December DVC Sales Tumble

[Lorana]

What flip flopping?

Three (forgot to include VDH) are new resorts. And two are add ons to existing resorts that didn’t have resale restrictions. There is no inconsistency.

I think they mean that they chose to make those part of existing associations rather than as new associations, therefore bypassing the “resale restrictions going forward.” To less knowledgeable buyers who don’t understand the existing vs new associations, it will look like some new resorts had restrictions and others did not.

As an existing PVB owner I’ll be very happy if the new tower is part of the same association, but I confess it will feel like they can’t make up their minds as to whether or not to enforce resale restrictions or not. I’m betting they worried with VGF and PVB that it would hurt sales at flagship monorail resorts if they made new associations with restrictions when there are existing associations without them. Or at least cause owner confusion.

 

[TinkB278]

Yeah, speaking of the flip flopping, that is what cured my addonitis. All the speculated changes, in addition to such a great length of time without updates on the new poly, I’ve totally lost my desire to buy more points, which is crazy!! Adding on (particularly at the new poly) was all I could think of for a time. Now I’ve started to think of all the other ways I could spend that money, and it’s made me think “I don’t really NEED more points”.

Also, as an aside regarding the above RIV/VGF debate, I prefer the Skyliner to monorail and personally see that as a big advantage for RIV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I don't know what sort of data DVC has internally about the help or harm of resale restrictions. But there seems to be ample evidence that they don't particularly hurt sales in a 1:1 comparison. The biggest factor that clearly does matter to buyers is price.

This. There continues (and I'm guessing there always will) to be an ongoing narrative of how restrictions on resale points for Riviera have depressed direct sales and resale prices. When this debate flares back up, the VGF is invariably used as the benchmark against which RIV is measured, which would be fine if the comparison was based on more than just price or resale restrictions. There are HUGE differences between these two resorts that could impact on sales, other than restrictions. All DVC resorts have different, varying price points on the resale market based on ALL the variables, which makes some resorts more expensive than others. I do think resale restrictions have an impact, I just think there are other variables that are just as impactful.

I can tell you who doesn't think resale restrictions significantly harm direct sales. DVD. If they did, they'd remove them from RIV and wouldn't have added them to VDH and CFW, and I still believe the new Poly Tower will also have them.

 

[CastAStone]

They have real silverware at QS over there as well

And the food actually tastes good. My wife and I were comparing the menu at Galactic Grill to Starlight Ray’s last night and it’s downright depressing to east coasters like us.

 

[Lorana]

And the food actually tastes good. My wife and I were comparing the menu at Galactic Grill to Starlight Ray’s last night and it’s downright depressing to east coasters like us.

Yeah, there’s a reason we wanted more VGC points to visit Disneyland more often…. We love WDW, don’t get me wrong, but we had forgotten how much we also love the original park.

 

[walt34]

I can tell you who doesn't think resale restrictions significantly harm direct sales. DVD. If they did, they'd remove them from RIV and wouldn't have added them to VDH and CFW, and I still believe the new Poly Tower will also have them.

They might also think that restrictions do have an impact but it is a price worth paying for DVD.

I recall the conversation I had when buying VGF: I told my guide that I preferred VGF over RIV and he asked why and suggested himself it was because of the restrictions (it was one of my reasons but not the only one). He wouldn't have said that if he had not heard this story before.

I believe restrictions are part of the long game for DVD (having a less competitive resale proposition) and they are carefully monitoring, whether it hurts them in the short run or not. If Poly2 actually joins the old association (I'm not convinced yet), it would be another move to balance out restrictions.

 

[BeachClub2014]

They might also think that restrictions do have an impact but it is a price worth paying for DVD.

I recall the conversation I had when buying VGF: I told my guide that I preferred VGF over RIV and he asked why and suggested himself it was because of the restrictions (it was one of my reasons but not the only one). He wouldn't have said that if he had not heard this story before.

I believe restrictions are part of the long game for DVD (having a less competitive resale proposition) and they are carefully monitoring, whether it hurts them in the short run or not. If Poly2 actually joins the old association (I'm not convinced yet), it would be another move to balance out restrictions.

I understand this. It would be naive to think otherwise. My point continues to be that other variables are just as important, if not more important, than restrictions. We have zero interest in buying VGF, PVB, or the new Poly Tower for reasons other than price or restrictions, and I don't think that we are all that unique in our thinking.

 

[Brian Noble]

They might also think that restrictions do have an impact but it is a price worth paying for DVD.

DVD cares about one thing, and one thing only: Profit from sales of points. This profit is measured quarter to quarter, so there is quite a bit of incentive to think in the short term, not the long term. Heck most of the people making decisions at DVD about restrictions (or not) won't even be working in that role five or ten years from now, and might not even be with the company.

Yes, there are some people who will balk at them, and decide not to buy. But there are also people who might otherwise buy resale who get bit by the FOMO bug when they realize they either can't stay at the Shiny New Resort (or they can only stay there) if they buy resale points.

DVD's actions tell us they believe that restrictions help them in the short run. There isn't much other reason to do it.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I guess we got lucky with attractive direct pricing at O14 resorts this past year (AKV and VGF) so we have some direct points with access to new resorts.

Just my opinion and not to speak out of turn, but for lots of us that have owned for a while, I think restrictions are a hard pass, no matter the resort.

Yes, this is part of the point I wanted to make, you guys say it perfectly. If you were lucky enough to have bought into DVC before 2019 or have direct points that you got at a great price, than you got to be part of something amazing. (As an aside, being a millennial really sucks sometimes, we’re always the last to things and miss the good times- old enough to have witnessed the golden days, too young and poor to do anything about it haha)

I completely understand your point of view, and I might have felt the same had I also got an amazing price/owned for a while, but buying a timeshare at it’s high isn’t like buying Apple stock in the 90s (although some of you original Grand Cal owners got pretty close for a while ). It’s incredible that the resale market has retained its value so well, but I’d wager that the average buyer is much less aware of resale value and the effects of restrictions, it’s not really a consideration for many when buying DVC and DVD has shifted their target audience to the younger, less knowledgeable group who won’t really know the difference because they never experienced it. I am painfully aware of how much value I’ve missed out on by only becoming a member this past year and yet I’m still purchasing my little contracts and considering more and more direct points, just like DVD was hoping.

But like you said @DanCali the 2060s are still awhile away so we can all still enjoy the ghost of the golden era of DVC for some time yet and I guess that is enough for a lot of people.

 

[walt34]

DVD cares about one thing, and one thing only: Profit from sales of points. This profit is measured quarter to quarter, so there is quite a bit of incentive to think in the short term, not the long term. Heck most of the people making decisions at DVD about restrictions (or not) won't even be working in that role five or ten years from now, and might not even be with the company.

I find the - for DVD beneficial - short term effect more questionable than the longterm effect:

You have argued in other postings that guides don't talk about resale and most direct buyers are not aware of resale. If this is true, my first exposure to restrictions as a direct buyer will be when they get me to sign on the information sheet. Are you sure that the realisation, that OG14 resale customers won't get access to RIV is a stronger incentive at this point than the realisation, that my points are restricted to RIV when I might want sell them, are a disincentive? Your argument is of course that people at this point don't think about selling but still... it raises questions.

The long term effect is easier to see: the more resale is restricted (as more and more new resorts have restrictions) and people who consider resale are confronted with these restrictions, the easier it becomes to sell direct instead. It weakens the competition.

 

[intamin]

"Over time" could take decades with some of the O14 resorts expiring in the 2060s. I actually think those remaining O14 resorts after 2042 will be highly sought after and selling at a premium if everything else by then is restricted.

But even if these restrictions were the new norm, what could also become the new norm is permanently lower resale prices under those conditions, just like most other timeshares. Since the product is so different, resale prices may be 20% to 40% of direct pricing instead of what we've been used to with the relatively unrestricted resale contracts.

It really could go either way. I don't know, personally one of the big reasons I swap currently is to try to get into BC/BW. I know they're pretty small associations so maybe it won't affect the value that much but at the same time knowing I can't book those resorts at all would affect how much I value resale and not in a good way but maybe others don't really care about those resorts.

2042: BC/BW/BR/VB/HHI
2054: SSR
2057: AKL(J/K), OKW
2060: VGC, edit: *forgot BLT* :X
2062: AUL
2064: VGF
2066: PVB
2068: CCV

Sorry that was more for me so I could mentally visualize which resorts are gone and when. So basically after 2042 we're down to 9 of those I'd probably be willing to stay in 8 of them? So still a decent amount of resorts but by that point unless it was a great deal I'd probably just want more points that are unrestricted so I don't have to worry about it being limited to those 7 personally. It's obviously an incredibly subjective choice based on a whole bunch of factors like age, family and etc. Also if you simply don't care about staying anywhere else it matters less but I also don't think resale value of non-restricted resorts will skyrocket or anything like that. But /shrug what do I know.

 

[Lorana]

I understand this. It would be naive to think otherwise. My point continues to be that other variables are just as important, if not more important, than restrictions. We have zero interest in buying VGF, PVB, or the new Poly Tower for reasons other than price or restrictions, and I don't think that we are all that unique in our thinking.

Certainly. I ended up buying RIV in 2020 despite saying I didn't want a resort that would have resale restrictions, for 2 reasons: wanting an Epcot area resort (that went beyond 2042) and incentives (during that summer fire sale, I could bundle my RIV purchase with my CCV guaranteed weeks and bump into a new incentive category, lowering the per point cost for all of the contracts I was buying.

Which goes back to the ultimate motivator: price. ;-)

 

[Lorana]

Yes, this is part of the point I wanted to make, you guys say it perfectly. If you were lucky enough to have bought into DVC before 2019 or have direct points that you got at a great price, than you got to be part of something amazing. (As an aside, being a millennial really sucks sometimes, we’re always the last to things and miss the good times- old enough to have witnessed the golden days, too young and poor to do anything about it haha)

I feel you on this (though I'm a late Gen-Xer / Oregon Trailer myself). When we finally felt we could buy into DVC, bam, the O14 restrictions and no access to member benefits had just rolled out to resale while we were contract shopping. It's one reason we bought both resale and direct when we bought in.

I guess we got lucky with attractive direct pricing at O14 resorts this past year (AKV and VGF) so we have some direct points with access to new resorts. I'm totally fine with taking my chances at 7 months or waitlisting. With Riviera's points charts, preferred view doesn't usually sell out at 7 months anyway.

Let me tell you, I told myself I would stop watching incentives and this board in 2023 to save my poor wallet, and I therefore missed the AKV incentives and are definitely kicking myself now, as AKV is our second-favorite-resort and I absolutely would have bought ~200 direct then and sold back some of our resale contracts. Ah, well.

 

[DanCali]

Also if you simply don't care about staying anywhere else it matters less but I also don't think resale value of non-restricted resorts will skyrocket or anything like that. But /shrug what do I know.

I think you forgot to include BLT on your list (2060) which makes it 9 resorts, although I also call it O8 resorts because I forget about OKWe.

I try to think about someone like myself (relatively knowledgeable about resale before buying into DVC) having the following options post 2042:

Option 1: Buy direct from DVC at whatever the "new resorts" might be (probably restricted versions of BC, BW, BR) at $300-$350/point, or whatever the prevailing direct prices might be in 18 years, with the ability to use those points anywhere in the system at 15-20 resorts for 45-50 years.

Option 2: Buy resale at one of the O9 WDW resorts I might really like, and have about 15-20 years to use it as a home resort or also potentially trade into 7-8 other nice resorts at 7 months out, including DL and Hawaii.

Option 3: Buy resale at a restricted resort I might really like, and use it only there year after year. Possibly trade via Interval to other timeshares. Maybe rent out points for cash and use the cash to rent other DVC resorts.

I don't know if the prices of resorts available under Option 2 would skyrocket, or the ones available under Option 3 would crater. But there is a substantial difference in functionality, flexibility and convenience of the DVC ownership between those options, so there should be a substantial difference in prices too. I have no idea what the actual resale prices will be in 2042, but I'll be very surprised if RIV was anywhere near the price of BLT despite the 10 extra years it has.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

The bigger issue for me is that restrictions are the new norm for DVC..when it suits them.

I think they mean that they chose to make those part of existing associations rather than as new associations, therefore bypassing the “resale restrictions going forward.” To less knowledgeable buyers who don’t understand the existing vs new associations, it will look like some new resorts had restrictions and others did not.

As an existing PVB owner I’ll be very happy if the new tower is part of the same association, but I confess it will feel like they can’t make up their minds as to whether or not to enforce resale restrictions or not. I’m betting they worried with VGF and PVB that it would hurt sales at flagship monorail resorts if they made new associations with restrictions when there are existing associations without them. Or at least cause owner confusion.

Agreed, I’m also an existing PVB owner and where it would be great if I could use my points at 11mos at the tower, I also didn’t buy in for the tower. Maybe I take the whole “expect nothing more than 11mo priority at your home resort” a little too seriously. Everything else has been fantastic extras in my mind.

When I purchased RIV, I was under the impression that restrictions were the way forward and regardless of having loopholes and Florida legal allowance to keep BPK and the tower as add-ons to existing associations, it was still a choice made by DVD, not a requirement. And inarguably, it’s a more member friendly choice, sure, but it does muddy up their decision to add restrictions to some but not all new resorts depending on what loopholes they find and creates a greater atmosphere of doubt and uncertainty. I don’t care that there are resale restrictions on RIV, I hope I never have to sell or worry about that but if I do, then so be it, I probably wouldn’t have purchased a timeshare to begin with if I was really worried about the future of it all.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Also, as an aside regarding the above RIV/VGF debate, I prefer the Skyliner to monorail and personally see that as a big advantage for RIV.

100%. Sometimes I feel a bit guilty disliking the monorail as much as I do but I go out of my way to avoid it. I mean she looks beautiful and adds so much to the overall aesthetic of the area so I wouldn’t change it lol but I much prefer the boats to the monorail in the MK area. And the skyliner above them all.

Although, I would have loved it if they could have added canals to the Riviera so they could have also had friendship boat access, for the times when the Skyliner was down or for those who have a fear of heights, that would have been amazing. And I know Venice isn’t part of the European Riviera (it’s close enough for a European-inspired hotel haha) but imagine if they had faux gondoliers attached to the outside of the boats and you just see some gondolier lead boats paddling their way around the lake? What a vibe, they could have all my money at that point.

 

[intamin]

I think you forgot to include BLT on your list (2060) which makes it 9 resorts, although I also call it O8 resorts because I forget about OKWe.

I try to think about someone like myself (relatively knowledgeable about resale before buying into DVC) having the following options post 2042:

Option 1: Buy direct from DVC at whatever the "new resorts" might be (probably restricted versions of BC, BW, BR) at $300-$350/point, or whatever the prevailing direct prices might be in 18 years, with the ability to use those points anywhere in the system at 15-20 resorts for 45-50 years.

Option 2: Buy resale at one of the O9 WDW resorts I might really like, and have about 15-20 years to use it as a home resort or also potentially trade into 7-8 other nice resorts at 7 months out, including DL and Hawaii.

Option 3: Buy resale at a restricted resort I might really like, and use it only there year after year. Possibly trade via Interval to other timeshares. Maybe rent out points for cash and use the cash to rent other DVC resorts.

I don't know if the prices of resorts available under Option 2 would skyrocket, or the ones available under Option 3 would crater. But there is a substantial difference in functionality, flexibility and convenience of the DVC ownership between those options, so there should be a substantial difference in prices too. I have no idea what the actual resale prices will be in 2042, but I'll be very surprised if RIV was anywhere near the price of BLT despite the 10 extra years it has.

Woops yeah I did, sorry was doing it from memory LOL!

Regarding the price of BLT resale compared to RIV yeah I do expect BLT to be higher but I’m not sure if it’ll be a huge difference. At that point the charts of BC/BW will likely be significantly higher and RIV’s charts may look to be the better value as crazy as that is to think about. MK area is kind of saturated with BLT, VGF, Poly/Poly2 and CCV/BRV compared to the Epcot area with BC, BW and RIV. Idk all in all very interesting to think about and I don’t think there’s really a good way to predict what’s going to happen. Just buy where will actually make your family happy and allow you to achieve your vacation goals.

 

[Bearval]

You know, I keep seeing this (and BTW, not saying you are wrong at all), but where it strikes me as odd is, if the cash side of this is so great, why even make this tower DVC at all? Surely Disney makes more off of cash bookings via WDTC than they do off of DVC...

It helps make the resort a little more recession proof. They don't have to worry about trying to get the whole resort booked when they have DVC members footing most of the costs of upkeep.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I'll be very surprised if RIV was anywhere near the price of BLT despite the 10 extra years it has.

Woops yeah I did, sorry was doing it from memory LOL!

Regarding the price of BLT resale compared to RIV yeah I do expect BLT to be higher but I’m not sure if it’ll be a huge difference. At that point the charts of BC/BW will likely be significantly higher and RIV’s charts may look to be the better value as crazy as that is to think about. MK area is kind of saturated with BLT, VGF, Poly/Poly2 and CCV/BRV compared to the Epcot area with BC, BW and RIV. Idk all in all very interesting to think about and I don’t think there’s really a good way to predict what’s going to happen. Just buy where will actually make your family and allow you to achieve your vacation goals.

I actually think BLT won’t hold up as well to RIV but only because of what you said about over-saturation of the area, it is the least thematically interesting of the bunch and the one with the shortest expiration (in the MK area). I know some people really love it and maybe they do a stellar refurb that gives it some new life but in its current state, I’d choose any of the other 3 MK resorts and most others if I’m totally honest, before BLT.

 

[Lorana]

but I much prefer the boats to the monorail in the MK area. And the skyliner above them all.

Although, I would have loved it if they could have added canals to the Riviera so they could have also had friendship boat access, for the times when the Skyliner was down or for those who have a fear of heights, that would have been amazing.

the boats are our favorite way to go, which adds to why we like CCV/BarV so much (that and we love its theme and somewhat seclusion). We love the boat at BCV to HS. We do love the Skyliner, but if Disney had put in a cabal with a boat option, we’d be *ecstatic.*