only a fraction of that going into those resorts. If rumors are true, and both are sold after 2042, that will cause a significant amount of demand that will disappear. I would assume (a loaded word) that BWV and BC will somehow be re developed and resold as new resorts (remember OKW will not technically all expire in 2042). Yet overall, losing HHI and VB will be a positive for the system at WDW. The big question, how are they going to handle the millions of points from Hawaii when that expires, as that is another resort that is overtaxing of the system.