ROFR Thread January to March 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Dandreta]

Got it! Apologies for my incorrect assumptions!

Again - what I said had p values of .05 or less so there are definitely statistically significant aspects. My assumption of the “why” is just that- an assumption.

I can add a differentiator by UY but it makes the math foggy so I didn’t want to be confusing and didn’t know if it was common sense or semi valuable

Copy that. I took “there are some other less significant factors like UY” to mean you didn’t think it was an important determinant.

Dec UY is a great UY to buy direct for exactly the reason I outlined above. Buying on Nov 30th of 2019, one would receive 2018 UY points as well as paying roughly 1/12th of the 2019 ADs with all of 2019 UY points coming the next day.

 

[Bing Showei]

I can add a differentiator by UY but it makes the math foggy so I didn’t want to be confusing and didn’t know if it was common sense or semi valuable

Foggy math is exactly why the general consensus is that the ROFR monkey spends most of his days sloshed.

Good luck reading the tea leaves.

 

[Dandreta]

Dude - a p value of .05 is not tea leaves. I’m talking human interpretation of numbers becomes difficult. I am not trying to say the numbers are wrong I’m trying to say a “drunken monkey” is only an answer whenever the variables don’t make sense and statistically they do. You can keep talking drunk monkey. That’s cool. I was trying to help with science and statistics but apparently it’s unwanted or unneeded

Foggy math is exactly why the general consensus is that the ROFR monkey spends most of his days sloshed.

Good luck reading the tea leaves.

 

[Bobb_o]

Had my offer accepted for AKV at $115 for 120 points. I knohw that's a little high but I'm hoping based on that it doesn't get taken.

 

[sndral]

Hi all -

I have been watching this thread as I impatiently wait for my ROFR to come back. We made an offer on AKL (160 points, June UY, 85 points from 2018 for $103). But I have been running regressions on the data from this site and geeking out with the data

My speculation based on AKL analysis is that the striped contracts are going faster because of the seller fee aspect. Disney can take a contract that has 2019’fees paid, restock it and resell it and then get the new buyer to pay 2019 fees again. Making the price an additional $6-$7 a point cheaper.

So I started analyzing with the assumed buyer credit and dropped the closing costs (assuming Disney closes on their own). If you take your total cost less the buyer fees (there are some other less significant factors like UY) but take your Price per point times #of points MINUS seller paid costs. Then divide by number of points The “take price” for AKL was $100.38. Higher for Feb use year and less for others. I think I’m missing data like seller agency (the fees by each agency differ which would impact price per point) but it’s directional

If anyone is interested I can run regressions on some
Other resorts to see if I can find a similar “take” number

Dude - a p value of .05 is not tea leaves. I’m talking human interpretation of numbers becomes difficult. I am not trying to say the numbers are wrong I’m trying to say a “drunken monkey” is only an answer whenever the variables don’t make sense and statistically they do. You can keep talking drunk monkey. That’s cool. I was trying to help with science and statistics but apparently it’s unwanted or unneeded

Analysis of numbers is always interesting to me, if you want to get a bigger sample size go to the OC Comptroller site http://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp
The formula to get the total amt. paid is deed doc. tax amt./.70 x 100. To get how much per point sometimes the deed will say the number of points, others you’ll have to note the % of the unit number & then dig into the unit number % for the resort to get the number of points. Type in Disney in the grantee box which will pull up all deeds purchased or taken back by DVC. Also you can limit your search to specific times.
Other’s have gone further and used advanced search to find the going price on resale sales.
I will say that ROFR seems to be a moving target, by the time we think we see a pattern DVC seems to have moved on to new goals/targets.

 

[Bing Showei]

Dude - a p value of .05 is not tea leaves. I’m talking human interpretation of numbers becomes difficult. I am not trying to say the numbers are wrong I’m trying to say a “drunken monkey” is only an answer whenever the variables don’t make sense and statistically they do. You can keep talking drunk monkey. That’s cool. I was trying to help with science and statistics but apparently it’s unwanted or unneeded

Hmmm... it seems my casual use of the term "tea leaves" has been interpreted to be a trivialization of the analysis you're doing. It wasn't. The "tea leaves" I'm referring to is the seemingly random process by which contracts are taken; not your methodology, the work you've done, or the conclusions you've drawn from that work.

I'm actually a proponent of both science and statistics and I applaud your efforts to decode whatever the algorithm is that is being used by Disney to decide what is taken and what isn't. I was simply wishing you luck with that, not disparaging it.

In fact, I hope you continue those efforts and share your findings... which will be that statistically, there probably really is a drunk monkey. [winky face]

 

[HappilyEverAfter2007]

Had my offer accepted for AKV at $115 for 120 points. I knohw that's a little high but I'm hoping based on that it doesn't get taken.

Our 120 contract at AKV passed on the 6th, still waiting on darn title documents but here is to hoping yours passes as well!!! ROFR seems to have picked up its pace a bit. Wish I could say the same for First American Title.

 

[Shannon G.]

Had my offer accepted for AKV at $115 for 120 points. I knohw that's a little high but I'm hoping based on that it doesn't get taken.

Congratulations!

 

[JereMary]

New post on DVC Resale Market blog share the average resale prices for Feb. https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2019/

 

[Dandreta]

That is awesome!! Thanks so much. There were a few inputs where I had an insufficient sample (certain use years and contract sizes) so I couldn’t get a conclusive number. I’ll pull this down and see what I can figure out (or as everyone has stated - not figure out)

I also went back in time of these posts and grabbed the data there too. I included the month and year submitted and the month and year passed thru ROFR. They didn’t have significant relationships with the accept/reject status though so I excluded them from my final. I also dropped in the retail price at the time of the take/reject. It didn’t occur to me until right now but I will also drop in a column for future value/present value of dollar values to try to right size the amounts somewhat.

I understand completely that it’s a moving target. I definitely wasn’t trying to get anyone upset or substantiate anything untrue... I just think numbers are interesting and wasn’t sure if anyone had looked at it this way so I thought I’d share with any fellow number geeks

(To be transparent - I know enough to be dangerous about deriving statistics myself but I Work with their outputs from our statisticians every day)

Thanks again for your help with expanding the data source!! That’s pretty awesome (but my husband will definitely roll his eyes at me tonight when I pull more data in to keep working on this. He thinks I’m crazy!)

Analysis of numbers is always interesting to me, if you want to get a bigger sample size go to the OC Comptroller

The formula to get the total amt. paid is deed doc. tax amt./.70 x 100. To get how much per point sometimes the deed will say the number of points, others you’ll have to note the % of the unit number & then dig into the unit number % for the resort to get the number of points. Type in Disney in the grantee box which will pull up all deeds purchased or taken back by DVC. Also you can limit your search to specific times.
Other’s have gone further and used advanced search to find the going price on resale sales.
I will say that ROFR seems to be a moving target, by the time we think we see a pattern DVC seems to have moved on to new goals/targets.

 

[kboo]

That is awesome!! Thanks so much. There were a few inputs where I had an insufficient sample (certain use years and contract sizes) so I couldn’t get a conclusive number. I’ll pull this down and see what I can figure out (or as everyone has stated - not figure out)

I also went back in time of these posts and grabbed the data there too. I included the month and year submitted and the month and year passed thru ROFR. They didn’t have significant relationships with the accept/reject status though so I excluded them from my final. I also dropped in the retail price at the time of the take/reject. It didn’t occur to me until right now but I will also drop in a column for future value/present value of dollar values to try to right size the amounts somewhat.

I understand completely that it’s a moving target. I definitely wasn’t trying to get anyone upset or substantiate anything untrue... I just think numbers are interesting and wasn’t sure if anyone had looked at it this way so I thought I’d share with any fellow number geeks

(To be transparent - I know enough to be dangerous about deriving statistics myself but I Work with their outputs from our statisticians every day)

Thanks again for your help with expanding the data source!! That’s pretty awesome (but my husband will definitely roll his eyes at me tonight when I pull more data in to keep working on this. He thinks I’m crazy!)

I am also a science nerd, so thank you for doing this. Sampling from posted ROFR data here probably introduces a little bias. The group here are probably more informed than most DVC buyers, and are willing to lose a few contracts to ROFR before passing. Also, as maybe @Bing Showei said upthread, Drunken Monkey changes its goals every so often. Two years or so ago, contracts with current UY points were taken most often, and stripped contracts almost always passed. Now it's changed.

Anyway, it gives everyone something to think about while waiting for their perfect contract to pass ROFR.

 

[Katie L]

Dude - a p value of .05 is not tea leaves. I’m talking human interpretation of numbers becomes difficult. I am not trying to say the numbers are wrong I’m trying to say a “drunken monkey” is only an answer whenever the variables don’t make sense and statistically they do. You can keep talking drunk monkey. That’s cool. I was trying to help with science and statistics but apparently it’s unwanted or unneeded

I don't think Bing was trying to condescend to you or suggest you stop. I think it was more about laughing at Disney being random and us hoping to figure it out but them seeming more scattershot than we can figure it out. But maybe you'll have a breakthrough!

I don't want to just bump our price up $5 every contract. It'd be much better to figure out the pattern - because Disney obviously does not ONLY consider price. There is some bubble where they look at other factors over pricing. I think they factor in all buyer costs - I think that's a big component of why they are buying less loaded contracts. Because they don't want to pay for those points that they don't need - when they re-sell those ROFR'ed contracts they have a pool of existing points they can pull from - no need to pay for those. But this is all my assumption based on nothing like the analysis others - like you - have done.

 

[Kevinj89]

Kevinj89---$142-$27971-180-BLT-Mar-0/18, 182/19, 180/20, 180/21- sent 3/18

 

[Dandreta]

That’s fair - I am known to misread people so will be the first to admit my faults here (which is why I stick with numbers. My people skills are obviously lacking!) I apologize if I stepped on any toes. I got excited about it and had to share with someone aside from my husband (he thinks I’m crazy) and maybe it was unjust!

The way my brain was thinking through it is that with enough data we can have a close shot at the algorithm Disney uses for the different aspects (# of points, resort, use year, price, month of sale, etc) then we all have a better idea of the minimum/maximum we should offer... why lose money if we don’t have to? Or why lose the perfect contract over a dollar or two per point.

There will always be anomalies and I know it will never be perfect but there has to be logic (at least logic for 95%) But maybe that’s where my thinking is wrong and it’s all just random

Apologies again to everyone if I stepped on toes. It wasn’t intentional at all

I don't think Bing was trying to condescend to you or suggest you stop. I think it was more about laughing at Disney being random and us hoping to figure it out but them seeming more scattershot than we can figure it out. But maybe you'll have a breakthrough!

I don't want to just bump our price up $5 every contract. It'd be much better to figure out the pattern - because Disney obviously does not ONLY consider price. There is some bubble where they look at other factors over pricing. I think they factor in all buyer costs - I think that's a big component of why they are buying less loaded contracts. Because they don't want to pay for those points that they don't need - when they re-sell those ROFR'ed contracts they have a pool of existing points they can pull from - no need to pay for those. But this is all my assumption based on nothing like the analysis others - like you - have done.

 

[Katie L]

That’s fair - I am known to misread people so will be the first to admit my faults here (which is why I stick with numbers. My people skills are obviously lacking!) I apologize if I stepped on any toes. I got excited about it and had to share with someone aside from my husband (he thinks I’m crazy) and maybe it was unjust!

The way my brain was thinking through it is that with enough data we can have a close shot at the algorithm Disney uses for the different aspects (# of points, resort, use year, price, month of sale, etc) then we all have a better idea of the minimum/maximum we should offer... why lose money if we don’t have to? Or why lose the perfect contract over a dollar or two per point.

There will always be anomalies and I know it will never be perfect but there has to be logic (at least logic for 95%) But maybe that’s where my thinking is wrong and it’s all just random

Apologies again to everyone if I stepped on toes. It wasn’t intentional at all

I really look forward to your results set! Maybe it will guide our next offer - as I expect this one to be taken. (Though I'm testing my random/non-analysis use year + points available scheme.)

 

[mlittig]

Our 120 contract at AKV passed on the 6th, still waiting on darn title documents but here is to hoping yours passes as well!!! ROFR seems to have picked up its pace a bit. Wish I could say the same for First American Title.

Good luck with First American Title, HappilyEverAfter2007 ~ they are horrendous It will be 8 weeks tomorrow since my contract passed ROFR and it still has not closed It took over 7 weeks just to get the closing documents My other title companies were fabulous, efficient and quick but not this one

 

[kenyoncad]

We just heard our Poly contact closed today. It was sent on 2/15, passed ROFR 3/4 and closed 3/18. Everything has been super smooth and surprisingly easy.

This is our first contact, so what sort of time frame are we looking at before we get our member info from DVC, so we can start using those points?

 

[vanjust14]

We just heard our Poly contact closed today. It was sent on 2/15, passed ROFR 3/4 and closed 3/18. Everything has been super smooth and surprisingly easy.

This is our first contact, so what sort of time frame are we looking at before we get our member info from DVC, so we can start using those points?

My contract closed 3/1 and I was able to get my membership number over the phone on 3/15.

 

[kenyoncad]

My contract closed 3/1 and I was able to get my membership number over the phone on 3/15.

Awesome, so did you just call the member services number, or is there a special number I would need?

 

[vanjust14]

Awesome, so did you just call the member services number, or is there a special number I would need?

Call Membership Administration, (800) 800-9800, option 2.
Congrats!