As we've seen: no renewal discount. But even with it, that still would have been a $100 increase. Even with it being the first in two years, it still follows the $270 increase from the equivalent pass two years ago.
I really would have rather seen a payment plan eliminated. But I'm guessing the Disney team that figured this stuff out decided that that would have driven away more AP holders than they wanted with that tactic. A price increase, but still having payment plans they likely believe will still keep enough around.
It is definitely a delicate balance. I still hold to my theory the 13 month promotion was because the elimination of the Premium and replacing it with a pass that was $270 more was because they raised things too fast and lost more AP holders than intended. And now it seems things either recovered enough they feel comfortable or they're confident in the attendance numbers leading up to Galaxy's Edge opening that big increases and changes do not concern them.
I will be shocked if there isn't another increase this year. Possibly around October? Mid summer? Maybe even a little earlier. I expect it to happen for sure in time to catch those that would have passes good during Galaxy's Edge opening. Also wouldn't be surprised at another ticket increase. There is a point where they'll switch to a December 31, 2019 first use expiration.
I think the only way I could even justify a renewal without renewal discount to my mom would be if I'd moved to SoCal and we could go on a whim. She is not going to go for a renewal this time with it being $160 more than we just paid to renew in December. The $100 was going to be bad enough, lol!
My pass doesn't expire until the end of January next year so I've got most of the year still at least.