Inventory This High?

[CarolynFH]

Touringplans bases much of their reporting on reported attraction wait times in My Disney Experience

I thought they had their own app where people reported their actual wait times directly to them?

 

[DonMacGregor]

I thought they had their own app where people reported their actual wait times directly to them?

Either way, their "crowd estimates" are still an interpretation of wait times, and not actual attendance. As far as WDW goes, I wouldn't be surprised that crowds may be easing as we move further away from the revenge travel surge and the 50th Anniversary winds down. I was there last week and didn't see or feel any real difference from March 2022. As for DL, I can say that actual internal attendance projections are not significantly down from last year (which could also be related to the beginning of the 100th Anniversary celebration), regardless of whatever hotel discounts may be being offered for the summer.

 

[Lumpy1106]

So I think what you're saying here, is that even though people are sick and tired of Disney's antics and leave, there are plenty of others who continue to go no matter what, and offsets the difference so the parks stay crowded? I can buy that.

Exactly. That thinking really doesn't square with DVC in general and adding / expanding the DVC resorts though. By it's very nature, that requires DVC members to keep returning. So if they want to reduce the # of repeat visitors in order to provide a more premium experience to the once-in-a-long-time visitors, why keep expanding DVC? I don't think Disney really knows either.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

But I don’t think Touring Plans has access to real data do they? Aren’t they still pretty much a guess using wait times?

I have been here 8 times in the last year and can tell you the parks are busy. So, if attendance is down it’s not significant in any way that it shows..walking around with lots of people.

That was my point. People are visiting and spending money. Resort discounts are for getting people to choose onsite vs offsite resorts and the summer ones were always like this,,,we were summer visitors because I was a teacher and we always got these deals..and better..

No, you're right, TP is at best an estimate of what is going on. In the absence of anything else that is concrete though, I think the TP evidence, coupled with the discounts they are offering this year (they did not offer this level of discounts last year and the resorts were jam packed) at least indicate that demand is likely slowing somewhat. It is still very crowded for sure, and demand is still high, it just doesn't appear to be quite as high.

Edit: And I don't think it's just onsite resorts. This is completely anecdotal, but when I've looked for last minute availability at the Swan, the Dolphin, and Sheraton Vistana/MVC properties, there seems to be more availabiilty now at peak times than last year.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I thought they had their own app where people reported their actual wait times directly to them?

Yes - they claim to supplement their model with this....but how many people do we see here on DIS talking about reporting their wait times to TouringPlans? I have doubts as to the volume of such data they get and you can tell their models are heavily dependent on the MyDisneyExperience app and some deviations they not from other "reports". Again, it's not invaluable but I don't think it should be taken as a precise science.

 

[mustinjourney]

I think this hits the nail on the head. Minimum direct buy-in with closing costs right now is pushing $35,000. With the current ever-inflating points charts, that maybe gets you a week in a studio. That's a lot of money for what is really an impulse buy. (People who go home and do their research usually end up buying resale or not at all). Disney got greedy and it's coming back to bite them. If they had kept the direct buyin in the still pricey, and definitely still profitable, $150 - $175ish range, with a 100 point buy-in, they wouldn't be having these problems, and they would still be quickly selling out their resorts and turning fast profits.

Oh, and not caring enough about DVC members to even let them buy an annual pass isn't helping.

Not selling the AP to DVC members is about the dumbest thing they could do. Discounted APs are basically the gateway drug to buying MORE points. And if you have to be a direct member to get the discounted AP, that just further drives more demand for direct purchases.

This is what happens when each corporate entity is only looking at their silo and there isn't someone taking a more holistic approach to the whole thing.

 

[mustinjourney]

^ THIS
We were just in San Diego touring the Midway (HIGHLY recommend BTW) and watched as the Wonder set sail. DW would LOVE to go on another cruise, but as we watched it sail away, she also said she has no desire to go to WDW anymore. That sucks to put it bluntly, but I see her viewpoint. When we bought DVC (just before restrictions) we were going at least once a year and could have gone more. We felt like we were being treated better for staying on property and were happy to buy in to DVC. Pun intended, that ship has sailed. On-property perks are all but gone, DME is gone, park ticket prices have gone through the roof and there are no special deals. Oh, then there's G+ and ILL - those extra costs really felt like a slap-in-the-face.
It's easy to blame Chapek and he IS to blame, but this is Iger's problem now, and he's been in charge long enough for the lack of changes back to the way it was, and even the recent decisions (like ILL for both 7DMT and TRON) to say, well, those are his. It's not enough for him to admit Disney is fleecing the very people who are holding up the pedestal on which they stand - there needs to be action, IMMEDIATE action.
We'll probably hang onto our contract long enough for the points to re-load and hopefully the price to rebound, but in all honesty, we are probably in camp @Wakey and we are out too.

they gave up parking fees.

and we're going to be able to park hop after 2 pm if you're an AP holder without having to check into your original park, so long as it isn't a weekend at the magic kingdom (I think I got that right).

Actually -- the parking fees were only for non-DVC or cash stays -- so that doesn't really help DVC members at all.

Carry on with the pitchforks!!!

 

[mustinjourney]

So I think what you're saying here, is that even though people are sick and tired of Disney's antics and leave, there are plenty of others who continue to go no matter what, and offsets the difference so the parks stay crowded? I can buy that.

there's also a lot of first timers always showing up -- and they have no idea what things used to be like -- so they do not have a baseline to compare it to.

But at some point -- and quite frankly I'm shocked it hasn't happened yet -- disney is going to price out even the first timers.

If a family of 4 wants to spend a week in a regular hotel room at a monorail resort, they're looking at close to $7000 in lodging -- $2800 in tickets -- $700 in genie+/ILL, and then food, souvenirs, memory maker, and other stuff.

That's over $11,000.

Throw in airfare and you're over $12,000.


That's a jaw dropping number.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Not selling the AP to DVC members is about the dumbest thing they could do. Discounted APs are basically the gateway drug to buying MORE points. And if you have to be a direct member to get the discounted AP, that just further drives more demand for direct purchases.

This is what happens when each corporate entity is only looking at their silo and there isn't someone taking a more holistic approach to the whole thing.

Been listening to Chad Pennycuff much? I don't disagree. But I'm not sure many DVC owners want APs. I certainly don't, living so far away. I'm willing to bet AP holding DVC members are a small percentage,...well, obviously more so now since they stopped selling them. But I agree. Having APs would prompt DVC members to go more, pushing them to want more points. I get it.

 

[mustinjourney]

But I don’t think Touring Plans has access to real data do they? Aren’t they still pretty much a guess using wait times?

I have been here 8 times in the last year and can tell you the parks are busy. So, if attendance is down it’s not significant in any way that it shows..walking around with lots of people.

That was my point. People are visiting and spending money. Resort discounts are for getting people to choose onsite vs offsite resorts and the summer ones were always like this,,,we were summer visitors because I was a teacher and we always got these deals..and better..

I still think parks were busier in January 2020. That was my last trip pre-covid -- and all of the lines were long everywhere. Even the FP line for Nemo was backed up and out of the queue.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

there's also a lot of first timers always showing up -- and they have no idea what things used to be like -- so they do not have a baseline to compare it to.

But at some point -- and quite frankly I'm shocked it hasn't happened yet -- disney is going to price out even the first timers.

If a family of 4 wants to spend a week in a regular hotel room at a monorail resort, they're looking at close to $7000 in lodging -- $2800 in tickets -- $700 in genie+/ILL, and then food, souvenirs, memory maker, and other stuff.

That's over $11,000.

Throw in airfare and you're over $12,000.


That's a jaw dropping number.

It is high. But the number of families out there with that kind of money, is also high.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I still think parks were busier in January 2020. That was my last trip pre-covid -- and all of the lines were long everywhere. Even the FP line for Nemo was backed up and out of the queue.

Could it be international tourists still haven't fully returned yet?

 

[mustinjourney]

Been listening to Chad Pennycuff much? I don't disagree. But I'm not sure many DVC owners want APs. I certainly don't, living so far away. I'm willing to bet AP holding DVC members are a small percentage,...well, obviously more so now since they stopped selling them. But I agree. Having APs would prompt DVC members to go more, pushing them to want more points. I get it.

I can only speak for myself personally -- but the allure of that $550 gold AP pass back in 2016 is what convinced me to add-on.

We had 150 VGF resale points. I quickly realized we wanted to go more than one time a year over the next few years, so I bought the minimum 25 points direct (BCV) to qualify for the AP. After that -- I bought another 130 VGF points since we would now need more points.

then a couple years later, I realized 25 BCV points wasn't enough -- so I bought another 25.

Then RIV came out and I bought another 150 of those -- b/c -- why not? I already had an AP, so might as well sneak in another trip or two a year.

We still have APs right now -- but at $900 renewal fee for each -- I'm really starting to question whether I want to keep paying that.

 

[RoseGold]

Not selling the AP to DVC members is about the dumbest thing they could do. Discounted APs are basically the gateway drug to buying MORE points. And if you have to be a direct member to get the discounted AP, that just further drives more demand for direct purchases.

But, you see, the goal isn't to sell more points. It's to sell full price park tickets.

 

[mustinjourney]

Could it be international tourists still haven't fully returned yet?

it's possible -- I hadn't seen nearly as many brazil tour groups -- although I did see a large one this past January. So they might be back.

 

[mustinjourney]

It is high. But the number of families out there with that kind of money, is also high.

true -- but people with really high net worths aren't usually disneyphiles.

 

[mustinjourney]

But, you see, the goal isn't to sell more points. It's to sell full price park tickets.

short term maximization of an extra $50 per day per guest vs $30,000 in hand.

Doesn't seem like a smart move. At least not long term.

But I'm not in charge, so what do I know.

 

[SL6827]

it's possible -- I hadn't seen nearly as many brazil tour groups -- although I did see a large one this past January. So they might be back.

What time frame in January? The beginning, the end?

 

[mustinjourney]

What time frame in January? The beginning, the end?

End of January -- usually the last week...although this year I crossed over Jan/Feb.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Been listening to Chad Pennycuff much? I don't disagree. But I'm not sure many DVC owners want APs. I certainly don't, living so far away. I'm willing to bet AP holding DVC members are a small percentage,...well, obviously more so now since they stopped selling them. But I agree. Having APs would prompt DVC members to go more, pushing them to want more points. I get it.

Living in So Cal, we own enough points for two 5-night stays in any 2BR in WDW, plus a shorter trip to Aulani every year. With a total of 10 nights in WDW, we only do maybe 6 or 7 theme park days every year. Our +/- number for AP's is probably around $900, so it's not a huge deal for us either way (I've found I park hop less and less as well, so I'll add a hopper option only on days we think we'll actually use it).. Bringing back a $900 AP wouldn't make me run out and buy another 200 points, that's for sure. We're not anti-AP by any stretch, if fact we all have Dream Keys at DLR, but only needing theme park access for 6 or so days a year doesn't make a lack of AP's a do or die issue for us.

I will say there is some convenience to just having the AP, and not needing to buy two separate 3-day passes every year, so I will give that nod to the AP.