Still locked down this fall?

[Wendy31]

I think it would have taken more than a 2 week national shutdown since the virus apparently has a 14 day incubation.

However, if we had had a nation-wide month long shutdown from about mid-March to mid-April where all states were cooperating & doing the same things at the same time, that might have helped.

It also would have helped had everyone, from the beginning, taken the social distancing seriously.

 

[gotomu212]

I think it’s going to depend on 2 things.
1. Increased testing so we can figure out how many cases individual communities had, including getting real data on mild cases- right not there is a lot of guessing and speculation, but real increased testing will show whether we’ve hit peaks or not.

2 Just how bad it gets. Whether or not we are officially shutdown or whether large majorities are choosing to isolate- if everyone starts knowing people that have died, or people know someone who had a baby at a field hospital because it wasn’t safe to go to the regular hospital, or had to watch a livestream of a family funeral (that was a first for me today- not a covid death but it’s hard to describe watching a family members funeral alone in your home even though it was not a “close” member). If people begin to have these shared experiences I think many people will stop itching for things to open up and will be a lot more conservative about self isolating which could lead to de facto shutdowns.

 

[dclpluto]

I said before I see wdw opening back up on oct 1. Just my guess. But other things will open up before that time. Don’t take the word of mine or one healthcare worker. Listen to the experts. Someday this country will have to get back to normal. Even if more people are dying.

 

[belleatdisney]

The experts are already talking about it possibly reducing in summer and coming back in fall. But per Dr. Fauci the virus will do what it wants.

I think a nationwide shutdown would help.

Personally, if this settles down I am going to get a second freezer and stock it up.

 

[Notrealname]

The social distance efforts began way to late. The public health professionals urged earlier action, but their recommendations fell on deaf ears at the federal level and it was hushed up until it could no longer be ignored.

Based on that, and a whole lot more, I have little hope that he will listen to the health experts on how long to keep things tightened down. I fully expect a push to reopen too quickly and for us to experience a cycle (not seasonal) of breakouts and the accompanying shutdowns. My hope is that the sensible governors will continue to do the right things.

 

[monarchsfan16]

I will lose my mind if we are still locked down in 6 months.

 

[morgan98]

I think it would have taken more than a 2 week national shutdown since the virus apparently has a 14 day incubation.

However, if we had had a nation-wide month long shutdown from about mid-March to mid-April where all states were cooperating & doing the same things at the same time, that might have helped.

It also would have helped had everyone, from the beginning, taken the social distancing seriously.

This is what makes me crazy. I self quarantined for the full 14 days after picking my husband who was returning from Italy at the airport late the night of March 9th. By Friday the 13th, the firm I work for decided to switch to WFH. I have been at this 21 days at this point. I feel like these three weeks (which have felt like an eternity) have done little to help. Neighbors are hosting parties, kids are having play dates - people are acting like these are a bunch of snow days. (granted, not EVERYONE, but enough). Had we locked down on Friday the 13th or heck, even the 20th, we could perhaps started to emerge around April 20th. It just seems like there is no plan.

I turn 50 on April 18th. I would have never guessed any of this would have happened - not in a million years. As each day passes, I feel like I will be in this same place then too.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Americans will not heed any warnings. They are fleeing from heavily infected areas and spreading it even more quickly across the country....making it almost impossible to keep up much less get ahead of this monster.

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

I don't know if we will still be locked down in the fall, but I don't think things will have returned to normal at all. Personally I don't think we're going to see normal returning until there is either a widely available and effective vaccine, or else effective anti-virals that mitigate how severe the cases get.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

If I were to guess, here is what I think will happen.

* We will eventually get a test to determine who currently has the virus which can be taken at home. This will help us isolate far better than we are able to do currently because we are not testing everyone. If a person knows they have it, they are 1000x more likely to do the right thing.

* We will also eventually get an antigen test to see who has already had it therefore not likely to get it again in the near term. Viruses do not all provide long term immunity, but almost all provide at least short term immunity.

* These two things together will allow America to get back to work without fear of infection. Even WDW could reopen.

But, before that happens (before they are available to anyone who wants to take the tests), we will likely try to return to work in waves, starting with the youngest workers who are willing to take the risk.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Americans will not heed any warnings. They are fleeing from heavily infected areas and spreading it even more quickly across the country....making it almost impossible to keep up much less get ahead of this monster.

I don't think it's fair to place the blame only on them. The college universities around the nation sent thousands upon thousands of their students home. We should assume that spread was brought to their home areas and to their families and to their loved ones and to their friends simply by that. I find that to be more reckless behavior than anything. How could you get ahead of the monster as you say when you didn't even have any care for those students being possible carriers, you didn't care who was in their homes as far as at risk, and you created far more risk and exposure as many of those students had to travel to get back to their home area.

We'll never know but it would have been interested if we would have seen more hotspots in college towns but less hotspots in certain other areas (not talking about NYC or Chicago, etc because they are densely populated urban areas). I've wondered how many students who came back to my metro could have helped spread it around.

Your point is valid though just think the other on a larger scale is worse.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I don't think it's fair to place the blame only on them. The college universities around the nation sent thousands upon thousands of their students home. We should assume that spread was brought to their home areas and to their families and to their loved ones and to their friends simply by that. I find that to be more reckless behavior than anything. How could you get ahead of the monster as you say when you didn't even have any care for those students being possible carriers, you didn't care who was in their homes as far as at risk, and you created far more risk and exposure as many of those students had to travel to get back to their home area.

We'll never know but it would have been interested if we would have seen more hotspots in college towns but less hotspots in certain other areas (not talking about NYC or Chicago, etc because they are densely populated urban areas). I've wondered how many students who came back to my metro could have helped spread it around.

Your point is valid though just think the other on a larger scale is worse.

The risk is much greater now. Too many are not staying home/sheltering in place/self isolating....more are infected. The death rate doubled in two days.

How do we slow this down?

 

[barkley]

If Im locked down in the Fall, that will be in the Pokey

naaaaaaaah-so long as it's a non violent crime b/c they are worried about the jails and prisons becoming petri dishes for cases. i told dh that if i ever desired to start a life of crime that now would be the time-no one is going to want to apprehend let alone jail a senior citizen whose constantly coughing (seasonal allergies-happens every year at this time).

there seems to be a huge downturn in the number of bogus irs call scammers lately-sounds like it could be a work from home opportunity

 

[barkley]

We'll never know but it would have been interested if we would have seen more hotspots in college towns but less hotspots in certain other areas (not talking about NYC or Chicago, etc because they are densely populated urban areas). I've wondered how many students who came back to my metro could have helped spread it around.

i truly believe that my area has had a slower occurrence of cases/lower death rate specifically because we have so many universities and they emptied them out and the bulk of the students went home a couple of weeks ago. i don't know that i agree with how it came down but i'm VERY glad they've decided to do only on-line classes for spring b/c the last thing we need is students who went to other areas coming back and the students that came back here going back to their universities-it's just spreading things around way too much.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The risk is much greater now.

I actually think that's debatable. I think if we wanted to get ahead of the curve the universities should have thought about that before sending their students home. Even back then we understood about spread. Because the spread rate is quite high with this virus and many people are walking around asymptomatic I think it presented much more of a risk back then prior to certain places getting out of control.

Too many are not staying home/sheltering in place/self isolating....more are infected.

Agreed..which is why it never made sense to me to send the students home. They didn't want to deal with enforcing, logistics or with the liability which is actually understandable but they had so much more control back then. The towns and cities with the universities could have made their own decisions on how to do things such as enforcing dine-in bans, number of people in gatherings, etc. And you would have been better able to contain. It was like pandoras box opened really. Once you let the students go you no longer have any handled on it.

How do we slow this down?

Test and isolate really. That's not feasible nor realistic for several reasons but we're only slowing the spread not eliminating it. Everyone should assume when they go to the grocery store that they could have it and be spreading it to someone else or that they themselves have it because they went to the grocery store and got it from someone else. In many of our minds though we find this to a be a necessary function to get food. But then we say 'how terrible it is for people to flee they are the reason it's spreading"..maybe and maybe they aren't. Not agreeing that the right thing to do is flee either but I'm going with the assumption that spread is occuring more frequently due to the essential outings than the others.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

i truly believe that my area has had a slower occurrence of cases/lower death rate specifically because we have so many universities and they emptied them out and the bulk of the students went home a couple of weeks ago. i don't know that i agree with how it came down but i'm VERY glad they've decided to do only on-line classes for spring b/c the last thing we need is students who went to other areas coming back and the students that came back here going back to their universities-it's just spreading things around way too much.

Yes but this is exactly what I mean though. It's like the "not in my backyard" thing. You think it's great that in your mind your area has less spread...that's nice but what about all the other communities out there that the students in your area come from?

If we want to get nitty gritty the many outweight the few. Your area might have experienced more spread...but your area may have allowed many other areas to not have as much spread or as quickly as could occur when you send tens of thousands of students home all within a short time frame with a virus that has an incubation period of up to 14 days.

There are many reasons IMO that spread happened around our nation. I don't believe for a second that the college students are the only reason but I do believe they can be a very relevant reason.

ETA: Sorry I did not mean to come out harsh if it sounded that way

 

[barkley]

Yes but this is exactly what I mean though. It's like the "not in my backyard" thing. You think it's great that in your mind your area has less spread...that's nice but what about all the other communities out there that the students in your area come from?

i was AGAINST the local universities closing and sending the students home. i thought it was a recipe for disaster when they were even contemplating it esp. since our state had the first u.s. deaths at the time but i was glad when they opted for it vs. their initial plan of just giving them a longer spring break and then having them come back b/c all the travel to and from their homes (as well as students that live here but attend in other regions of the state) would have created more potential exposure for all regions.

as far as caring about the other communities THAT WAS AND IS A CONSIDERATION b/c my 'backyard' houses one of the only two u.s. hospitals that is specifically equipped for and successfully treated the first u.s. cases back in february. my thought process is that the more successful our area is in keeping cases down the more availability our local hospital has to continue to provide care for people from across the u.s.

 

[TLSnell1981]

IMO This is much bigger than college students returning home. This is about cases in hot spots fleeing and driving across country.

 

[disneychrista]

Everyone should assume when they go to the grocery store that they could have it and be spreading it to someone else or that they themselves have it because they went to the grocery store and got it from someone else.

I assume everyone I come in contact with potentially has it or is a carrier. This is why I am staying home, except for going to work. I wish working from home was an option but it’s not.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

i was AGAINST the local universities closing and sending the students home. i thought it was a recipe for disaster when they were even contemplating it esp. since our state had the first u.s. deaths at the time but i was glad when they opted for it vs. their initial plan of just giving them a longer spring break and then having them come back b/c all the travel to and from their homes (as well as students that live here but attend in other regions of the state) would have created more potential exposure for all regions.

The places I'm talking about had their students mostly on campus and then kicked them out.

Some did have Spring Break and the students were able to get to their dorms to get needed things. That still probably led to exposure when they were in picking their stuff up.

I believe the thoughtprocess to the longer spring break was related to the 14 days incubation period. My alma mater was like that. It was Spring Break, then a week off, then online classes begin rather than in person. But you are correct that wouldn't have prevented spread from the dorms or whatnot but it helped more for those large classroom settings as social distancing could not have occurred to be online vs in person.

Unrealistic though it may be the better thing would to have tested the students before allowing movement either way. We didn't near enough tests and still don't but it would have been a better way to figure out who was positive, especially asymptomatic carriers, before letting them go.

Any of those students sent home their entire family within their household should have self-quarantined for 14 days (no leaving the house, no guests) but that wasn't really a consideration. Nor was households that had high risk family members.

as far as caring about the other communities THAT WAS AND IS A CONSIDERATION b/c my 'backyard' houses one of the only two u.s. hospitals that is specifically equipped for and successfully treated the first u.s. cases back in february. my thought process is that the more successful our area is in keeping cases down the more availability our local hospital has to continue to provide care for people from across the u.s.

That's still a "not in my backyard". You don't have to think of that as a big negative it's just a part of our human nature. So again you are considering your area..but what about the areas of out there where the students come from. You're sending them there when their area may not be able to adequately deal with a spread that was brought there. It was about keeping your area xyz..but what about the other areas which represent far more than just yours. I totally get the concern because that's where we're at with the hospitals now it's just that concern is throughout the whole U.S. these days.