Where is bottom?

[Ariel620]

At some point Disney's going to have to lower the direct pricing on the 2042 resorts, or move to a policy of never ROFR'ing them ever under any circumstances.

Yes, I think this may have already happened. From what I can find the last time Disney ROFRed a 2042 resort was almost a year ago.

(or maybe I'm just hoping this already happened... so that my contract makes it through RORF!)

 

[kboo]

I was talking about this in the context of whether Disney would prefer to sell “new” or “old” resorts.

I figure financing is a wash, no matter where the inventory comes from. People either borrow for the purchase or they don't.

I'm not sure I understand, but I also think it doesn't matter? I was saying that financing new DVC, especially at 150 points a pop, generates more than just the purchase price for DVC/DVD.

 

[tjkraz]

Yes, I think this may have already happened. From what I can find the last time Disney ROFRed a 2042 resort was almost a year ago.

(or maybe I'm just hoping this already happened... so that my contract makes it through RORF!)

No, that's not true. They bought back some points at Boulder Ridge and Beach Club as recently as September. They were pretty heavily involved in BCV, BWV and BRV last summer, then it started to drop off in the fall.

Of course, there is no guarantee about how active DVC will be with those locations even if ROFR picks up again.

 

[Chili327]

DVC direct has priced itself so high right now it is really absurd that most families would even consider it. Especially with the 150 point buy in.

Agree, The 150pt minimum takes direct perks completely out of the question for me. So Resale is a no brainer.

DVC will just reduce the minimum point requirement back to 50 or 100 points, I'm guessing this Fall for a new member. They can make it what ever they want.

If they did that, I would definitely be more interested in direct points for VDH (or possibly others for that matter)

Honestly I think what potentially is going to happen is once you get to about 5-7 years out DVC will start hoarding points from a discount and then roll out a offer with 2-3 years left to sell you a BWV 2.0 with points in BWV 1.0 for the remaining time.

Also in 10 years does Disney have even less cash rooms in Deluxe and use the DVC turnover as the contracts run out as a way to build out a increase in supply of cash rooms without building more cash rooms.

I do think they will do something similar, it only makes sense.
Would it also makes sense to turn Yacht Club into DVC so they have something new/current in that area, while they deal with BCV & BWV.?

 

[Cfabar1]

Agree, The 150pt minimum takes direct perks completely out of the question for me. So Resale is a no brainer.



If they did that, I would definitely be more interested in direct points for VDH (or possibly others for that matter)



I do think they will do something similar, it only makes sense.
Would it also makes sense to turn Yacht Club into DVC so they have something new/current in that area, while they deal with BCV & BWV.?

I think DVC will start hoarding the 2042 points once we get to about 2038… They may even incentivize owners to “turn them in” early - especially at Beach Club and Boardwalk…. Those are the crown jewel of the 2042 resorts. No way are they going to want those properties to convert to all cash rooms at once unless they’re sure they can fill them. I could see a Yacht Club concept working, if they thought they would de convert the BW/BC rooms into cash rooms on the other side. The key is, I don’t think Disney right now anyways, sees the need for significantly more capacity.

The real question is does DVC have ANY plan Post-Polynesian? I worry the whole thing is just going to languish.

 

[Mexacajun]

Yes, I think this may have already happened. From what I can find the last time Disney ROFRed a 2042 resort was almost a year ago.

(or maybe I'm just hoping this already happened... so that my contract makes it through RORF!)

They did ROFR a okw ext last year from me. It was my first attempt at resale and I was pretty sad about it.

 

[Royal Consort]

They may even incentivize owners to “turn them in”

WANTED posters all over Frontierland.

 

[Genie+]

I think DVC will start hoarding the 2042 points once we get to about 2038… They may even incentivize owners to “turn them in” early - especially at Beach Club and Boardwalk…. Those are the crown jewel of the 2042 resorts. No way are they going to want those properties to convert to all cash rooms at once unless they’re sure they can fill them. I could see a Yacht Club concept working, if they thought they would de convert the BW/BC rooms into cash rooms on the other side. The key is, I don’t think Disney right now anyways, sees the need for significantly more capacity.

The real question is does DVC have ANY plan Post-Polynesian? I worry the whole thing is just going to languish.

BWV is getting a full renovation this year, including the common areas and very likely a facelift out in front. The hard refurb for villas is on an approx 14 year schedule. Say it concludes in 2024, then 2038 is the timeline for the next big overhaul. I’m very curious what will happen with less than 5 years left on the contract.

BCV on the other hand is on a flipped schedule from BWV. Same timeline/years but currently BC’s getting the soft while BW getting the hard, and in another ~7 years BC will get the hard while BW gets the soft refresh. So BW has 2 Hard refurbs before expiration, and BC just one (approx 2030 or so).

When 2040 comes around BW is likely still fresh from the ~2038 hard refurb, but BC will be 7 years ‘longer in the tooth’ lol With the last major update ~2030. Just a wild guess but I can see BC being first and undergoing major changes after it expires.

 

[sethschroeder]

When 2040 comes around BW is likely still fresh from the ~2038 hard refurb, but BC will be 7 years ‘longer in the tooth’ lol With the last major update ~2030. Just a wild guess but I can see BC being first and undergoing major changes after it expires.

DVC is going to be challenged like they have been with point charts regarding refurbs at the end. The concept would be any refurb should be written off for the value when the contract expires.

I think they will be challenged if they tried to do a hard refurb in 2038 right before Disney takes back the resorts.

Additionally less and less money should be taken at the end as well since they don't need to collect for future refurbs since it would have already been done and at that point its just simply about getting it across the finish line.

 

[Genie+]

DVC is going to be challenged like they have been with point charts regarding refurbs at the end. The concept would be any refurb should be written off for the value when the contract expires.

I think they will be challenged if they tried to do a hard refurb in 2038 right before Disney takes back the resorts.

Additionally less and less money should be taken at the end as well since they don't need to collect for future refurbs since it would have already been done and at that point its just simply about getting it across the finish line.

That’s a good point. I’m a BW owner and was under the impression part of our dues went towards upcoming refurb, either hard or soft. Is there a way they could just cancel the last hard refurb? Will be interesting. Hopefully they address how this will all be handled at some point that’s not last minute.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

That’s a good point. I’m a BW owner and was under the impression part of our dues went towards upcoming refurb, either hard or soft. Is there a way they could just cancel the last hard refurb? Will be interesting. Hopefully they address how this will all be handled at some point that’s not last minute.

They have a fiduciary duty towards the owners to not waste their dues money. Scheduling a hard refurb 3 years before the resort is due to close forever would seem like a pretty big breach of that fiduciary duty to me, especially if they turn around and immediately re-sell the "newly refurbished Boardwalk Villas!" to new members.

 

[tjkraz]

They have a fiduciary duty towards the owners to not waste their dues money. Scheduling a hard refurb 3 years before the resort is due to close forever would seem like a pretty big breach of that fiduciary duty to me, especially if they turn around and immediately re-sell the "newly refurbished Boardwalk Villas!" to new members.

Agree. They also need to start pulling-back on capital improvements charges for any items that won't be needed before the end of the term. In the last several years, there should be very little charged for those items. Though we may see an uptick in the maintenance budget if they need to bandaid things at resorts who are long removed from their last full refurb.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I think DVC will start hoarding the 2042 points once we get to about 2038… They may even incentivize owners to “turn them in” early - especially at Beach Club and Boardwalk…. Those are the crown jewel of the 2042 resorts. No way are they going to want those properties to convert to all cash rooms at once unless they’re sure they can fill them. I could see a Yacht Club concept working, if they thought they would de convert the BW/BC rooms into cash rooms on the other side. The key is, I don’t think Disney right now anyways, sees the need for significantly more capacity.

Agreed and there is no way they will be able to fill those rooms at "nightly" rates. The only reason they're filled now is the DVC model...I can't see the vast majority of DVC stayers being willing to pay closer to nightly rates. Regardless, particularly with these two "shared property" resorts, Disney is dependent on revenue of some sort from those rooms to make the whole resort economics work. DVC dues are paying for half the common areas at these resorts....they can't have that revenue just vanish and keep the resorts up. If Disney lowered rates to let's say, DVC rental rates, would they canibalize their other Deluxe resorts? It could be a bit of a mess for them. I think the smart money is on BWV 2.0 - let it all lapse and start reselling fresh. Dump a chunk of change into the resorts, wash the points charts and just start selling like it's a new resort. Maybe toss an extra discount to "expiring" owners as a token gesture (and attempt to jump start sales).

The real question is does DVC have ANY plan Post-Polynesian? I worry the whole thing is just going to languish.

Curious what you mean - plan for what? New resorts? Or some other concern about languishing?

As for new resorts, I'll be honest, I was around and toured Old Key West when it first opened....I don't think at that time there was any expectation DVC would grow as large as it has. I feel like we've become insatiable for new resorts....and there has to be some end to that, right?

 

[E2ME2]

Agree, The 150pt minimum takes direct perks completely out of the question for me. So Resale is a no brainer.



If they did that, I would definitely be more interested in direct points for VDH (or possibly others for that matter)



I do think they will do something similar, it only makes sense.
Would it also makes sense to turn Yacht Club into DVC so they have something new/current in that area, while they deal with BCV &

Agree, The 150pt minimum takes direct perks completely out of the question for me. So Resale is a no brainer.



If they did that, I would definitely be more interested in direct points for VDH (or possibly others for that matter)



I do think they will do something similar, it only makes sense.
Would it also makes sense to turn Yacht Club into DVC so they have something new/current in that area, while they deal with BCV & BWV.?

I just saw a BCV contract with my use year and just the number of points desired, but listed at $185/PP. It’s list date is August of 2022. I am tempted to to throw a crazy low offer at that one, just to see how the seller/broker respond

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I just saw a BCV contract with my use year and just the number of points desired, but listed at $185/PP. It’s list date is August of 2022. I am tempted to to throw a crazy low offer at that one, just to see how the seller/broker respond

Offer $95 and see what happens. Then report back!

 

[E2ME2]

Offer $95 and see what happens. Then report back!

I like how you roll - I was thinking of offering$100
My luck, they accept it, and I’ll be here crying about slow sellers and slow title companies. Remember when ROFR was the pacing item??

 

[tom1944]

I just saw a BCV contract with my use year and just the number of points desired, but listed at $185/PP. It’s list date is August of 2022. I am tempted to to throw a crazy low offer at that one, just to see how the seller/broker respond

Nothing wrong with a crazy low offer to counter a crazy high listing

 

[Chili327]

Nothing wrong with a crazy low offer to counter a crazy high listing

Exactly, fight fire with fire.

 

[Cfabar1]

Nothing wrong with a crazy low offer to counter a crazy high listing

I have done this. It has never worked out for me, but I wish you luck.

 

[brinkley07]

I get plenty of "spam" from the dvc brokers I've interacted with, so I don't think this it it. I just haven't had anyone actually reach out with the specific contract I told them I'm interested in. (Which is fine, I found the contracts elsewhere at a better price). But it does seem like a missed opportunity for the brokers.

I have often been told to just keep looking by brokers. They are horrible about trying to keep track of what the majority of people are looking for and reaching out. However, they tend to have the buyers reaching out to them and don't seem to be hurting for business. As a realtor I'm always amazed at the lack of professionalism, fiduciary responsibility, and follow through by a majority of DVC related brokers. Thankfully there are a few good ones out there, and I've been able to work with them.