So - Has the 2042 bubble burst with 19 years now left on the contracts? Look forward to everyone's thoughts!
With all the love here I'm just about to just on the bandwagon add my "7th mug" involving a certain 2042 "Epcot resort" - so I would hope not!
I do think prices will decline, but it will probably be a steady decline rather than a "crash". I also think we'll continue to see the price/year for these resorts go up over time. For example, if BRV is currently selling for around $100 with 18 years to go ($5.55/year) it may be $90 in 3 years ($6/year with 15 years to go), $70 in 8 years ($7/year with 10 years to go) and and perhaps $40 in 13 years ($8/year with 5 years to go). If this math materializes, which is a big "If," the current BRV owner loses $60 over 13 years, which is about $4.60/year rather than $5.55/year.
VB, HHI, OKW, and BRV aside, the way I've evolved my thinking about owning an "Epcot/HS Resort" is:
1) I can buy Riviera Direct and lose $50-$60/pt in "equity value" with 100% certainty just 10 days later, and maybe much more over time. To me, as much as we love the resort (and we do), that's a deal breaker. I'd rather try my luck at 7 months out or via waitlist using our direct points.
2) I can buy Riviera resale, but at current prices I might lose another $30-$50/pt if prices settle much lower in 6-8 years. I have my opinions, but nobody knows where things will end up. Moreover, that type of ownership would be highly inflexible with the resale restrictions, but at least it'd last for my great-grandkids to possibly enjoy one day. We already have plenty of direct and O14 points, so I generally am ok with this option, but I'd want to wait 6-8 years to be comfortable that supply is steady and I'm paying the actual "going rate".
3) I can buy a resale 2042 resort. I do think those are overpriced at current prices, but for these resorts I'm just a price taker. I will most likely lose 30-$50/pt in 6-8 years but I can live with that if it's a modest number of points and I get to enjoy them in my prime years before we are empty nesters. At that point I can decide whether to keep the points to expiration or swap/tradeup for Riviera resale which should have a robust resale market by then.