CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Heigh-Ho]

My view is that we have made very little progress with regard to a cure/treatment for covid. Almost weekly since this started there have been reports about some amazing result from this or that. Generally, those statements tend to be more wishful thinking, optimistic rhetoric and little scientific proof of success. They tend to fade into the background once they find out they really do not work as great as originally thought. Some people with covid get better on their own, so the fact they were given X and recover proves nothing. That is why clinical tests usually accepted study protocol are the only reliable way to determine if some treatment actually does anything.

I don't really follow your logic.

When you say "some people with covid get better on their own so the fact they were given X and recover proves nothing" really that's just a strange comment to make. Or at least a strange comment to make about COVID but not about anything else. For example if I have a headache it'll get better on it own eventually it'll go away, but I take an ibuprofen anyways. The ibuprofen helped the headache though so that I felt better and quicker. I would have gotten better on my own as in the headache would have gone away eventually but does it really prove nothing that I took ibuprofen and it helped?

I do believe we are more selective in our treatments over time. We initially thought to get people on ventilators and there was this whole nation-wide search for them with auto makers even stepping in to make them. Then we discovered that ventilators shouldn't be used for everyone, shouldn't be used for long-term unless really really needed. Plasma from prior infected with COVID patients has been helpful to other patients, they are doing more research on this. A few days ago the NIH expanded their trials into this but there have been news stories for patients out there where plasma has been quite beneficial to them. Without this happening the trials may not even be there.

In terms of a novel situation such as this it really is trial and error. We've seen that some treatments do work, not all work for a larger subset of people without the ability to research this. We're only 6-7 months into this. Normally we might have more time to take a treatment for an existing issue and study it. We're having to do the opposite either discovering that something has an effect and expanding that to be used with other patients or trying different things out and hoping to have enough time to study this with other patients. What you want is something that usually happens when there's an existing issue and there's time to investigate s.l.o.w.l.y something. I don't think we can have it both ways with this virus. You either want doctors to be trying a variety of things to see if they work or you want them to go through potentially years worth of studies (because that's what it would take more than likely) on treatments.

 

[sam_gordon]

No. We are confirming more cases now per day on average than we were when the death rate was at its high. In fact, in July, we were confirming THREE TIMES as many cases per day as we were in March. With 1/3 of the daily deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Really? You don't see a downward trend here since about the middle of July?

 

[Pea-n-Me]

They do in hamsters and non-human primates, so far. Research in humans is still ongoing, but promising.

https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/09/03/covid-19-vaccine-study-shows-severe-disease-preventable-in-hamsters

 

[Jonfw2]

Well, I guess your idea of 'fact' is different from mine. While there are large scale trials underway globally, there is NO evidence yet that any of these vaccines actually prevent covid and if you develop antibodies for how long they last in your system. Vaccine trials don't always result in success.

What we didn't know in March/April was that wearing a mask, don't touch your face, stay 6' away from others, avoid closed spaces were good ways to prevent this disease. Many people are following those recommendations, so clearly that has had an impact on the numbers getting infected/dying from covid. In addition, many businesses closed, people working from home, etc. has also had an impact. While major pro sports have restarted, few if any fans are allowed to be present. All of those things has had an impact on reducing the numbers and slowing the spread of covid.

The numbers have not dropped- we have more cases diagnosed daily now than we did in March/April.

And a fact is just a fact...the fact is that five now (as of today) trials in the US are in phase 3. And sorry, but there IS evidence they actually prevent Covid.

I truly don't understand your desire to deny all of this.

 

[Jonfw2]

Really? You don't see a downward trend here since about the middle of July?
View attachment 527994

Yes- you don't see that the new cases are still much higher than they were in March and April?

 

[mousefan73]

Yes- you don't see that the new cases are still much higher than they were in March and April?

In Mar/Apr Covid was just starting to spread. Cases got higher in in the summer because Covid spread nationwide and went undetected at how big the problem was in some states mainly due to lack of testing down south, focus was on NY and other areas that had large illness and deaths from March on. .. In Mar/Apr Covid hotspots were northern coastal cities and Chicago.. Then we went into lock-down. Two States with high populations ( TX and FL) did partial lock-downs and reopened bars etc... and a good portion of the population were not wearing masks WITH lack of testing starting in April. So Covid continued to spread rampant.. Shooting the numbers up starting in June..

I do not see the numbers going down to March levels in a while... Too much is open compared to March/April's lockdown that really brought numbers down along with a bigger community spread now.... But deaths are down thank God

 

[huskies90]

Mindboggling news from the White House today. Seems they are trying to ensure no one will trust the vaccine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics/trump-fda-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

No one? Not true. Trump supporters will trust anything he says and they will take the vaccine if he somehow pushes one through. Then, we will basically have an extended trial. We will then either quickly learn more about the vaccine or assuming things go well, will be on the path to start vaccinating the population.

My advise on all this? Don't trust what you see in political news media (CNN/Fox, etc). Trust your doctor. If my doctor recommends the vaccine, I will take it whenever it is approved. Tomorrow. Next month. Two years from now. Doctors are the most precautious and will value your safety over a malpractice suit every.single.day of the year.

 

[RamblingMad]

Really? You don't see a downward trend here since about the middle of July?
View attachment 527994

Cases were going down until schools started reopening. Of course, they didn’t reopen across the country at the same time, so now we’re seeing outbreaks tied to schools. These will have to work their way through until we reach a normalized rate of infection with schools open. Or schools will close.

 

[huskies90]

Yes- you don't see that the new cases are still much higher than they were in March and April?

You can't compare anything from today to March/April. We had no idea how many cases we had back then due to lack of testing. Heck my boss was in CT in February and was sick as a dog. He tested positive for the anti bodies well after the fact. This thing was well spread here on the East coast before anyone even knew or believed it was out there. I think this is the main reason NY, NJ, CT's numbers have been so good and are still good now. There is a higher level of immunity here. Heck, there is a good chance pretty much everyone in NYC had exposure in March/April. Can you imagine what the case numbers would look like if we tested then like we are today?

 

[sam_gordon]

Cases were going down until schools started reopening. Of course, they didn’t reopen across the country at the same time, so now we’re seeing outbreaks tied to schools. These will have to work their way through until we reach a normalized rate of infection with schools open. Or schools will close.

The massive increase in July was because school started reopening?

 

[Jonfw2]

You can't compare anything from today to March/April. We had no idea how many cases we had back then due to lack of testing. Heck my boss was in CT in February and was sick as a dog. He tested positive for the anti bodies well after the fact. This thing was well spread here on the East coast before anyone even knew or believed it was out there. I think this is the main reason NY, NJ, CT's numbers have been so good and are still good now. There is a higher level of immunity here. Heck, there is a good chance pretty much everyone in NYC had exposure in March/April. Can you imagine what the case numbers would look like if we tested then like we are today?

There is no doubt that increased testing was responsible for some of the summer increase. But most definitely not all of it. The percentage of positive tests also increased dramatically during this time period.

And regardless, the point stands: deaths have dropped substantially.

 

[Pyotr]

DeSantis just announced that Florida will enter Phase 3 today.

 

[aggiedog]

Regarding lower death rates, it's multifactorial. We know more about how to, and how not to, treat severe disease. Less ventilator, add steroids, remdesivir (though that is only available at hospitals with ICU's, at least where I am.) The average age of coronavirus positive patient and those with actual illness has steadily declined from the onset of the pandemic. The largest demographic of new cases is now 20-30 year olds. They have fewer comorbidities and are less likely to get severely ill or die.

 

[Southernmiss]

I don't trust the percent positive test rate as a measure of anything.

In many places, tests still aren't encouraged for just anyone to take. There's a list of criteria to qualify for testing-exposure, symptoms, some professions, etc. I do not meet any of the criteria for testing and could not just go ask for a test. Most all of those getting tested here have exposure and symptoms and a good number will have the virus.

The rate of new cases and then hospitalizations, icu beds used, ventilators, and deaths are much more telling.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The rate of new cases and then hospitalizations, icu beds used, ventilators, and deaths are much more telling.

This is actually one of the reasons the school districts in my county have bounced back and forth between using the state's recommended gating criteria for schools or using the county's gating criteria.

The county measures it by previous 14 days show X% positive tests and steady or decreasing or increasing new cases.

The state measures it by Student Absenteeism based on building level Average Daily Attendance in 2019-20 (i.e. 95%), 2 week County percent positive case rate (% positive tests/all tests performed), 2 week cumulative County incidence rate (# new cases/100K over prior 2 weeks), Trend in County incidence rate and Local/referring hospital capacity.

Also the state uses a different calculation for percent positive. The state indicates all tests performed. An example from one of the school districts that switched to using the state's gating criteria is the following: "if an individual takes the test 20 times and tests negative each time they include all 20 tests" The county only counts it as one test – no matter how many times an individual takes the test. Because the criteria states percent positive tests/all tests performed, the state information was used."

You might think having more included is better but sometimes because of what the different color learning modes (green,yellow,red,remote for county and green,yellow,orange, red for the state) mean and what is allowable/not allowable in each isn't the same and thus something that wouldn't be allowed at the county's level of gating criteria would be allowed at the state level. I know the hospitalizations was used as one of the push for allowing fall sports in the school districts.

 

[RamblingMad]

The massive increase in July was because school started reopening?

No. July was caused by reopening too fast in some states and counties.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

No. July was caused by reopening too fast in some states and counties.

This isn't really the case as a general note. The rhetoric is "you reopened too quickly that's why" but that doesn't explain places that were open some for months already and didn't experience a surge then but rather later. What does help on that front in part is learning about the different strains. With a more contagious strain activities that occurred before weren't as large of an issue but now are. Other things as well such as testing capacities that allowed for asymptomatic testing, targeted testing allowances when testing supplies allowed for that, increased gatherings of course (but that isn't related to reopening necessarily just depends on how a state approaches gathering limits) and so much more.

The phrase "reopening too quickly" is just way too simplistic for places at large but it does make for catchy headlines. Getting into the nitty gritty details often doesn't happen.

 

[RamblingMad]

This isn't really the case as a general note. The rhetoric is "you reopened too quickly that's why" but that doesn't explain places that were open some for months already and didn't experience a surge then but rather later. What does help on that front in part is learning about the different strains. With a more contagious strain activities that occurred before weren't as large of an issue but now are. Other things as well such as testing capacities that allowed for asymptomatic testing, targeted testing allowances when testing supplies allowed for that, increased gatherings of course (but that isn't related to reopening necessarily just depends on how a state approaches gathering limits) and so much more.

The phrase "reopening too quickly" is just way too simplistic for places at large but it does make for catchy headlines. Getting into the nitty gritty details often doesn't happen.

It’s not too simplistic. We reopened way too fast in AZ. This required us then to have a county mask mandate and close down the bars again, which eventually resulted in us pushing our positivity rate from 20ish percent down to 5%. It was really that simple. And new research does show that bars and indoor dining are statistically significant for spread. Check out the latest MedCram video.

The push to open fast is purely economic driven, which is due to our lack of sufficient safety nets to get us through this pandemic. They’re poorly structured to deal with this event.

 

[sam_gordon]

No. July was caused by reopening too fast in some states and counties.

But cases have continued trending down since July. So why do you claim there's an increase because schools are open?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It’s not too simplistic. We reopened way too fast in AZ. This required us then to have a county mask mandate and close down the bars again, which eventually resulted in us pushing our positivity rate from 20ish percent down to 5%. It was really that simple. And new research does show that bars and indoor dining are statistically significant for spread. Check out the latest MedCram video.

The push to open fast is purely economic driven, which is due to our lack of sufficient safety nets to get us through this pandemic. They’re poorly structured to deal with this event.

Throughout all of this you've harped about states reopening too quickly but you never really go into much detail beyond bars and stuff. You often keep a high level over view of the situation. I find myself actually looking at the data points, looking to help shed light on why an area when up at a certain time but didn't before. You also talk a lot about MedCram. The thing about speaking about generalities is just that. When someone points to an area that has a high rate of increases I actually go look up that given area, I go into looking for reasons why; I don't expect people to do that but I'm naturally curious and that's just what I do. In my own area I look for these details and I feel like one should do this for the area you live in because it directly affects you. A youtube video, even done in the medical field and even while not being a bad source to go to, isn't going to really give me that. I listen to my regional area's hospital system's daily video updates (I don't watch them daily but I do keep up on them) though and keep up with the updates for my region as well as at the state level though I don't look at that nearly as frequently as I used to (partly burn out of all things COVID). Maybe you do this and apologies in advance if you do and can know from your direct area that the large cases are only due to reopening too quickly and not about anything else.


I was reading earlier about a study done in Houston. The information was the following:
"Many different strains of the virus entered Houston initially, but when the city moved from a small initial wave in March to a much larger outbreak in late June, almost every coronavirus sample contained a particular mutation on the virus’ surface that had previously been found in cases in Europe. Patients with that strain of coronavirus carried more virus particles than other people, meaning they were probably more infectious, the study found. Researchers say the rise of this contagious strain of the virus may have driven up the infection rate in the Houston area, which jumped from an average of around 200 new Covid-19 cases per day to more than 2,400." Additionally this seemingly more contagious strain was studied in the UK in the spring also possibly responsible for increases in cases there.

But usually it's "well they just opened too quickly". You can have a slow, gradual, phased reopening and still result in higher case load if you've got a more contagious strain, your efforts aren't going to do as much as they would if you had a less contagious strain. And that's just one of the reasons. You can have a slow, gradual, phased reopening and have a superspreader event such that is that Maine wedding.

I don't disagree with you that spots here and there may have opened too quickly, I disagree with the generalization that that alone is responsible for large number of cases or at least that surely it must be because they opened too quickly.