If the closure is extended beyond 3/31, when do you think it will be announced?

[zskid00]

This is clearly a problem and one we need to take swift action to prevent from getting out of control, but let's remember that the CDC has estimated that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 and Feb. 1, 2020 in the U.S. alone, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. And we have a vaccine for influenza, and this happens every year, and we don't stop anything for it.

 

[Krandor]

This is clearly a problem and one we need to take swift action to prevent from getting out of control, but let's remember that the CDC has estimated that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 and Feb. 1, 2020 in the U.S. alone, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000. And we have a vaccine for influenza, and this happens every year, and we don't stop anything for it.

this isn’t just about how many people may die. It’s about the 15-20% that need hospitalization And that this thing spreads much faster then the flu. Flu has an r0 of around 1.1. This think is 2.2-3

 

[zskid00]

That's why I said we need to take swift action to get it under control. I agree with that. There isn't wide spread testing in most countries due to supply and demand during this heightened awareness period, so it's most likely we don't have enough data to gauge the true hospitalization and death rate compared to exposure.

 

[xuxa777]

The way things are trending if the parks are able to open by the end of the year we will be very lucky

NY governor just said New York isn’t expected to peak until at least 45 days from now, and they will be short 50,000 hospital beds at that time

 

[mshanson3121]

I would guess at least June/July for re-opening. It won't be enough to see cases start to decline, they'll want to see steady, continuous decline, with very low numbers of new cases for a period of time. Further, they will not reopen until the CDC gives the all-clear.

 

[xuxa777]

I would guess at least June/July for re-opening. It won't be enough to see cases start to decline, they'll want to see steady, continuous decline, with very low numbers of new cases for a period of time. Further, they will not reopen until the CDC gives the all-clear.

Exactly, at best July for opening again. I hope it is that soon.

 

[PamNC]

I think the parks will stay closed through May. Basing that on intuition and how the Asian parks went down. As far as announcements, I think they'll make them in small bits - a couple weeks at a time versus one big fat announcement saying - "we're closing for 8 weeks."

 

[RufusCat]

Anyone contemplating the parks reopening in April or May should think again. They won't! This is a brand new virus, much more contagious than the flu and 10-20x more deadly. In one or two months it will have spread much further, we will be a year away from a vaccine and reopening a park where 20,000 people are mingling and many of whom WILL have the virus would be homicidal. These newly contaminated people from all over the country would go home and spread it even more. A theme park is like a Petri dish for a new disease. This isn't going away after a few weeks folks, that's for sure. Think of all the places where people gather and stand in line - the restaurants, the QSR queues, the ride queues, the gatherings during the parades and fireworks . Social distancing must be a thing for many months and this concept is completely incompatible with people mingling in theme parks. I really can't see a safe reopening before a vaccine is available and widely taken up. There may be a lull in the summer but it would come back with a vengeance in the cool days of late autumn.

 

[mattpeto]

The way things are trending if the parks are able to open by the end of the year we will be very lucky

NY governor just said New York isn’t expected to peak until at least 45 days from now, and they will be short 50,000 hospital beds at that time

Summer heat is our great hope right now. Some signs say it can help.

 

[kymom99]

Anyone contemplating the parks reopening in April or May should think again. They won't! This is a brand new virus, much more contagious than the flu and 10-20x more deadly. In one or two months it will have spread much further, we will be a year away from a vaccine and reopening a park where 20,000 people are mingling and many of whom WILL have the virus would be homicidal. These newly contaminated people from all over the country would go home and spread it even more. A theme park is like a Petri dish for a new disease. This isn't going away after a few weeks folks, that's for sure. Think of all the places where people gather and stand in line - the restaurants, the QSR queues, the ride queues, the gatherings during the parades and fireworks . Social distancing must be a thing for many months and this concept is completely incompatible with people mingling in theme parks. I really can't see a safe reopening before a vaccine is available and widely taken up. There may be a lull in the summer but it would come back with a vengeance in the cool days of late autumn.

I can’t remember the source now, there have been so many. But I’ve read that there will be waves but each wave could be potentially less severe as more and more are exposed to the virus. There could come a time when the at risk populations have to take precautions and the rest of us can go on as usual.

 

[RufusCat]

I can’t remember the source now, there have been so many. But I’ve read that there will be waves but each wave could be potentially less severe as more and more are exposed to the virus. There could come a time when the at risk populations have to take precautions and the rest of us can go on as usual.

Sure, but there's the rub. The more people are exposed to this the more will die. In a year or two there will be better herd immunity but with collateral damage of hundreds of thousands if not millions in the meantime. Better to isolate ourselves now until a vaccine is available and then far fewer people die.

 

[kymom99]

Sure, but there's the rub. The more and more people are exposed the more will die. In a year or two there will be better herd immunity but with collateral damage of hundreds of thousands if not millions in the meantime. Better to isolate ourselves now until a vaccine is available and then far fewer people die.

Absolutely but there will be a point where the whole thing shifts

 

[RufusCat]

Absolutely but there will be a point where the whole thing shifts

I hope so, it won't be for at least a year though. The immunity will take a while to build up and then again it can mutate. The smallpox virus was deadly for centuries and we never really built up a natural immunity against it, it was only eradicated after almost everyone on the planet was immunized against it. Could be the same with this disease, I hope not. But the theme parks won't reopen anytime soon, I'm afraid.

 

[kymom99]

Our governor just closed gyms, salons, concert venues, movie theaters, etc

 

[fla4fun]

Sure, but there's the rub. The more people are exposed to this the more will die. In a year or two there will be better herd immunity but with collateral damage of hundreds of thousands if not millions in the meantime. Better to isolate ourselves now until a vaccine is available and then far fewer people die.

Just curious, are you suggesting that all businesses shut down for 12-18 months, which is the estimated time for a vaccine to be available? I don’t personally know anyone who can go that long without a paycheck. Perhaps people are more affluent where you live, but most people I know don’t earn enough to have any significant savings and I know people in various parts of the country. I could possibly make it if I cash in my retirement, but I wouldn’t have enough time to rebuild it before I need it, since it’s lost a lot of value over the last week. I was just getting back to where I was after the last recession . . .

I could see a few months, but even that will be a stretch when most of a person’s unemployment check has to go for insurance premiums in case they get sick. Our unemployment is only six months anyway. After that, it’s just slow starvation. Is the virus worse than starvation? I am not sure. People are already fighting in the stores. What happens when they really get desperate? We need a balance somehow.

To be clear, I am not advocating that the theme parks open in a month. I think two or perhaps three months would be sufficient if people will just take this seriously and stay home unless your job is vital for the community. This is not the time to plan a party or hang out with your friends in person. The more people ignore common sense, the longer this is going to take.

 

[RufusCat]

Just curious, are you suggesting that all businesses shut down for 12-18 months, which is the estimated time for a vaccine to be available? I don’t personally know anyone who can go that long without a paycheck. Perhaps people are more affluent where you live, but most people I know don’t earn enough to have any significant savings and I know people in various parts of the country. I could possibly make it if I cash in my retirement, but I wouldn’t have enough time to rebuild it before I need it, since it’s lost a lot of value over the last week. I was just getting back to where I was after the last recession . . .

I could see a few months, but even that will be a stretch when most of a person’s unemployment check has to go for insurance premiums in case they get sick. Our unemployment is only six months anyway. After that, it’s just slow starvation. Is the virus worse than starvation? I am not sure. People are already fighting in the stores. What happens when they really get desperate? We need a balance somehow.

To be clear, I am not advocating that the theme parks open in a month. I think two or perhaps three months would be sufficient if people will just take this seriously and stay home unless your job is vital for the community. This is not the time to plan a party or hang out with your friends in person. The more people ignore common sense, the longer this is going to take.

Which is why the government has to step in and support everyone, businesses and people alike. This disease is unprecedented in the last 100 years. I hate to sound like a doomsayer but I'm listening to the science and we have two choices - 1) We carry on as normal and 2-3 million people in the USA die before their time (320 million population, 60-80% infected @ 1% death rate) or 2) We contain ourselves as much as we can (still go to work though, distancing ourselves etc) and this number is drastically reduced. The ethical choice is hunkering down with option two until a vaccine is available with the government covering business & paycheck losses until that time.

 

[Joe in VA]

Literally no chance at shutting the country down for a year. We would collapse financially and emotionally. I can't see a shutdown of this level lasting over a month or we go from recession talk to depression talk. I don't think Disney will be open in a month but I do see them open by July.

 

[RufusCat]

Oh it will be longer than a month. People here have no idea. Why do you think the government has just pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy and is sending helicopter money all over the whole country??????? You have no idea at all about how serious this is. And it could be a depression, absolutely.

 

[mshanson3121]

Anyone contemplating the parks reopening in April or May should think again. They won't! This is a brand new virus, much more contagious than the flu and 10-20x more deadly. In one or two months it will have spread much further, we will be a year away from a vaccine and reopening a park where 20,000 people are mingling and many of whom WILL have the virus would be homicidal. These newly contaminated people from all over the country would go home and spread it even more. A theme park is like a Petri dish for a new disease. This isn't going away after a few weeks folks, that's for sure. Think of all the places where people gather and stand in line - the restaurants, the QSR queues, the ride queues, the gatherings during the parades and fireworks . Social distancing must be a thing for many months and this concept is completely incompatible with people mingling in theme parks. I really can't see a safe reopening before a vaccine is available and widely taken up. There may be a lull in the summer but it would come back with a vengeance in the cool days of late autumn.

Latest estimates are 18 months for a vaccine. They injected the first human trial today, looking for 45 more volunteers in Seattle, but said in the article they will need to be followed for 12 months to gauge safety and effectiveness etc.... Then of course will take more time for next steps, production etc...

 

[jerry557]

I would guess at least June/July for re-opening. It won't be enough to see cases start to decline, they'll want to see steady, continuous decline, with very low numbers of new cases for a period of time. Further, they will not reopen until the CDC gives the all-clear.

CDC is never going to give an all-clear. Because it may never happen.

What they are trying to do is "flatten the curve" in other words slow the spread to a point where recoveries are equal or better than new infections AND make sure the hospitals aren't flooded. But that does NOT mean the virus has stopped spreading. It just means we will have done enough to prevent it from spreading beyond what we can keep up with. We may never reach a place where this virus is contained and no longer a threat. In fact there are some disease experts that think COVID-19 is now endemic. That means that it will never go away. It will keep coming back like the flu does every year. Some estimates are that over 60% of the world population is going to eventually be exposed over the next year no matter what we do. Hopefully, once we catch and defeat the virus, we become immune. If that is the case, then eventually we will improve as we gain herd immunity. But that will take years.

A vaccine will help tremendously especially for the elderly. But that's a long ways away. A vaccine is going to take a year to test and do trials even on its most accelerated track. And then it will take months to manufacture and distribute enough of it to make a difference.

So can Disney stay closed for 18+ months? Can restaurants and movie theaters? Can we not have school for 18 months? Can sports leagues not play for the next two years? And chances are even with all these precautions, most of us are going to eventually get sick from this virus. We've got some difficult days ahead.