I am somewhat perplexed by how some of the supposedly more educated owners here (vs. the pixie-dusted park goers on a tour) are diving head first as soon as it goes on sale.
As one of the more vocal opponents of the reallocation/new restrictions and how that represented the ability and willingness on Disney’s part to make money at the expense of the membership, I’m not going to lie; when the opportunity to buy into DRR became a reality, I was back to my pre-Jan19-restrictions/pre-retracted-reallocation self. As ELMC astutely put it, it became a head vs. heart thing. And my heart is so close to having the upper hand.
Disney, in every way, taps into the joy center part of my brain and has since I first went to
Disneyland as a wide eyed six-year-old. Today, I buy the $15 flashing balloon within a balloon because I see those same wide-eyes on my six-year-old. There is a joy there that is fun to give in to (Amex bill hangover notwithstanding).
So when that video of the model room tour was posted, and I had a glimpse of the nice new bathroom, the VGF-esque finishings, that neato Murphy bed, my family was suddenly riding in a gondola to a soundtrack of the Turtles’ “So Happy Together.” I had a serious conversation with my wife about buying in. She didn’t care about any of the financial logistics, or the minutiae of resale risks, she just loved the idea of staying at the new resort which “looks great!” We both work really hard and can afford it, so why not?
Hook. Line. Sinker.
But the sobering thing for me was the point chart (even more so than the dues, which I agree will be par for the course in a couple of years). We’ve seen that Disney is prepared to use the
point charts to generate capital at the expense of the broader membership. It isn’t enough that we buy in, pay dues, now the increased breakage “to address membership demand” through reallocation is in play.
Disney showed its hand with the retracted reallocation. As soon as the point charts post-selling out became changeable, PVB studio costs went up to “balance demand.” Presently CCV studios can’t be priced too aggressively against BRV studios when selling points direct on the same resort property, so the Cabins sit around available a few weeks out, most times of the year, and studios are walked year round. You can guess what I think will happen after CCV sells out.
As I look at DRR charts more carefully. I see that pattern continuing. 1BRs are priced
more than twice the cost of studios, and in some sesasons 1BRs are only 23% less than a 2BR. This suggests to me that the point chart is set up beautifully for DVD to tee off of it, and then for DVCMC to “address membership demands” once it is sold out. While there is some insulation with dedicated units, studios will go up in price, as they will be really high in demand, offset perhaps by a slight decrease in GVs to address the dedicated units.
1BRs are a terrible “value” and as it is most owners will buy small, and DVCers as a whole are frugal with points, studios (which again sleeps 5) will book up quickly, creating an inordinate supply of 1BRs (from breaking up a lockoff), and this will create an imbalance that will conveniently be addressed post-sell-out courtesy of a member-centric reallocation.
I don’t see Disney management doing anything in the membership’s best interest without there being a benefit to the bottom line. I think DRR is an experiment of how far they can leverage that acces to the joy center of my brain. For now, I’ve decided not to buy in because I don’t want to be party to Disney continuing down that path.
Am I missing out on buying in at the ground level to a resort I might actually like and hold onto for 50 years? Maybe? Probably. But I owe it to my soapbox to sit this one out for now*.
*Bing reserves the right to be a complete hypocrite and buy in secret should the economy take a dive and free cruises are back on the table.