If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[sam_gordon]

I wish people would stop trying to compare this to smoking, car crashes, cancer...etc.

Let's just buckle down and do what has to be done. It will suck (I have a small business that would take a HUGE hit and might not recover). Let's just stop arguing and straw man and blah blah blah.

Everybody stay home for 2 weeks and lets see where we are then.

I curious where you expect for EVERY family to be able to get food for two weeks at the same time. Pickings have been mighty slim in grocery stores as it is.

 

[skyblue17]

Ok, but still "we" have been taking measures since the 12th, with each new measure more restrictive.

But you seem to know what you are talking about so you should contact Cuomo, I'm sure he'll be happy to hear that from you

Unlike you, I'm not trying to be right here. I'm just sharing what I've experienced from living and working here. Have a good one.

 

[mjkacmom]

I curious where you expect for EVERY family to be able to get food for two weeks at the same time. Pickings have been mighty slim in grocery stores as it is.

You can go buy food, that’s it. Shelves are restocked. My friend recently got a job stocking shelves.

 

[erc]

I'd stay in a whole lot more if I could get more than 25% of my groceries at a time.

I just saw a picture from a family member in San Antonio where people are lined up to be able to enter a supermarket. Is that what people are experiencing? Our supermarkets (north of Boston) don't have restrictions beyond the special hours for seniors. When I have gone they have had just about everything in stock except toilet paper. Is it different in different areas of the country?

 

[sam_gordon]

You can go buy food, that’s it. Shelves are restocked. My friend recently got a job stocking shelves.

So the supermarket workers can work. That means you need gas station attendants (at some point the workers will need gas). Anyone else?

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I just saw a picture from a family member in San Antonio where people are lined up to be able to enter a supermarket. Is that what people are experiencing? Our supermarkets (north of Boston) don't have restrictions beyond the special hours for seniors. When I have gone they have had just about everything in stock except toilet paper. Is it different in different areas of the country?

We went grocery shopping this weekend and had the same experience (Detroit area).

 

[Hikergirl]

Unlike you, I'm not trying to be right here. I'm just sharing what I've experienced from living and working here. Have a good one.

I'm not sure what you are doing here to be honest.
You seem to be disputing a timeline of when things started to close in the city. Or maybe you just don't consider that to be measures taken to stop the spread? I personally do.

 

[mjkacmom]

According to the timeline in the link things started shutting down on March 12.
I never stated which things or that there was a complete lockdown so I'm not quite sure of your point in posting this.

I looked, apparently Broadway shut down. I guess you don't live in that neighborhood then.

I live in the NYC metro area. When schools closed, kids were roaming around in large groups, playgrounds were packed, athletic fields and basketball courts were packed (with ds17 an active participant, which he was punished for). Parents were hosting parties and play dates.

It‘s much different today, there is police tape around the parks, I’m no longer the mean mom as more and more parents take this seriously. I’m not seeing angry Facebook posts from people in town furious that folks aren’t following the rules. I see people walking down my street with no more than 2 adults in the group. It took more than a solid week for people to take this seriously.

 

[LuvOrlando]

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

I understand but don't think you are considering the massive losses that would accompany loss of life. Grieving people don't do great at work, worried parents and children will be preoccupied and distracted and will be there but won't quite show up. You also might be underestimating the impact of real &/or perceived social inequalities with regard to care and what that could morph into very quickly. I wouldn't underestimate the magnitude visceral emotion can have in the marketplace. It's best to tread very carefully because once this Genie is out of the bottle you can't get it back inside.

Do nothing and hope it just lands well, that has zero control and I can't get behind that. What if all the estimates are wrong? What if the thing isn't really what it looks like today and something is hidden or misunderstood. I'm in favor of whatever gives some control, no matter how grave the loss it is always better to have it than not have it. It can be compared to a forest fire. When fire runs away from authorities they go out and burn other segments to define the movement. It's not great and there is loss but the loss is less.

Once we let go there is no recapture.

As for me, I couldn't be more grateful that both my kids colleges (Penn State and UMASS Amherst) removed them from the dorms (if this were to spread like meningitis there would be nothing left) they are working from home and not loving it but they are safe and we are protecting the next generation of leaders in business and armed forces - we can't lose our future.

 

[Hikergirl]

I'd stay in a whole lot more if I could get more than 25% of my groceries at a time.

Right, We have to go out, and sometimes to multiple locations exposing us to alot of people, and them to us.

Let's be honest... a full on quarantine won't work either. The trick is to CUT DOWN how many are out and about, not eliminate everyone.

Yes, that is true but the question is, is what we are doing slowing the spread?
Apparently Governor Cuomo said it isn't.

 

[mom2rtk]

I just saw a picture from a family member in San Antonio where people are lined up to be able to enter a supermarket. Is that what people are experiencing? Our supermarkets (north of Boston) don't have restrictions beyond the special hours for seniors. When I have gone they have had just about everything in stock except toilet paper. Is it different in different areas of the country?

Nope, lots of stuff out of stock. You can have a list of certain dishes you want to serve, then when you get to the end of the store, you have only a small portion of the ingredients you need. Rice, pasta, beans, all gone. No fresh chicken, no ground beef. Bread aisle is empty.

 

[erc]

As for me, I couldn't be more grateful that both my kids colleges (Penn State and UMASS Amherst) removed them from the dorms (if this were to spread like meningitis there would be nothing left) they are working from home and not loving it but they are safe and we are protecting the next generation of leaders in business and armed forces - we can't lose our future.

The data so far is showing in the college age group that the overwhelming majority experience no or only mild symptoms. So it would not have been devastating. The schools were more likely closed because the professors and staff would have been affected more.

 

[skyblue17]

I'm not sure what you are doing here to be honest.
You seem to be disputing a timeline of when things started to close in the city. Or maybe you just don't consider that to be measures taken to stop the spread? I personally do.

I am only reiterating that those measures did not stop people from congregating, it didn't enforce social distancing, and it didn't mean that people were taking it seriously. Just because things STARTED at a certain time does not mean we should use that time as the beginning of the time period of when people started sheltering in place, because they didn't. There are SO MANY people here. I don't know if people can grasp how many people there are here if they haven't experienced it on a day-to-day basis. My only point in responding to this timeline is that it has NOT been two weeks, and there is NO WAY of knowing if it's working, because the plans in place were not absolute enough at the time for us to know that yet.

Anyway, I feel like I'm talking to the wall, so I'll stop now.

 

[mom2rtk]

I understand but don't think you are considering the massive losses that would accompany loss of life. Grieving people don't do great at work, worried parents and children will be preoccupied and distracted and will be there but won't quite show up. You also might be underestimating the impact of real &/or perceived social inequalities with regard to care and what that could morph into very quickly. I wouldn't underestimate the magnitude visceral emotion can have in the marketplace. It's best to tread very carefully because once this Genie is out of the bottle you can't get it back inside.

Do nothing and hope it just lands well, that has zero control and I can't get behind that. What if all the estimates are wrong? What if the thing isn't really what it looks like today and something is hidden or misunderstood. I'm in favor of whatever gives some control, no matter how grave the loss it is always better to have it than not have it. It can be compared to a forest fire. When fire runs away from authorities they go out and burn other segments to define the movement. It's not great and there is loss but the loss is less.

Once we let go there is no recapture.

As for me, I couldn't be more grateful that both my kids colleges (Penn State and UMASS Amherst) removed them from the dorms (if this were to spread like meningitis there would be nothing left) they are working from home and not loving it but they are safe and we are protecting the next generation of leaders in business and armed forces - we can't lose our future.

I'm also grateful my daughter's college sent kids home. Dorms are no place to weather something like this.

I never said we should do nothing. Just that we're not going to be able to keep this shut down as long as some think.

You can't open it all up and do nothing. You can't keep it closed up until the very last case is over. The answer is somewhere in the middle. The hard part is figuring out where.

You are underestimating the grief, worry and anxiety keeping everything closed down is causing as well. There is a cost. People are losing jobs and will lose homes. People are losing health insurance. I get that this is needed for now. But It can't go on for months like some suggest. There is a cost to doing nothing. There is a cost to doing everything. There is a cost to doing something. People at a higher pay grade than myself will have to figure out the optimal approach.

Some people's lives will be consumed just by the shut down. They will be affected as if a forest fire went through their homes.

 

[godisney14]

The data so far is showing in the college age group that the overwhelming majority experience no or only mild symptoms. So it would not have been devastating. The schools were more likely closed because the professors and staff would have been affected more.

Likely not for the college kids and their peers. But, do we know whether they keep to themselves and not interact with the rest of the community outside of their peer groups?

 

[Hikergirl]

I am only reiterating that those measures did not stop people from congregating, it didn't enforce social distancing, and it didn't mean that people were taking it seriously. Just because things STARTED at a certain time does not mean we should use that time as the beginning of the time period of when people started sheltering in place, because they didn't. There are SO MANY people here. I don't know if people can grasp how many people there are here if they haven't experienced it on a day-to-day basis. My only point in responding to this timeline is that it has NOT been two weeks, and there is NO WAY of knowing if it's working, because the plans in place were not absolute enough at the time for us to know that yet.

Anyway, I feel like I'm talking to the wall, so I'll stop now.

Ok, but you realize this whole exchange started because of what our Governor, the head of our state has said right. He is the one saying it isn't working.
I'm trying to discuss why that may be the case. You seem to have an issue with that so maybe it's better that you do stop then.

 

[Colleen27]

We cannot bring back the economy if we are all dead.

There is absolutely no scenario with this virus where we're "all" dead.

There's been a lot of talk about the virus in the language of war. To extend that metaphor, would it be worth detonating a weapon that would leave (conservatively) 10 million people destitute, without healthcare, at risk of homelessness, etc. to save 1 million combatants? That's what we're doing right now. In my state, every single county just lost 15+% of jobs to the shutdown order. In the poorest and most seasonally-dependent counties, that number is over 30%. Economic forecasts project 80 million jobs lost because of this. If just 1% of them end up experiencing a health crisis while uninsured or end up on the streets or take their own lives when in a position of seemingly hopeless economic despair, that's more lives lost than the worst virus projections.

Sorry, but these people are not going to be better off in a society that just lets people die. They are already at risk because not enough care about the poor. We can't let our society run forward into a future in which we let millions die to preserve jobs. No one who isn't uber wealthy is safe in such a society.

We're already that society. We're just now talking out loud about our definition of who is and isn't expendable.

 

[disneychrista]

So the supermarket workers can work. That means you need gas station attendants (at some point the workers will need gas). Anyone else?

All the food producers, all the package manufacturers, truck drivers, the list is pretty extensive of what is necessary JUST so we can have basic essentials (food, TP, cleaning products, etc).

 

[monsterkitty]

The data so far is showing in the college age group that the overwhelming majority experience no or only mild symptoms. So it would not have been devastating. The schools were more likely closed because the professors and staff would have been affected more.

When those college-aged students go home they spread the virus to their parents and grandparents. So while it may not affect them as badly, it will affect those around them.

Schools were closed to prevent students of all ages from spreading the virus.

 

[skyblue17]

Ok, but you realize this whole exchange started because of what our Governor, the head of our state has said right. He is the one saying it isn't working.
I'm trying to discuss why that may be the case. You seem to have an issue with that so maybe it's better that you do stop then.

I got that, which is why I shared what I've been experiencing as a possible reason as to why it's not working.