I would say about 10 years out. At 10 years you still get the value of 10 vacations at Beach Club.
I'm of the opinion that Disney won't offer extensions at BCV and BWV. They will not want to keep on keeping on with the existing point values.
IMO it's there or close looked at objectively. In many ways it's actually as much or more than an all retail purchase.It's already reached that point for me. Being in our 30s, BCV is off the table for us even though it's tied for first place for me. I just can't justify half the amount of use compared to the newer ones. I will be curious about the Riviera and if they make a Beach Club "CCV" I would seriously consider buying direct which I'm sure The Brass realizes.
And Disney's hotel prices.That said, there are regular questions about people's odds of booking BCV without home resort. And as time passes, getting BCV outside of home resort will only get harder. Same with BWV. So it will come down to how much someone wants to stay at one of these resorts.