Wow...parks are near-empty on Thanksgiving Weekend!

Disney reprts a "record year" but everyone keeps saying there aren't crowds.

Unless you're suggesting that Disney is lying to investors and the SEC, we are compelled to take that information at face value. As I said, Disney has gone to great lengths to spread out the crowds. Free dining when slow. Massive crowds for Food & Wine. Very popular marathon events. Frequent sell-outs of MVMCP and MNSSHP.

The impact of the New Fantasyland is also worth noting. The additions may not be as stunningly impressive as many guests had hoped, but they are still people-eaters.

In that whole makeover, the only attractions lost were the unpopular Snow White's Scary Adventures and the low-capacity Toontown walkthroughs.

In their place we have Little Mermaid which posts 30+ minute waits even when the park is "slow", Storytime with Belle which often has a 60 minute wait, the Be Our Guest restaurant (no dining locations were closed so that's an addition) and doubling capacity on Dumbo.

Again, not the greatest attractions ever made but at any point in time there are hundreds or THOUSANDS of park guests riding or waiting in queues of those attractions instead of waiting for something else or clogging the pathways.
 
Unless you're suggesting that Disney is lying to investors and the SEC, we are compelled to take that information at face value. As I said, Disney has gone to great lengths to spread out the crowds. Free dining when slow. Massive crowds for Food & Wine. Very popular marathon events. Frequent sell-outs of MVMCP and MNSSHP.

The impact of the New Fantasyland is also worth noting. The additions may not be as stunningly impressive as many guests had hoped, but they are still people-eaters.

In that whole makeover, the only attractions lost were the unpopular Snow White's Scary Adventures and the low-capacity Toontown walkthroughs.

In their place we have Little Mermaid which posts 30+ minute waits even when the park is "slow", Storytime with Belle which often has a 60 minute wait, the Be Our Guest restaurant (no dining locations were closed so that's an addition) and doubling capacity on Dumbo.

Again, not the greatest attractions ever made but at any point in time there are hundreds or THOUSANDS of park guests riding or waiting in queues of those attractions instead of waiting for something else or clogging the pathways.

@tjkraz

You make a a lot of great points. Of course I'm not suggesting that Disney is "lying to investors and the SEC". But, it is also ridiculous that Disney wants to have 'light attendance" like it has had on major holiday weekends. Yes, they are making attempts to spread out attendance throughout the year...but to have "light crowds" at a non-discounted holiday period CANNOT be what they want. Beaches and resorts throughout the United states were packed at this time. Are you seriously suggesting that Disney wants or PLANS to have weak holiday attendance?

It's as if you are saying that Disney is more concentrated on drawing people in on free dining and resort discount periods instead of the premium rates they could get during the holidays.
 
But, it is also ridiculous that Disney wants to have 'light attendance" like it has had on major holiday weekends. Yes, they are making attempts to spread out attendance throughout the year...but to have "light crowds" at a non-discounted holiday period CANNOT be what they want. Beaches and resorts throughout the United states were packed at this time. Are you seriously suggesting that Disney wants or PLANS to have weak holiday attendance?

I really don't know how you expect to have any meaningful discussion with such ambiguities. Re-read your comments above. Disney has "light attendance" and other beaches and resorts were "packed."

How am I supposed to respond to that?

What are your qualifications (and criteria) for judging Disney to be "light"? Do you have data on all four theme parks...and waterparks....and Downtown Disney...for the same calendar day? How about comparisons to prior years?

How many other beaches & resorts did you sample before applying this universal "packed" status?

Look, I realize the above questions are impossible to answer. We don't have access to attendance data for Disney or any other destination. But your comments are littered with generalities and hyperbole. Unless Disney ultimately reports lower attendance, we're just two guys standing nose-to-nose screaming:

"Crowds were smaller!"
"No they weren't!"

Personally I'll take hard data over personal perception any day.

It's as if you are saying that Disney is more concentrated on drawing people in on free dining and resort discount periods instead of the premium rates they could get during the holidays.

No, I'm not saying that at all. But what I will point out that Disney knows exactly how its crowds are trending via advance hotel reservations. They aren't often caught off-guard by the crowds in their parks because they know how many will be staying on-site and can compare those reservations to prior years.

They begin analyzing such figures MONTHS in advance. Right now, someone at TWDC has data on how June '14 reservations as of 12/13/13 compare to June '13 reservations on 12/13/12 and June '12 reservations on 12/13/11.

If they were concerned about projected crowds for Thanksgiving, they would have introduced some incentive or discount to attract more people.

Another figure Disney often cites in its financial reports is average guest spending. Hotel / vacation package prices--net of discounts--play a big role in those average guest spending figures. And I don't recall them trending downward anytime in the last several years. Disney is consistently reporting higher average guest spending.

The periods in which Disney does NOT discount are as telling as the periods in which they DO discount.

Disney uses discounts during slow periods to draw business INTO those dates and AWAY from what are normally busier periods. When the parks are slammed to the gills, not all of those people are ABLE to spend money. When Pecos Bills has lines out the door and no tables available, Disney loses money because customers walk away. When people are standing in a 60 minute standby line for Haunted Mansion, they aren't buying churros or Mickey ear hats.

Disney charges higher prices during holiday periods because they know a certain volume of guests will still arrive and pay those prices. Some people will use prices as justification for visiting during another period--perhaps changing work vacation dates or having kids miss school. And while those discounting may lower those guests' average spending, they're filling hotel rooms and attraction stead which would have otherwise sat empty due to the low demand.

It may grab headlines on the DIS when the Magic Kingdom hits a phased closure. But in a practical sense, ANY closure means Disney is losing money. Don't you think Disney wants to convince those guests to visit in August or September--even at discounted prices--rather than simply being turned away on December 26th?
 
I will say that even on the days we felt parks were emptiest, headliner FP ran out early. I think that's due to FP+ and not crowd level.

Probably so, but even walking around at times it was crowded to me but we managed just fine. I have been there at other times of the year, May, August, September and October so I'm just comparing to that. It wasn't over crowded, but it was not empty. I have seen the parks empty before.

@wdwmom...was all of Epcot "packed" or just World Showcase? During your whole stay which parks seemed the most consistently empty?

How about your resort...did it seem booked up?

We went to Epcot twice that week. The first day was great! The crowds were very low but that Friday was the first day of the Christmas story tellers and the first CLP so the World Showcase was insane. The Future World was busy too but we managed with fast pass plus just fine.

During our stay the most manageable was magic kingdom and I believe that it's because they have more attractions to pull people in. Main Street was always busy though because they have multiple parades.

Hollywood studios was pretty busy, but it's a small park. I have never seen stand by lines for the Indiana Jones show before, but they sure had them. Again, we were fine using the fast pass plus. We also spent two days in this park. Both days were great.

We stayed at Colorado Springs Resort and it was not packed at all. We loved it!!
 
Disney reprts a "record year" but everyone keeps saying there aren't crowds. Fast Pass being used up early in the morning is only indicative of Magic Band holder double-dipping.

Only? could it be because there are less FP in reserve for the day of use?

Could the perceived crowd level be due to success of the new system to spread out crowds more evenly? And the creation of the extra park space that is FLE? So many complain about the quality of attractions in FLE, but fail to realize that it may improve the usability of the entire park, thus bettering the experience.
 
@Tjkraz

You make many salient points.

Awesome. You make me view these reports of "light attendance" during the Thanksgiving holiday in a new, balanced light. Still, I can't think that Disney wanted the turnout to be as low as is being reported. MouseChat's podacast of Disney vets expounding on how it just wasn't busy during Thanksgiving Week is certainly worthy of discussion, imo. Pictures posted on this site showing very empty walkways throughout all of the parks on Thanksgiving Day are also pertinent.

Prolific and infinitely interesting poster "lockedoutlogic" said he had never experienced such light crowds during the week before Thanksgiving during his LIFETIME of traveling.

Once again...in my humble opinion.
 
The new Fantasyland expansion cost about half a billion dollars. I believe that was the largest in-park expansion since the AK opened in '98.

Look I want new projects as much as the next person, but I don't see the "lack of reinvestment" angle.

Fantasyland expansion is a "repurposing" when the day is done...
When it's all done...you will see an expanded
Footprint with two new rides...an AA omnimover and a family coaster...and a restaurant.

That is a capital investment...but the final tag of $425 million is a steep reduction from the "close to a billion" early reports and they 763 proposed budget that they floated in '09.

So it's plain as day that they are "investing" on a tight line for PR...the reality is that 425 million is not alot of money for Disney... It just isn't. I know that sounds ridiculous....but study the numbers and then take a step
Back and make an honest assessment.

But it's not even the merits of fantasyland that I'm debating...
It's that we are now in a period of stagnation because the only thing being built in the parks was something proposed 5 years ago...

The next is 3 years away and when the blocks go up...it will have been...5 years since Inception.

This is a BS pattern that - frankly - too many people are falling for...
Five+ year cycles on "mini land" or expansions of existing areas with repurposing...
And occasionally...2008-9 for toy story mania and 2005 before that...the token ride addition.

Nobody doubts I'm sarcastic and pessimistic...least of whom me...but I truly believe that they are executing a preplanned strategy of thinning out every penny over time... It has been going on since animal
Kingdom...which also lines up with when attendance growth leveled off and resort
Construction almost ceased.

Say this for universal...and I still maintain they are not a threat to disrupt the dominance ( because all numbers say so... Funny how that works)... They are attacking... Full bore
Real investment that is INCLUDED in the ticket price. Disney is avoiding that every way they can think of...notably by suckering James Cameron in.

Kinda in football where one side is scrambling late going all out,
While the other is falling back and "playing the percentages" in prevent D.

The problem...and my frustration...is that Walt Disney was a Blitzer... And prevent d prevents you from winning.

The other problem is that we are being asked to pay more without pause to support this kinda shenanigans.
 
If memory serves we had another one of these "light attendance" posts regarding July 4th. A couple months later Disney reported record attendance over the fiscal year which ended September 30.

In recent years Disney has gone to great lengths to spread crowds out over the entire year. Special events like Food & Wine, Flower & Garden...promotions which discount packages during slower periods (free dining)...Marathons...Star Wars Weekends, etc.

Unless there's some downturn in overall attendance, this doesn't amount to anything. Low crowds are great for people who pay the premium holiday prices yet don't have to deal with oppressive wait times.

This is a great point and a POSITIVE for customers.

Peak attendance is TERRIBLE
Just miserable experiences. Always was and will be.

Calendar expansion is a good thing... Even for those of us who Loved "dead" months and now have more to deal With at those times...

It works for management to stabilize labor... And works for crowds to not be penalized for their travel weeks...as much.

But there is an evil profit angle...as always
The "holiday pricing" that quietly popped up in restaurants a few years back and has been amplified on hotel rack rates.
It seems that Disney is angling to charge even more for "special days" with your " special family" as opposed to the peasants...
Thinning out crowds on thanksgiving, 4th of July, Christmas, etc. will lead to higher rates than even now...because your paying for "premium" rides on small world... Because you're THAT special.
 
This is a great point and a POSITIVE for customers.

Peak attendance is TERRIBLE
Just miserable experiences. Always was and will be.

Calendar expansion is a good thing... Even for those of us who Loved "dead" months and now have more to deal With at those times...

It works for management to stabilize labor... And works for crowds to not be penalized for their travel weeks...as much.

But there is an evil profit angle...as always
The "holiday pricing" that quietly popped up in restaurants a few years back and has been amplified on hotel rack rates.
It seems that Disney is angling to charge even more for "special days" with your " special family" as opposed to the peasants...
Thinning out crowds on thanksgiving, 4th of July, Christmas, etc. will lead to higher rates than even now...because your paying for "premium" rides on small world... Because you're THAT special.

Yes...holiday periods are becoming a time for the elite "money-to-burn" crowd(at least those staying on property).
 
But there is an evil profit angle...as always
The "holiday pricing" that quietly popped up in restaurants a few years back and has been amplified on hotel rack rates.

Evil? Really?

Holiday pricing is neither new nor unique to Disney. It's pervasive in the travel and tourism industry, and exists as a reflection of the change holidays bring about in the demand curve for such services. That's just basic economics for businesses, but as highlighted, the impact it has on limiting consumption during these peak periods benefits the consumers, too. The pricing mechanism is mutually beneficial as such; hardly evil, IMO.

As it pertains to the discussion at hand, and going back to the points brought up by another post, Disney has a wealth of information regarding reservations and ticket sales at their disposal. The same tools they have for trying to drive attendance at non-peak times are available if they feel they need to drive more traffic in a lagging peak time. It stands to reason if they didn't utilize them that Disney felt comfortable with the projected attendance for the holiday week. The TouringPlans data - which for me is less subjective than anecdotes - seems to suggest comparable attendance to years past and indicative of a peak attendance period.
 
Evil? Really?

Holiday pricing is neither new nor unique to Disney. It's pervasive in the travel and tourism industry, and exists as a reflection of the change holidays bring about in the demand curve for such services. That's just basic economics for businesses, but as highlighted, the impact it has on limiting consumption during these peak periods benefits the consumers, too. The pricing mechanism is mutually beneficial as such; hardly evil, IMO.

As it pertains to the discussion at hand, and going back to the points brought up by another post, Disney has a wealth of information regarding reservations and ticket sales at their disposal. The same tools they have for trying to drive attendance at non-peak times are available if they feel they need to drive more traffic in a lagging peak time. It stands to reason if they didn't utilize them that Disney felt comfortable with the projected attendance for the holiday week. The TouringPlans data - which for me is less subjective than anecdotes - seems to suggest comparable attendance to years past and indicative of a peak attendance period.

tongue in cheek (it appears you are unfamiliar with the schtick)

your point that holiday pricing is not new is valid...as it is long documented and has been reflected with a "modest" increase in hotel rates for years at WDW...
however i'm not talking about that...i'm reasoning that tiered hotels and tiered food will ultimately lead to tiered admission...which is over the line. my opinion.

disney makes a big deal about how everybody is "treated equally" there...they used it to justify the elimination of childrens tickets...now i bet they blow that out of the water because theres a nickel to be had...

magic kingdom $100 on 12/15...$125 on 12/25?

that seem right to you?
could happen.

the other thing with "tiered" pricing is that they are arbitrarily charging more for the same things that they always offer...based on their warped take away from Econ 001. "it's christmas...liberty tree SHOULD be more...right?"

well...the "job creators" would tell you that supply and demand can support that and proves that.
BUT...econ is a social science in a vacuum...its why banks and companies hire MBAs and analysts...not economists.

There is an intrinsic if not mathematically supported number to perception, service, and consumer confidence...

so once again...i just dont like the potential path...that somehow looking for EVERY reason under the sun to charge for things that they have always charged for already is good business.

we'll see.
 
tongue in cheek (it appears you are unfamiliar with the schtick)

your point that holiday pricing is not new is valid...as it is long documented and has been reflected with a "modest" increase in hotel rates for years at WDW...
however i'm not talking about that...i'm reasoning that tiered hotels and tiered food will ultimately lead to tiered admission...which is over the line. my opinion.

You may be right.

In fact, I think some of the tiered food prices are relatively new. If memory serves, the higher seasonal Dining Plan rates were just introduced around 2010.

Discounts like TIW have long been blacked-out during peak seasons. Not sure about changing actual menu prices. Though, as more and more restaurants get the digital menu boards, it's much easier to modify pricing on-the-fly.
 
however i'm not talking about that...i'm reasoning that tiered hotels and tiered food will ultimately lead to tiered admission...which is over the line. my opinion.
. . . .
magic kingdom $100 on 12/15...$125 on 12/25?

that seem right to you?
could happen.

It seems fine with me; that's already the reality for holiday travelers (gas, airfare, hotels) -- particularly on-site Disney guests -- if you view the cost of a day in the aggregate. And I believe Disney already implements this on a smaller scale with event pricing for the MNSSHP and MVMCP (weekday vs. weekend).

the other thing with "tiered" pricing is that they are arbitrarily charging more for the same things that they always offer...based on their warped take away from Econ 001. "it's christmas...liberty tree SHOULD be more...right?"

It isn't arbitrary, though. It's a peak season, and it exists as such regardless of whether Disney calls it that or by any other name. All things being equal, greater demand (higher attendance) for a limited supply (fixed attractions) will lead to higher prices for a good/service or a shortage of the good/service. Closing the gates because a park reaches max capacity and having wait times in the hours rather than minutes exemplifies the latter.

so once again...i just dont like the potential path...that somehow looking for EVERY reason under the sun to charge for things that they have always charged for already is good business.

Not everyone has to like the idea, but I think most people who take that view look only at what they see directly in the price increase. I'd suggest keeping in mind that the result of such pricing mechanisms isn't only more revenue and profit for the company, though; it can also positively impact the shortages that occur during peak times and allow for more discounts and special offers during non-peak times (among other things).
 

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