Another Direct vs Resale Thread...

[Erik DeShane]

First, I want to thank all of the DVC veterans for reading and commenting -- I have completely talked this to death with my better half and she is ready for me to just DO IT ALREADY!

We've answered the most important question of where we absolutely want to stay -- Wilderness lodge.

We're not impressed with BRV and when we stayed at Wilderness Lodge last month I was blown away by the resort, the room, the view of the courtyard, the grounds, etc. and prefer the courtyard view of CCV and being in the main lodge itself. I will never be disappointed if I "have to stay" at Wilderness lodge once or twice a year -- these are what's known as First World Problems as far as I am concerned.

The plan is to buy in at 100 points and add more in the resale market at CCV or BLT/ POLY down the road as our family grows.

I'm no mathematician, but here goes... please correct or make adjustments to my math as you see fit.

Cost of points for CCV are currently selling at $188/pt direct and $160/pt resale (avg. asking price) and there are very few resale contracts available that I have been able to find on the DVC resale search engines.

The direct purchase offer includes 2018 points -- rented out at $14.50/pt x 100pts = $1,450 additional savings

100pts x $188 = $18,800 - $1,450 (rented 2018 points) = $17,350
100pts x $160 = $16,000

Total difference is $1,350 before closing costs which appear to be a negligible difference, around 1% higher to buy direct and obviously the yearly dues are the same.

Purchasing annual passes instead of 7-14 days of Park Hopper passes from a discount vendor like undercovertourist will save a MINIMUM of $200 per pass if we purchase the Platinum Pass.

$1,350 (direct vs resale difference) / $200 (minimum annual pass savings) = 6.75 or 7 total pass purchases to break even on the difference between the Direct vs Resale cost of CCV.

I know I should not bank on the perks remaining, but the likelihood of the Gold or platinum Pass remaining in existence for the next 5-10 years seems likely IMHO. And the discounts on merch and meals will decrease this break even time frame down even more.

While I would prefer to purchase resale and save as much as possible off the direct price, my rough math tells me that the perks of Direct purchase are actually worth it in the specific case of CCV.

Also, I have seen suggestions of buying 75-100 in the resale market and adding 25 Direct -- not sure that this is still an option, as it appears that 75 is now the minimum purchase to receive full DVC member benefits -- Correct?

 

[Ben E N]

2 things you are assuming that may not end up happening.
1. It is very hard to rent out exactly 100 points. You will most likely have to rent out more than that, leaving you point shy before your first stay.
2. You may have a hard time getting a room at many times of the year using only 100 points. There are many buyers of CCV who bought low point contracts with the intention of only staying in studios, and there just aren't that many studios in the resort to match all of that demand at busy times of the year.

 

[CMNJ]

First, I want to thank all of the DVC veterans for reading and commenting -- I have completely talked this to death with my better half and she is ready for me to just DO IT ALREADY!

We've answered the most important question of where we absolutely want to stay -- Wilderness lodge.

We're not impressed with BRV and when we stayed at Wilderness Lodge last month I was blown away by the resort, the room, the view of the courtyard, the grounds, etc. and prefer the courtyard view of CCV and being in the main lodge itself. I will never be disappointed if I "have to stay" at Wilderness lodge once or twice a year -- these are what's known as First World Problems as far as I am concerned.

The plan is to buy in at 100 points and add more in the resale market at CCV or BLT/ POLY down the road as our family grows.

I'm no mathematician, but here goes... please correct or make adjustments to my math as you see fit.

Cost of points for CCV are currently selling at $188/pt direct and $160/pt resale (avg. asking price) and there are very few resale contracts available that I have been able to find on the DVC resale search engines.

The direct purchase offer includes 2018 points -- rented out at $14.50/pt x 100pts = $1,450 additional savings

100pts x $188 = $18,800 - $1,450 (rented 2018 points) = $17,350
100pts x $160 = $16,000

Total difference is $1,350 before closing costs which appear to be a negligible difference, around 1% higher to buy direct and obviously the yearly dues are the same.

Purchasing annual passes instead of 7-14 days of Park Hopper passes from a discount vendor like undercovertourist will save a MINIMUM of $200 per pass if we purchase the Platinum Pass.

$1,350 (direct vs resale difference) / $200 (minimum annual pass savings) = 6.75 or 7 total pass purchases to break even on the difference between the Direct vs Resale cost of CCV.

I know I should not bank on the perks remaining, but the likelihood of the Gold or platinum Pass remaining in existence for the next 5-10 years seems likely IMHO. And the discounts on merch and meals will decrease this break even time frame down even more.

While I would prefer to purchase resale and save as much as possible off the direct price, my rough math tells me that the perks of Direct purchase are actually worth it in the specific case of CCV.

Also, I have seen suggestions of buying 75-100 in the resale market and adding 25 Direct -- not sure that this is still an option, as it appears that 75 is now the minimum purchase to receive full DVC member benefits -- Correct?

Yes them minimum direct ownership to qualify for perks is now 75 points. If you are set on staying at CCV and having that as your home resort then at this point I would definitely consider direct. While $1350 is nothing to sneeze at if you would be buying multiple AP in the near future it may be a good option. At this point it seems Disney is really trying to drive buyers to direct and they keep instituting new rules to discourage resales over direct. Not being able to book into new resorts, no AP discounts (or access to the gold AP), no shopping/dining discounts (though if you buy an AP it includes those), access to moonlight magic/special events, etc. I do agree with the previous poster though that studios seem difficult to obtain at CCV due to the low number of points so many are buying and the point intensive cabins they have sold. Basically they are selling too many people only enough points to be be able to stay in studios but there aren’t all that many studios there. Also keep in mind that though Disney rescinded the 2020 point chart they very likely might bump up the costs of studios (and 1 BR) in 2021. Will 100 points be enough to cover your desired stays? I’d look at the rescinded point charts to get an idea.

 

[Erik DeShane]

Yes them minimum direct ownership to qualify for perks is now 75 points. If you are set on staying at CCV and having that as your home resort then at this point I would definitely consider direct. While $1350 is nothing to sneeze at if you would be buying multiple AP in the near future it may be a good option. At this point it seems Disney is really trying to drive buyers to direct and they keep instituting new rules to discourage resales over direct. Not being able to book into new resorts, no AP discounts (or access to the gold AP), no shopping/dining discounts (though if you buy an AP it includes those), access to moonlight magic/special events, etc. I do agree with the previous poster though that studios seem difficult to obtain at CCV due to the low number of points so many are buying and the point intensive cabins they have sold. Basically they are selling too many people only enough points to be be able to stay in studios but there aren’t all that many studios there. Also keep in mind that though Disney rescinded the 2020 point chart they very likely might bump up the costs of studios (and 1 BR) in 2021. Will 100 points be enough to cover your desired stays? I’d look at the rescinded point charts to get an idea.

Good advice.
My better half is an Iraq/ Afghanistan veteran and the crowds of peak season are a no-go for her anxiety. We are decidedly an off-season/ adventure-season couple -- specifically January after the marathon and around MLK day.

The minimum stay for us would be a 6 night during adventure season which is now 90pts for a studio but could increase to 96 -102 at (+1 / +2) increased points cost.

The outlier(s) seems like it would be a 6 night stay at BLT (theme park) / POLY (lake) studios at an increased points level of 22/night; 6 x 22 = 132pt
or a 13 night stay at CCV at 17pts/night (+2 of current level) 13 x 17= 222, which would clearly require me to miss a year by banking or borrowing, which I'm OK with considering 13 nights in WDW.

You have helped me to see that the 100pts is clearly a minimum and maybe I need to jump to the next available level to maintain a minimum annual vacation to WDW or I could go ahead with my plan to keep my eye out and make offers on 50/75pt CCV contracts on the resale market as they become more available over the next year or two.

seems like the advice I read most often is "buy where you want to stay" and "I wish I had bought a little more at my initial purchase"

 

[disneynutz]

Select the best UY for your vacation patterns.
Buy where you love to stay.
Book at 11 months.
Buy resale if you can.
If you buy additional contracts, keep the same UY and names on deeds.
After buying resale, if you intend to buy a small direct contract for the perks, buy at the same resort.
DVD/DVC marketing can change the perks at any time.
Perks and policies tend to change when management changes and DVD/DVC upper management just changed.
Expect to spend more on Disney vacations after you buy DVC.

Bill

 

[Wakey]

Be very wary of CCV if you wish to stop in peak times- you may have to walk not only studios but 1 beds. Unheard of- it is because of so many points in those cabins.

 

[Erik DeShane]

Select the best UY for your vacation patterns.
Buy where you love to stay.
Book at 11 months.
Buy resale if you can.
If you buy additional contracts, keep the same UY and names on deeds.
After buying resale, if you intend to buy a small direct contract for the perks, buy at the same resort.
DVD/DVC marketing can change the perks at any time.
Perks and policies tend to change when management changes and DVD/DVC upper management just changed.
Expect to spend more on Disney vacations after you buy DVC.

Bill

Bill -- thank you
I have read your advice post for others in my research of disboards

Select the best UY for your vacation patterns. -- September or October, considering we will take 90%+ of our vacations in mid-January; Sept is currently being offered by DVC direct sale.
Buy where you love to stay. -- Wilderness lodge, but specifically the lodge and not BRV
Book at 11 months. We are planners and get a kick out of knowing that we have our vacation locked in a year in advance, this will be no problem.
Buy resale if you can. -- Agree, but it doesn't seem cost effective considering the particular situation of CCV and 2018 points incentives as outlined above in my post.
If you buy additional contracts, keep the same UY and names on deeds. -- understood
After buying resale, if you intend to buy a small direct contract for the perks, buy at the same resort. -- understood
DVD/DVC marketing can change the perks at any time. -- understood
Perks and policies tend to change when management changes and DVD/DVC upper management just changed. -- understood
Expect to spend more on Disney vacations after you buy DVC. -- This is part of my calculus for the "perks" of full membership; Merch. discounts = $50-$100/ visit & dining discounts = $100-$200/visit. Considering the annual pass discount it appears that we could save a minimum of $500-600 on the first DVC visit planned already for Jan 2021 (13 nights).... until they change the rules of the game. We will buy our annual passes in February of 2020 to ensure we get at least one discount for tickets

 

[Deb & Bill]

Bill -- thank you
I have read your advice post for others in my research of disboards

Select the best UY for your vacation patterns. -- September or October, considering we will take 90%+ of our vacations in mid-January; Sept is currently being offered by DVC direct sale.
Buy where you love to stay. -- Wilderness lodge, but specifically the lodge and not BRV
Book at 11 months. We are planners and get a kick out of knowing that we have our vacation locked in a year in advance, this will be no problem.
Buy resale if you can. -- Agree, but it doesn't seem cost effective considering the particular situation of CCV and 2018 points incentives as outlined above in my post.
If you buy additional contracts, keep the same UY and names on deeds. -- understood
After buying resale, if you intend to buy a small direct contract for the perks, buy at the same resort. -- understood
DVD/DVC marketing can change the perks at any time. -- understood
Perks and policies tend to change when management changes and DVD/DVC upper management just changed. -- understood
Expect to spend more on Disney vacations after you buy DVC. -- This is part of my calculus for the "perks" of full membership; Merch. discounts = $50-$100/ visit & dining discounts = $100-$200/visit. Considering the annual pass discount it appears that we could save a minimum of $500-600 on the first DVC visit planned already for Jan 2021 (13 nights).... until they change the rules of the game. We will buy our annual passes in February of 2020 to ensure we get at least one discount for tickets

DVC could discontinue the AP discount tomorrow if they wanted and AP prices could increase twice before you purchase even one. Understand, too, that CCV is not the entire lodge. It is only the one wing. Rooms there are smaller than BRV because they are just renovated hotel rooms, smaller hotel rooms at that. If you mostly vacation in January, why not get a Dec UY? It gives you even more time to reschedule should you need to cancel a Jan trip.

 

[crvetter]

Bill -- thank you
I have read your advice post for others in my research of disboards

Select the best UY for your vacation patterns. -- September or October, considering we will take 90%+ of our vacations in mid-January; Sept is currently being offered by DVC direct sale.
Buy where you love to stay. -- Wilderness lodge, but specifically the lodge and not BRV
Book at 11 months. We are planners and get a kick out of knowing that we have our vacation locked in a year in advance, this will be no problem.
Buy resale if you can. -- Agree, but it doesn't seem cost effective considering the particular situation of CCV and 2018 points incentives as outlined above in my post.
If you buy additional contracts, keep the same UY and names on deeds. -- understood
After buying resale, if you intend to buy a small direct contract for the perks, buy at the same resort. -- understood
DVD/DVC marketing can change the perks at any time. -- understood
Perks and policies tend to change when management changes and DVD/DVC upper management just changed. -- understood
Expect to spend more on Disney vacations after you buy DVC. -- This is part of my calculus for the "perks" of full membership; Merch. discounts = $50-$100/ visit & dining discounts = $100-$200/visit. Considering the annual pass discount it appears that we could save a minimum of $500-600 on the first DVC visit planned already for Jan 2021 (13 nights).... until they change the rules of the game. We will buy our annual passes in February of 2020 to ensure we get at least one discount for tickets

As the prior poster said there are differences in size. Google “DVC Room Inventory” for good explanations (link isn’t allowed) in size and sleeping arrangements. CCV is on the smaller size yes. The average is around 355 for studios whereas CCV is at 338. So not a dramatic size difference (BRV is 356) what is bigger, IMO, is studios and 1 beds only sleep 4. Likely that DVC intends to keep it that way and not change the sleeping arrangements like they did with BRV/BCV/BWV. So keep in mind future needs.

 

[CarolMN]

I think you are a good candidate to buy 75 direct at CCV, because you want the Membership Extras and will utilize the AP discount. The plan to add on later via resale is a good one and should be less expensive than buying all the points direct. I would encourage you to make sure your add-on is for the same use year as your direct contract and that you title it exactly the same as the direct contract. This will make using your points a lot easier than if you end up with two Membership numbers.

Unless you plan to spend a lot of time at the waterparks, consider the DVC GOLD pass rather than the Platinum or Platinum Plus passes. It may be more cost effective to buy the Gold pass (since you won't be traveling during the black out periods) and pay for the waterpark separately as you visit. There are DVC & AP discounts on the daily waterpark tickets.

I do not think you will have trouble booking a studio for a mid-January stay at 11 months. Most of the angst over booking CCV studios (and the need to walk a studio reservation) is for Thanksgiving through New Year's.

Good luck - hope to welcome you home, soon.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

That said, and I called this out on a different thread, about half of early January 2020 is already sold-out in CCV studios. I don't think the final declaration (it's like 4 studios) is going to make a dent in that pattern.

 

[Erik DeShane]

That said, and I called this out on a different thread, about half of early January 2020 is already sold-out in CCV studios. I don't think the final declaration (it's like 4 studios) is going to make a dent in that pattern.

Hoping that this is a slight aberration. Could have something to do witht the new Star Wars land in Hollywood Studios. Likely going to create peak levels at the "adventure season". It's opening in late fall or early winter will draw people from around the world that would not normally come to Disney world... Fingers crossed

 

[Ben E N]

Hoping that this is a slight aberration. Could have something to do witht the new Star Wars land in Hollywood Studios. Likely going to create peak levels at the "adventure season". It's opening in late fall or early winter will draw people from around the world that would not normally come to Disney world... Fingers crossed

You do need to take into consideration that Disney allowed a good amount of the contracts sold at that resort to be 50 and 75 point ones, though, and that the cabins are points monsters. If the majority of people bought hoping to get studios, and those are not available, but that's all people can afford, then they are stuck out in the cold and grasping for rooms elsewhere at 7 months.
It is possible next January is an aberration, but it is possible it is the start of a trend due to so many of these types of contracts being sold.

 

[CarolMN]

Also possible that since CCV is new, many of the buyers want to stay there for their first few trips. Some of them will want to try other resorts after that and some will be banking and borrowing to go every other year.

I don't think January will fill up so quickly after Marathon weekend. Speed of booking slows down after that until Presidents week and the Princess Marathon.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You do need to take into consideration that Disney allowed a good amount of the contracts sold at that resort to be 50 and 75 point ones, though, and that the cabins are points monsters. If the majority of people bought hoping to get studios, and those are not available, but that's all people can afford, then they are stuck out in the cold and grasping for rooms elsewhere at 7 months.
It is possible next January is an aberration, but it is possible it is the start of a trend due to so many of these types of contracts being sold.

I agree with this. That, or aggressive walking are the only reasons I can come up with for late-week (1/23) already being gone. The prior weekend, the obvious factor is MLK Day, but the Tuesday+ after MLK Day is not typically a slug fest, and I am seeing availability almost everywhere else save a few of the usual suspects that veterans can name top-of-head.

I mean, once you clear Marathon, even over MLK Weekend, VGF is clear sailing right now, BCV is fine, can even get 3 day stretches in BLT Standard. But CCV is missing the weekend between marathon and MLK, and some weekdays.

 

[drusba]

Watching last year, CCV was definitely developing studio issues even during the low to moderate demand season from mid-Jan to late Sep by disappearing often during the 11 month window and it is getting worse this year. One should not assume it is just some Star Wars issue, particularly since it was doing it last year. What CCV has is the Poly bungalow problem in spades. At Poly you have excess demand for studios because most of those points for the 20 bungalows were sold to persons who reserve only studios, including because the point purchase requirement was only 100 and sometimes as low as 50. But Poly has a buffer -- 360 studios to absorb that excess demand -- and thus it has thus far remained open until 7 months out for the low to moderate season, although not for the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan.

CCV does not have those 360 studios but only a possible 78 studios (42 dedicated, the rest part of 2BR lock-offs) to absorb any excess studio demand caused by the sale of the cabins, and has had a mostly lower than 100 point minimum, while selling at a higher price than Poly did. What may happen is that by the time CCV sells out, it may have serious studio reservation problems, including even being able to get them at exactly 11 months out during at least a significant part of the high demand season.

 

[crvetter]

Watching last year, CCV was definitely developing studio issues even during the low to moderate demand season from mid-Jan to late Sep by disappearing often during the 11 month window and it is getting worse this year. One should not assume it is just some Star Wars issue, particularly since it was doing it last year. What CCV has is the Poly bungalow problem in spades. At Poly you have excess demand for studios because most of those points for the 20 bungalows were sold to persons who reserve only studios, including because the point purchase requirement was only 100 and sometimes as low as 50. But Poly has a buffer -- 360 studios to absorb that excess demand -- and thus it has thus far remained open until 7 months out for the low to moderate season, although not for the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan.

CCV does not have those 360 studios but only a possible 78 studios (42 dedicated, the rest part of 2BR lock-offs) to absorb any excess studio demand caused by the sale of the cabins, and has had a mostly lower than 100 point minimum, while selling at a higher price than Poly did. What may happen is that by the time CCV sells out, it may have serious studio reservation problems, including even being able to get them at exactly 11 months out during at least a significant part of the high demand season.

While I agree with the issues you present; however, some other things to consider is that last year January-March 2018 bookings only less than 1/4 of the eligible studios (dedicated and lockoff) were declared only with close to 40% of the points declared. By July 2018 they were to almost half of the studios with around half the points declared. Then in September they were still around half the studios with 3/4 of the points. It wasn’t until the decelerations in December 2018 that almost all the remaining studios were declared. DVC holding off declaring the studios amplified the availability issues last year.

Also as far as buffer CCV has the lockoff premium which does eat some of those cabin points but that isnt a significant amount. PVB doesn’t have that.

Also my understanding from those that track the sales (DVCNews) that the average contract at Copper Creek is higher points (~150) vs Polynesian (~130). This is even more of a spread when you consider the point costs are much less than Polynesian so some people seem to be buying Copper Creek for larger types (likely 1/2 beds). By not figuring out how to fit 5 in a studio or 1 bedroom was good for Copper Creek because it forced bigger contracts for those buying with 5+ in a family.

So the true impact of the issues at copper creek will be known after about a year of sales stopping, IMO. But I do expect studios to be the quickest to go (just as all); though, in slow DVC times we could see that the rooms may be walked less. And perhaps not booked at 8 AM but I still would always suggest to book right at 8.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If the issue were Galaxy's Edge, there should be other resorts with similar unavailable nights, especially places like BCV and VGF. And both can be booked for dates that CCV is already full, late January 2020. Now, sure, we can all theorize that new CCV owners are more excited about GE, but... seems like a stretchy theory.

 

[crvetter]

If the issue were Galaxy's Edge, there should be other resorts with similar unavailable nights, especially places like BCV and VGF. And both can be booked for dates that CCV is already full, late January 2020. Now, sure, we can all theorize that new CCV owners are more excited about GE, but... seems like a stretchy theory.

I would agree I think it’s mostly because of studio demand but also new owners excited to use their points. Also because people were buying with 2018 points that Likely were banked people are looking to rent or use them themselves.

 

[Erik DeShane]

Watching last year, CCV was definitely developing studio issues even during the low to moderate demand season from mid-Jan to late Sep by disappearing often during the 11 month window and it is getting worse this year. One should not assume it is just some Star Wars issue, particularly since it was doing it last year. What CCV has is the Poly bungalow problem in spades. At Poly you have excess demand for studios because most of those points for the 20 bungalows were sold to persons who reserve only studios, including because the point purchase requirement was only 100 and sometimes as low as 50. But Poly has a buffer -- 360 studios to absorb that excess demand -- and thus it has thus far remained open until 7 months out for the low to moderate season, although not for the high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan.

CCV does not have those 360 studios but only a possible 78 studios (42 dedicated, the rest part of 2BR lock-offs) to absorb any excess studio demand caused by the sale of the cabins, and has had a mostly lower than 100 point minimum, while selling at a higher price than Poly did. What may happen is that by the time CCV sells out, it may have serious studio reservation problems, including even being able to get them at exactly 11 months out during at least a significant part of the high demand season.

What about the "free" 2018 points. You have a lot of people who need to use it or lose it. We are currently being offered 2018 points that we can bank (April 31, 2019), use (by Sept 1, 2019) or rent. Seems like yet another pretty significant factor. Now combine everything together-- the honeymoon period for new owners, Star Wars Galaxy's Edge, and "free" 2018 points that must be used or lost as the weeks roll on and then compound these issues with the low amount of studios and you have the perfect storm for CCV studio occupancy in late 2019- 2020.