Nothing with the dissolving of Reedy Creek changes taxes, for now. It's more of a scripted "Real World" drama, or "The Bachelor", etc.
Florida is dissolving some special districts that were never re-ratified when Florida's constitution was ratified; thus they need dissolved and reestablished... especially considering that the reasons some had been created are no longer valid at all (Example: Disney never built its planned "Improvement District" community named Tomorrow, thus doesn't warrant the nuclear plant zoning nor other "improvement district" benefits. Dropping Reedy has been an ongoing need, and FL first studied this more than a decade ago.
The wording of the Apr.22,22 bill dissolves 5 districts in FL, and allows through June 2023 to renegotiate a different State "special district", reauthorized in a way that makes it in line with current provisions of the FL Constitution. And no nuclear plants, nor blanket zoning bypasses. Or it may also be a new county MSTU, where tax is based on the assessed property value to address capital improvements that typically require continued maintenance. With either tax authority, police and emergency medical services will probably have improved access to park situations. Disney's current municipal debt DOES NOT go away nor shift to Orange county families... it will be assumed by the new tax authority and payable to them.
Former tax breaks given to Disney outside the RCID (the $500-mil+ lasting through 2040) will of course not be changed. The taxes that WILL change are those that Disney currently pays to RCID. Those terms will be altered when the new district is formed.
Disney won't be "picking up and moving". Disney debt "won't be transferred to Orlando families". Disney (hopefully) won't be discarding its brands of wholesome family entertainment nor picketing outside of Kindergarten classrooms. There is typically a satisfactory "medium" space found within all the fear/anger stories.
I'm most interested in the financial aspects of recent events, of which Reedy Creek dissolving has almost no effect at all. The much bigger challenges are:
#1 --
Disney+ streaming weakness, Content is expensive. Competition is strong.
#2 -- Brand disatisfaction -- Disney films not the happy magical place or yore, if parents have to involve sexual/gender discussions during films/park visits.
#3 -- In-park disatisfaction (app works poorly, it schedules time-conflicts or extensive walking), rides break down or operating only half-capacity, have to waste park time at I.T booths for refunds. Food/beverage $$$ EXTREMELY high.
I believe #3 will be a stunning surprise. It will take beyond this spring and summer for people to show their true disatisfaction with the all-day I.T work needed during your vacation. Since summer vacations are already scheduled, the revenue generated from all these pent-up visitors plus all the
Genie+/$ILL add-ons will be cash cows for the Q1 and Q2 and Q3 reports. Visitors will taper quickly in the fall as recession + savings used up + food inflation + in-park disatisfaction rises.
I've no clue about Q1 streaming, I suspect it dropped because of Ukraine/Russia but perhaps was replaced elsewhere? Q2 streaming willl disappoint. Q3/Q4 park visits will disappoint. Cruises for Q1/2/3/4 remains to be seen.
The only thing we know for certain is that Disney is using money previously distributed to shareholders as dividends for LOBBYING purposes instead. And that is NOT cool with me.
I have a very small long position, will try to sell ASAP by averaging down and selling covered calls. I had originally purchased this thinking Disney would be a stalwart stock, but I've reassessed. Will be happy with a barely-profitable exit from the stock, and older happy memories of WDW.
