Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Colleen27]

I totally agree.
—————
And I’m going to disagree with the sentiment from an earlier poster that people are all or nothing. Sure there are people on either extreme, but most of us want a middle ground. And some have gotten it. And some of us haven’t. While I think wearing a mask and social distancing should be a given and not a debate, it helps if things actually opened up. And in my part of CA, they still really aren’t. Yes, we have a lot of outdoor options, but when you add the wildfires and smoke, we can’t even go outside, so those are a no go. And for anybody questioning it, we are still having spare the air days and have had maybe 10 safe air days (and by that I mean not hazardous) in the last 60.

That’s my long winded way of saying that for many of us, we were good for the original 2 weeks, then 2 months, even 5-6 months. As we approach 8 months, the social isolation part of this is passing into unhealthy territory. And yes, for me, mental health is just as important to physical health. So while I’m not over it and I still limit what we do (my kids still don’t hang out with groups of friends, we don’t do any gatherings, we wear masks and/or keep distance from anybody outside our bubble), we are starting to loosen our personal guidelines. We will not be cavalier with our decisions, and I know there are plenty who disagree with me, but the restrictions in my state, especially in my county are too severe. They are not going to get compliance 8 months in because we’ve been doing this too long without really earning anything back - and the one time we did, it all got taken away when the guidelines were changed under this new tier system. (In California for reference).

I agree. I feel for you all out in California - my daughter's university just moved the spring & summer semesters to full remote and is "hoping" that at least professors will be able to work in their offices - they're not allowed to right now, even without support staff - and in their email to parents about it, they basically said that the only way fall of 2021 will be back on campus is if there is widespread vaccination by then. She's actually thinking about applying to transfer to a different school even though she loves her university because we don't believe that vaccination is that close, and she doesn't want half (or more) of her college experience as a lab science major to be done alone in her bedroom, watching labs on YouTube. And the crazy levels of isolation out there are leading us to take a risk we probably wouldn't have otherwise - my MIL, my 12yo and I are flying out on Friday to surprise her with a weekend visit, because she's been so down about this whole situation. Being out there has been better than being at home, where she's even more isolated from her peers on top of coping with the distractions of a very noisy family, but she sounded so dejected after getting the email about spring/summer that I decided to resurrect our planned fall visit after all. Hopefully the air quality isn't too terrible, because according to her, almost everything indoors is still closed (though she said the museums are now allowed to open at limited capacity, so I might finally get to the DeYoung while we're there).

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I agree. I feel for you all out in California - my daughter's university just moved the spring & summer semesters to full remote and is "hoping" that at least professors will be able to work in their offices - they're not allowed to right now, even without support staff - and in their email to parents about it, they basically said that the only way fall of 2021 will be back on campus is if there is widespread vaccination by then. She's actually thinking about applying to transfer to a different school even though she loves her university because we don't believe that vaccination is that close, and she doesn't want half (or more) of her college experience as a lab science major to be done alone in her bedroom, watching labs on YouTube. And the crazy levels of isolation out there are leading us to take a risk we probably wouldn't have otherwise - my MIL, my 12yo and I are flying out on Friday to surprise her with a weekend visit, because she's been so down about this whole situation. Being out there has been better than being at home, where she's even more isolated from her peers on top of coping with the distractions of a very noisy family, but she sounded so dejected after getting the email about spring/summer that I decided to resurrect our planned fall visit after all. Hopefully the air quality isn't too terrible, because according to her, almost everything indoors is still closed (though she said the museums are now allowed to open at limited capacity, so I might finally get to the DeYoung while we're there).

Enjoy your visit! I bet it will do wonders for her. And I hope you get to go to the DeYoung - it’s amazing. I’ve gotten to go a few times as a chaperone on field trips.

 

[ronandannette]

I agree. I feel for you all out in California - my daughter's university just moved the spring & summer semesters to full remote and is "hoping" that at least professors will be able to work in their offices - they're not allowed to right now, even without support staff - and in their email to parents about it, they basically said that the only way fall of 2021 will be back on campus is if there is widespread vaccination by then. She's actually thinking about applying to transfer to a different school even though she loves her university because we don't believe that vaccination is that close, and she doesn't want half (or more) of her college experience as a lab science major to be done alone in her bedroom, watching labs on YouTube. And the crazy levels of isolation out there are leading us to take a risk we probably wouldn't have otherwise - my MIL, my 12yo and I are flying out on Friday to surprise her with a weekend visit, because she's been so down about this whole situation. Being out there has been better than being at home, where she's even more isolated from her peers on top of coping with the distractions of a very noisy family, but she sounded so dejected after getting the email about spring/summer that I decided to resurrect our planned fall visit after all. Hopefully the air quality isn't too terrible, because according to her, almost everything indoors is still closed (though she said the museums are now allowed to open at limited capacity, so I might finally get to the DeYoung while we're there).

Interesting comments. Although my DS is not a STEM major, it’s impossible not to have the same concerns about the quality of an education delivered completely on-line. Here there are no schools to transfer to - AFAIK no post-secondary school in Canada is offering in-person classes for under-graduate work (I don’t know for sure and stand open for correction). Many, many students chose to save the tuition and defer their enrolments this year.

 

[Colleen27]

Interesting comments. Although my DS is not a STEM major, it’s impossible not to have the same concerns about the quality of an education delivered completely on-line. Here there are no schools to transfer to - AFAIK no post-secondary school in Canada is offering in-person classes for under-graduate work (I don’t know for sure and stand open for correction). Many, many students chose to save the tuition and defer their enrolments this year.

Just about every school in our home state is open to some degree - some are primarily remote with only labs and other classes that don't translate to distance learning being held in person, and others are basically back to normal with targeted short-term closures if/when the virus starts spreading. The same is true of two of the schools she turned down to be where she's at. So it is particularly frustrating for her to be at a university in a state that is still so closed up (and I'm in one of the states that has been more cautious as well, but I'm not sure anywhere has been quite as cautious as California and San Francisco is on their own reopening timeline that is even more restrictive than the rest of the state). But for us, taking a year off isn't an option because the school won't guarantee her aid package would remain unchanged and her scholarships and grants are the only reason we can afford the university she's at... so if she does decide to transfer, that's a decision that will be guided as much by finances as by education.

 

[Pyotr]

Here is an interesting article on excess deaths from February 1 to September 23. The article estimates that 26.3 excess deaths in that timeframe were the result of the response to covid (delay in diagnosis/treatment, fear of seeking medical attention, loss of insurance), other than the virus itself.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20184036v3
“Excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 were even higher than predicted by our model in counties with high income inequality, low homeownership, and high percentages of Black residents, showing a pattern related to socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism.”

 

[ronandannette]

Just about every school in our home state is open to some degree - some are primarily remote with only labs and other classes that don't translate to distance learning being held in person, and others are basically back to normal with targeted short-term closures if/when the virus starts spreading. The same is true of two of the schools she turned down to be where she's at. So it is particularly frustrating for her to be at a university in a state that is still so closed up (and I'm in one of the states that has been more cautious as well, but I'm not sure anywhere has been quite as cautious as California and San Francisco is on their own reopening timeline that is even more restrictive than the rest of the state). But for us, taking a year off isn't an option because the school won't guarantee her aid package would remain unchanged and her scholarships and grants are the only reason we can afford the university she's at... so if she does decide to transfer, that's a decision that will be guided as much by finances as by education.

The difference in university costs between the US and Canada is a whole ‘nother thread but I think I understand. I wish your DD well in navigating yet another set of circumstances none of us could ever have dreamed we’d be facing.

 

[godisney14]

I agree. I feel for you all out in California - my daughter's university just moved the spring & summer semesters to full remote and is "hoping" that at least professors will be able to work in their offices - they're not allowed to right now, even without support staff - and in their email to parents about it, they basically said that the only way fall of 2021 will be back on campus is if there is widespread vaccination by then. She's actually thinking about applying to transfer to a different school even though she loves her university because we don't believe that vaccination is that close, and she doesn't want half (or more) of her college experience as a lab science major to be done alone in her bedroom, watching labs on YouTube. And the crazy levels of isolation out there are leading us to take a risk we probably wouldn't have otherwise - my MIL, my 12yo and I are flying out on Friday to surprise her with a weekend visit, because she's been so down about this whole situation. Being out there has been better than being at home, where she's even more isolated from her peers on top of coping with the distractions of a very noisy family, but she sounded so dejected after getting the email about spring/summer that I decided to resurrect our planned fall visit after all. Hopefully the air quality isn't too terrible, because according to her, almost everything indoors is still closed (though she said the museums are now allowed to open at limited capacity, so I might finally get to the DeYoung while we're there).

The past week have been great. Great air quality and low to mild temps. Hopefully, it’ll stay that way when you visit.
Between the very high temperatures in the past month(s), the air quality due to wildfires, ash and smoke, and the virus situation, it had been mostly staying indoors.

Here is an interesting article on excess deaths from February 1 to September 23. The article estimates that 26.3 excess deaths in that timeframe were the result of the response to covid (delay in diagnosis/treatment, fear of seeking medical attention, loss of insurance), other than the virus itself.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20184036v3
“Excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 were even higher than predicted by our model in counties with high income inequality, low homeownership, and high percentages of Black residents, showing a pattern related to socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism.”

More reason to not fool around with this virus and continue to push for getting a handle on the situation. All these direct and indirect causes are pretty sad.

 

[bavaria]

And I’m going to disagree with the sentiment from an earlier poster that people are all or nothing. Sure there are people on either extreme, but most of us want a middle ground.

Since I and one or two others are being incorrectly ascribed by other posters to saying that 'everything should open', I'll quote myself. And note that this is not in regards to the United States, because to paraphrase @Dan Murphy again, you are sadly still on a different planet right now.

We are not saying that.

What we are saying is that there has to be an ongoing review and assessment of risk and balance. The problem is that it is difficult to have a discussion when people only see in black and white ie open or close. There are many different ways countries have tried to implement a guideline, measurement, testing, etc which has been effective for the last many months. Closing borders entirely (and yet again, let's take the US out of this), and implementing a quarantine of 14 days on arrival, and keeping many state/provincial borders closed is a very heavy handed, across the board approach. It is killing economies, and having a severe impact on health. Many countries have taken the risk to open with some measure in place, without a significant negative impact. Testing on or before arrival, reducing quarantine to fewer days, and implementing a case per 100,000 measure are just some examples which have worked around the world. So has opening to select 'safe' countries like Japan and South Korea are doing. There are many options besides 'open' and 'closed', and the discussion is not so simplistic.

And we have all said that we follow local guidelines, although they may vary depending on where we are in the world. Masks are not mandated everywhere, things like sauna/swimming are open in many places, so are theatres/concerts etc. I don't think that I've read many people at all here say 'open everything' (Although admittedly I only read a few threads)

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Since I and one or two others are being incorrectly ascribed to saying that 'everything should open', I'll quote myself. And note that this is not in regards to the United States, because to paraphrase @Dan Murphy again, you are sadly still on a different planet right now.

We are not saying that.

What we are saying is that there has to be an ongoing review and assessment of risk and balance. The problem is that it is difficult to have a discussion when people only see in black and white ie open or close. There are many different ways countries have tried to implement a guideline, measurement, testing, etc which has been effective for the last many months. Closing borders entirely (and yet again, let's take the US out of this), and implementing a quarantine of 14 days on arrival, and keeping many state/provincial borders closed is a very heavy handed, across the board approach. It is killing economies, and having a severe impact on health. Many countries have taken the risk to open with some measure in place, without a significant negative impact. Testing on or before arrival, reducing quarantine to fewer days, and implementing a case per 100,000 measure are just some examples which have worked around the world. So has opening to select 'safe' countries like Japan and South Korea are doing. There are many options besides 'open' and 'closed', and the discussion is not so simplistic.

And we have all said that we follow local guidelines, although they may vary depending on where we are in the world. Masks are not mandated everywhere, things like sauna/swimming are open in many places, so are theatres/concerts etc. I don't think that I've read many people at all here say 'open everything' (Although admittedly I only read a few threads)

Please know I was not talking about you. I wasn’t actually talking about anybody on this thread. It was just an in general statement, including people in my own life.

 

[bavaria]

As to cases rising, yes they are. However we cannot look at 'Europe' at one entity. The DACH+FL countries (and poor little Portugal, which is a poor nation, and has the fewest ICU beds per capita in Europe) are seeing rising cases already for 3-4 weeks, but deaths have remained flat in these countries. The next 10 days are critical to see if this trend continues. If the death rate remains uncoupled from the case rate, then it may be time to shift the focus from cases and back to hospitalizations and deaths (Currently 500 in ICU in a population of 85 million, with 22,000 extra ICU beds open. Average 10-12 deaths/day in a population of 85 million, at a higher age than average mortality)

Over the weekend, both the Welt and the SZ, the most respected newspapers, were full of articles saying that local travel restrictions don't work, rising cases doesn't mean cause for concern, etc. Even the COVIDmeister Drosten said that travel restrictions don't make sense. Here is just one quote:

The chairman of the board of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians , Andreas Gassen, has criticized warnings that the corona pandemic is getting out of control as misleading, also in view of the increasing number of new infections. "We have to stop staring at the number of new infections like the rabbit at the snake, that leads to false alarmism," he told the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung" (Saturday). Even 10,000 infections a day would not be a drama if only one in 1,000 fell seriously ill, as we are currently observing." Gassen responded to statements by Lothar Wieler, the head of the Robert Koch Institute, who warned on Thursday of a loss of control would have.

In the spring there were up to 150 corona deaths per day with 4,000 new patients, Gassen explained. "It's over. Now there are single-digit death rates. As long as the ratio remains that way, new infections in the five-digit range are hardly relevant. ”An overload of the health system is not in sight in autumn and winter either, said the doctor.

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/art...rt-Koch-Institut-falschen-Alarmismus-vor.html

 

[bavaria]

Please know I was not talking about you. I wasn’t actually talking about anybody on this thread. It was just an in general statement, including people in my own life.

Sorry, quoted you but you were not the one saying that! Apologies! I just took the quote that you had said but to be clear was probably not the best one to choose...

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Sorry, quoted you but you were not the one saying that! Apologies! I just took the quote that you had said but to be clear was probably not the best one to choose...

All good!

To clarify what I was trying to say is that while I’m sure there are actual people who are of the mindset of close everything up to the converse of absolutely no restrictions, most people actually fall in the middle somewhere. And that anybody who remotely suggests opening things up further isn’t at all suggesting no rules at all. And although it hasn’t changed since March, it’s tiring for the assumption to be made that we don’t care or being cavalier with the virus.

 

[goofyernmost]

Staying fairly level, but not gone away in any sense of the word in the Raleigh area.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

It’s no mystery why it’s spreading so easily. People need to stay home when they have symptoms, even if you think it’s allergies or something else. And by all means, if you are concerned enough to call your doctor asking if they think you should get Covid tested, call before you go to work, not from work. I have a coworker who came to work Friday and today and now if she tests positive, she’s exposed quite a few of us.

 

[Jrb1979]

It’s no mystery why it’s spreading so easily. People need to stay home when they have symptoms, even if you think it’s allergies or something else. And by all means, if you are concerned enough to call your doctor asking if they think you should get Covid tested, call before you go to work, not from work. I have a coworker who came to work Friday and today and now if she tests positive, she’s exposed quite a few of us.

I agree and it's not just work. Why do you think weddings and family get togethers are where it's spreading. Too many people just won't stay home if they aren't feeling well

 

[NFLDERS]

Since I and one or two others are being incorrectly ascribed by other posters to saying that 'everything should open', I'll quote myself. And note that this is not in regards to the United States, because to paraphrase @Dan Murphy again, you are sadly still on a different planet right now.

We are not saying that.

What we are saying is that there has to be an ongoing review and assessment of risk and balance. The problem is that it is difficult to have a discussion when people only see in black and white ie open or close. There are many different ways countries have tried to implement a guideline, measurement, testing, etc which has been effective for the last many months. Closing borders entirely (and yet again, let's take the US out of this), and implementing a quarantine of 14 days on arrival, and keeping many state/provincial borders closed is a very heavy handed, across the board approach. It is killing economies, and having a severe impact on health. Many countries have taken the risk to open with some measure in place, without a significant negative impact. Testing on or before arrival, reducing quarantine to fewer days, and implementing a case per 100,000 measure are just some examples which have worked around the world. So has opening to select 'safe' countries like Japan and South Korea are doing. There are many options besides 'open' and 'closed', and the discussion is not so simplistic.

And we have all said that we follow local guidelines, although they may vary depending on where we are in the world. Masks are not mandated everywhere, things like sauna/swimming are open in many places, so are theatres/concerts etc. I don't think that I've read many people at all here say 'open everything' (Although admittedly I only read a few threads)

I'll go on record as saying as we Canadians do, 'Sorry' because I for one thought a few here wanted to throw it all open, and let the chips fall where they may. As a senior I had visions of being sent off to sea. I've been curious what medical field are you employed in?

At the same time this holiday week end here is being reported as a miserable fail, and numbers two weeks from now are to reflect this.

 

[LoveSpringsteen]

You must not be too far from me. I think I know what school district you are talking about. Where I am at we just went to hybrid last week (we were previously full remote) and had our first case in the HS on Friday. I think by the end of the week we will be over 2000. I hope not though.

Hi neighbor! I am in NE Ohio. The district announced last night, that we'll remain in online learning through October 26th, to be re-assessed at the next meeting on October 22nd. I am happy with their proactive approach. They're doing their best to keep everyone safe and closed the schools when we had relatively few cases (but enough people were quarantined that it was best to close them).

 

[piglet1979]

Hi neighbor! I am in NE Ohio. The district announced last night, that we'll remain in online learning through October 26th, to be re-assessed at the next meeting on October 22nd. I am happy with their proactive approach. They're doing their best to keep everyone safe and closed the schools when we had relatively few cases (but enough people were quarantined that it was best to close them).

I am in NE Ohio as well but on the west side. I have heard about your district closing and going remote and I was pretty pleased with how they handled it. I am hoping ours will be as well. It doesn't affect us as our 2 kids are staying remote for at least the first semester. Hopefully our numbers in the start will start to go down.

 

[LoveSpringsteen]

I am in NE Ohio as well but on the west side. I have heard about your district closing and going remote and I was pretty pleased with how they handled it. I am hoping ours will be as well. It doesn't affect us as our 2 kids are staying remote for at least the first semester. Hopefully our numbers in the start will start to go down.

It's nice to "meet" someone from our area. I hope the numbers start decreasing and people follow the recommended protocols. Best wishes to you for continued good health.

 

[Pyotr]

Not a whole lot new to report in my county. Cases have remained flat. Schools, despite being open, haven’t had the mass outbreaks many people were expecting.

There was an interesting study published by the CDC. Two weeks prior to a positive COVID test, 14.4% of symptomatic COVID adults reported they often wore a face mask and a staggering 70.6% reported they always wore a face mask.