Maybe you guys are looking at the same data but different time periods? It looks like dmurf is looking at the 1st 4 months of CCV sales vs. the 1st 4 months of RIV sales. Pete are you just looking at fiscal year vs. prior fiscal year? That may be why you all are coming to different conclusions.
So yes - I am trying to look at year over year. There are so many variables in DVC including resort being sold, resale prices, etc, and seasonal sales. To remove seasonal sales I wanted to compare the same month from one year to the next.
So to repeat - here is a 3-year comparison for August and September sales.
Remember, in Aug/Sept 2017 - DVC was still selling both Poly and CCV as new resorts, and Poly was still dominating sales, in Aug/Sept 2018 it was CCV only, and in Aug/Sept it was Riviera only (I didn't count CCV at this point because they had already raised the point price to $210 for that resort and were not focusing on sales there. )
Also understand I am just comparing NEW resort points sold versus OLD resort points sold, where NEW means the resort as listed above.
August 2017 203,204 pts sold, 174,229 pts at NEW resorts (86% NEW)
August 2018 161,681 pts sold, 134,373 pts at NEW resorts (79% NEW)
August 2019 174,899 pts sold, 104,758 pts at NEW resorts (60% NEW)
September 2017 187,012 pts sold, 159,666 pts at NEW resorts (85% NEW)
September 2018 156,931 pts sold, 129,331 pts at NEW resorts (82% NEW)
September 2019 149,900 pts sold, 102,859 pts at NEW resorts (68% NEW)
So MY point is that sales are fairly steady year over year, but the amount of sales from NEW resorts are down significantly. If you look back historically 80-85% from NEW sales is the more typical number, numbers in the sixties are unheard of.
And remember this also, in 2017, they had not yet raised direct point prices so drastically as they are now. In other words, in 2017, it was still CHEAPER to buy resorts like Boardwalk and BLT than it was to buy Poly or CCV, yet people were more likely to buy Poly/CCV. So the choice to buy Riviera is a significantly better value relative to older resorts as compared to what Poly/CCV were two years ago, yet direct sales of the resort are much softer.
So - I would be happy to hear other opinions for why direct sales % of the NEW Riviera resort is down so significantly relative to older resorts and I only see THREE possible reasons for this:
(1) Riviera sales are being hurt by having the resort not open so people are hesitant to buy an unknown quantity.
(2) Riviera sales are being hurt by having a resale restriction that does not affect the older resorts.
(3) Riviera sales are being hurt by the design/theme/location/
point charts of the resort.
Can anyone think of another reason for this? I honestly doubt that #3 is truly the problem - but I included it anyways.
Reason #1 will be eliminated in just over a month - which will leave the other two. Reason #3 cannot be changed - but Reason #2 could be.
Again - I am not disparaging owners at Riviera here - I am just trying to look at the reality of sales.