Question for the AmEx experts out there. Hubby's ancient Green card is coming up for renewal next month. He confirmed it's at the old $55 AF and between that and only being offered $100 for a referral bonus rather than MR points like everyone else, it's pretty certain he's got a discontinued version of that card. It has no benefits to really speak of and since it's discontinued it won't automatically get the refresh if they roll it out. Do you think after we cancel it he'd be eligible for the bonus on the "new" Green card? If it rolls out with the
Amazon Prime membership included we'd consider it, but mostly for whatever bonus they offer so if he's not eligible we'd wait it out until we'd "need" it.
Circling back on this, anyone have any thoughts for me?
Oh, see, when you were asking the "Amex experts," there's no way you could've meant me. But I'll chime in anyway.
Since DoC posted the rumor that the
Amex Green might be getting a refresh over a month ago, we haven't heard any new news. I'm not saying DoC is wrong, but the refresh may be further down the pipeline. I seem to recall he predicted changes to the BGR around the same time he picked up on changes to the PRG, but those took another month after the refresh on the personal Gold. So there's no telling the timeline on these rumored changes -- a month? half a year?
Meanwhile, your DH's Green is up for renewal next month. With Amex, you have 30 days from the date of the statement on which the AF is billed to close the card for a full refund. After that, there's no refund. That gives you guys a little time to see if there are any worthwhile changes to the Green in the next month (or two?), and if so whether DH's card is upgraded to the new benefits.
If there isn't a refresh by the time you need to cancel the card for a full refund, would you mind closing an old card and eventually taking a hit on DH's AAoA?
If DH cancels his Green, I don't think he'd be eligible for a bonus on another Green. My thought is, DH is grandfathered into the old $55 fee, but the card is still the same product as the current Green, and I think Amex would consider DH's card to be the same product as a refreshed Green. Amex treats the PRG as the same product as the refreshed Gold, and the BGR as the same product as the refreshed Biz Gold. Whether DH's Green will be automatically upgraded to any refreshed benefits is unclear. Because, as you know, the PRG was automatically upgraded to the Gold's new benefits, but the BGR was not upgraded to the Biz Gold benefits. I wonder if it has to do with one being a consumer card vs. the other being a business card. If I had to guess, DH's Green would be automatically upgraded to any new benefits, but I don't know if his annual fee would then go up at some point.
If DH cancels his Green, he may not get a bonus on another Green, but could you guys get a referral bonus? The best SUB for the Green is via incognito for 25k MR. I think the best SUB when using a referral link is 15k MR points. However, a referral from an Amex Gold or BBP is worth 10k MR; Platinum links are worth 15k MR; and BGR/Biz Gold links are worth 20k MR. Since there's some doubt whether DH's Green would be considered the same product as a refreshed Green, I'd try applying anyway to see if he gets the pop up that says he's ineligible for the bonus because he has or has had the same card.
Canceling the Green potentially means giving up the grandfathered $55 fee. However, we don't know if Amex would raise that fee anyway if they automatically upgrade DH's card benefits upon a refresh. A new Green will come with a higher fee -- $95 per year, with the first year waived. However, DoC's rumor is the refreshed Green might include Amazon Prime, which is $119, and he thinks the AF will be raised to at least that. If that happens, there might be a small window, like with the PRG and BGR, to apply under the current AF terms and lock those in for the next two years, so $0 in Y1 and $95 in Y2 for the Green, then raised to whatever is the increased AF in Y3. But if DoC is right, then the refreshed Green would pay for itself with the AF covering the cost of Amazon Prime.
TL;DR: I don't know. There are too many uncertainties. I gamed out some of the possibilities, but who knows if my assumptions are wrong, what might actually happen and when.