DVC Room Availability Limited

[Brian Noble]

Because you'd have the opposite driver as well - in a good economy, who cares if you waste points - the people who waste points become even less concerned about using them. Which would create balance against wasting points because you can't afford to go.

I don't see this as likely. But, we are both guessing. Either way, DVC is not the only system that is seeing availability tighten over the past few years, so there is something macroscopic going on.

 

[SL6827]

Have no idea when another recession will hit, but it will eventually hit. It will be interesting to see how much availability opens up when that happens. It could start next month or we could have another 4-5 years of a booming economy. I know we started going to Disney during a time of recession and had no idea what we got to experience in the early 2000s was not really the norm. The extremely low crowds, the deals on the resorts, is now just unbelievable compared to what we have today. But I will say that the stock market and my 401K has skyrocketed to levels now that are unbelievable verses what it was in the last 8-10 years. The numbers there don't lie. So you have to take the good with the bad.

That being said, I don't know if we will be as blessed to visit during the next correction or not. Who knows what the future holds? The next recession may or may not be near as bad as the Great Recession, so Disney's crowd levels may or may not be effected as much. But like I have said before, the economy is just one of several factors that is affecting what is available.

 

[crisi]

I don't see this as likely. But, we are both guessing. Either way, DVC is not the only system that is seeing availability tighten over the past few years, so there is something macroscopic going on.

Realistic macroscopic factors likely to have a larger effect than the economy in a fixed point use em or loose em timeshare system:

1. Increase in renters, ease in rental process, and increase in renter knowledge requesting rooms earlier.
2. Increase in owner knowledge - as you get locked out of the room you want, you book earlier
3. Increase in walking
4. More owners with a small number of points for the purpose of booking studios decreasing studio availability (one bedrooms are still not a problem).
5. More owners across more resorts increasing competition at in demand small resorts resorts (SSR studios aren't a problem most of the year seven months out. Nor are VAKL studios)
6. Studios moving from sleeping four to five which increases the demand for studios.
7. DVC lowering the point buy in minimum - increasing the demand for studios.

All those are going to have much bigger effects than the idea that a significantly larger number - a number that makes it noticeable to average bookings - get used and not wasted in an up economy and that Disney does no adjusting for a noticeable variation in their cash bookings.

Finally, I have perceived in increase in the postings of "there is nothing four months out" that has other DISers checking and saying "what are you talking about, there is plenty four months out." As more rooms are added to the system, there are fewer rooms proportionally at VGF - and VGF is going to be harder and harder to book seven months out. For those people who perceive "nothing" is available when there are studios out at SSR or VAKL or OKW and one bedrooms at other resorts - yeah, availability is tightening, and that has nothing to do with the economy - other than DVC continues to sell points and the more non home resort points are trying for those few VGF rooms, the harder they are to get.

 

[crisi]

Have no idea when another recession will hit, but it will eventually hit. It will be interesting to see how much availability opens up when that happens. It could start next month or we could have another 4-5 years of a booming economy. I know we started going to Disney during a time of recession and had no idea what we got to experience in the early 2000s was not really the norm. The extremely low crowds, the deals on the resorts, is now just unbelievable compared to what we have today. But I will say that the stock market and my 401K has skyrocketed to levels now that are unbelievable verses what it was in the last 8-10 years. The numbers there don't lie. So you have to take the good with the bad.

That being said, I don't know if we will be as blessed to visit during the next correction or not. Who knows what the future holds? The next recession may or may not be near as bad as the Great Recession, so Disney's crowd levels may or may not be effected as much. But like I have said before, the economy is just one of several factors that is affecting what is available.

For reference, that's when we bought DVC. And then had DVC through the late 2000's Great Recession. Rooms were still hard to book. Easier than they are now for various reasons - like you had to call, no on line booking, you had to call day by day if you wanted to book exactly at eleven months - which we used to do for BWV standard and Boardwalk view. There were fewer points overall in the system, so it was easier at seven months to get something. People hadn't done 50 point add ons at BWV/BCV for F&W and perks, which has tightened availability.

Crowd levels during a recession do go way down - recessions are my favorite time to be at Disney, not being a crowd person. But DVCers behave differently. They have the points - so they use them and skip the parks. Or they rent them - if you can at least get dues out of renting your points (and don't have a loan) you break even and can hold through bad times. Or they give them to someone less cash strapped. Lots of DVC members aren't too impacted by a recession - they are retired - there isn't a job to loose, and while the market may be down, smart people manage their money to compensate for market fluctuations. Others are in recession proof jobs - the medical professionals in my family have never worried during a recession. Lots of DVC members live within driving distances - the points are there, they'll be eating anyway, and they have time if they lost a job - might as well spend it hanging by the pool at Disney. Points that are foreclosed on (and there are plenty of those in a recession) do not become points available for members to book - those points get owned by Disney and Disney does cash rentals on them - or if the economy is really bad, may close down floors or sections of a resort to lower their fixed costs (I don't think that has happened with DVC resorts, its happened with cash resorts).

 

[SL6827]

Realistic macroscopic factors likely to have a larger effect than the economy in a fixed point use em or loose em timeshare system:

1. Increase in renters, ease in rental process, and increase in renter knowledge requesting rooms earlier.
2. Increase in owner knowledge - as you get locked out of the room you want, you book earlier
3. Increase in walking
4. More owners with a small number of points for the purpose of booking studios decreasing studio availability (one bedrooms are still not a problem).
5. More owners across more resorts increasing competition at in demand small resorts resorts (SSR studios aren't a problem most of the year seven months out. Nor are VAKL studios)
6. Studios moving from sleeping four to five which increases the demand for studios.
7. DVC lowering the point buy in minimum - increasing the demand for studios.

All those are going to have much bigger effects than the idea that a significantly larger number - a number that makes it noticeable to average bookings - get used and not wasted in an up economy and that Disney does no adjusting for a noticeable variation in their cash bookings.

Finally, I have perceived in increase in the postings of "there is nothing four months out" that has other DISers checking and saying "what are you talking about, there is plenty four months out." As more rooms are added to the system, there are fewer rooms proportionally at VGF - and VGF is going to be harder and harder to book seven months out. For those people who perceive "nothing" is available when there are studios out at SSR or VAKL or OKW and one bedrooms at other resorts - yeah, availability is tightening, and that has nothing to do with the economy - other than DVC continues to sell points and the more non home resort points are trying for those few VGF rooms, the harder they are to get.

I agree with all 7 reasons pretty much, no doubt. But people do have to have the money to do so. The money to rent points, the money to buy the small contracts and such. I haven't even thought about the four to five in a studio, ya, that is a big one right there.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

@crisi I would add a lot of people want studios that sleep 5 at 7 and they are the hardest.

 

[SL6827]

Five in a studio is a lot. I couldn't do it, I don't think. Maybe at the Poly, maybe, lol.

 

[chicagoshannon]

Hello! I've been a member since 2004, but over the past couple of years have a harder time to find availability. 3-6 months out over the past several trips, I'm struggling to find availability. Is it becoming that I need to call the day of the home resort at the 7 month mark? I've enjoyed 15 years of scheduling any resort within 5 months, but now frustrated that there is zero (studio-3 bedroom) available at ANY resort 5 months in advance (not spring break) for 4 days. Can anyone give insight and guidance? Thanks!

1. More members are actually vacationing since the economy is so good right now.

2. More members have discovered renting out their points instead of trading into RCI/losing their points.

 

[crisi]

I agree with all 7 reasons pretty much, no doubt. But people do have to have the money to do so. The money to rent points, the money to buy the small contracts and such. I haven't even thought about the four to five in a studio, ya, that is a big one right there.

The problem is that the points are of a limited supply. It has to be a BAD economy, not merely not a great one, for the supply of points in the system to exceed the demand. For years, there have been more people looking to rent points than points available - and even in the depths of 2009-10 I only remember half a dozen people whose points didn't get rented out - and that was because, they stuck to a price that was high because they had loans and wanted to cover both dues and their financing when a lot of people were more willing to rent out at a lower price point.

During the 2009 recession period, our household had a lot MORE money. Because we both stayed employed and because there were lots of bargains to be had on the luxuries we wanted. That was the year we did an ABD trip for 40% of list cost. There are always people who have money during a recession - and they tend to leave a recession even richer.

 

[SL6827]

I know this is kinda off topic somewhat but I bought myself a 40 point contract at OKW in 2018 for like $97 a point, and sold it this year for $115 a point. Kept it nine months, had a few great stays with it and then made a profit. That still blows me away.

 

[Sandisw]

Five in a studio is a lot. I couldn't do it, I don't think. Maybe at the Poly, maybe, lol.

It is, But when you are a family of 5, you are used to staying in a hotel room that way. We did for years.

I just stayed in a 2 bedroom with one friend and I realized it will be very hard to even go back to do a studio with more than 2...won’t be happening!

 

[zavandor]

During the 2009 recession period, our household had a lot MORE money. Because we both stayed employed and because there were lots of bargains to be had on the luxuries we wanted. That was the year we did an ABD trip for 40% of list cost. There are always people who have money during a recession - and they tend to leave a recession even richer.

Never thought of this side of the recession, but I guess it applies to me as well. My luxury for cheap was buying DVC resale at the bargain price I could have in 2012 and 2013.

 

[Brian Noble]

But people do have to have the money to do so.

More importantly, they have to believe they have the money to do so.

 

[Brian Noble]

Realistic macroscopic factors likely to have a larger effect than the economy in a fixed point use em or loose em timeshare system:

1. ... 7.

But of those, none of them (with maybe the exception of #1) apply to any of these other systems, yet these other systems also report a tightening of inventory. So, they can't be the only things.

I do agree that some DVC changes have exacerbated the problem, but I don't think they explain all of it, and I predict that when a major recession next hits, there will be a corresponding increase in availability. Time will tell I guess.

 

[SL6827]

But of those, none of them (with maybe the exception of #1) apply to any of these other systems, yet these other systems also report a tightening of inventory. So, they can't be the only things.

I do agree that some DVC changes have exacerbated the problem, but I don't think they explain all of it, and I predict that when a major recession next hits, there will be a corresponding increase in availability. Time will tell I guess.

Yes, time will tell. Very true. It will be interesting to see even though I hate that a recession will take place, but that is just a cycle that is inevitable.

 

[SL6827]

It is, But when you are a family of 5, you are used to staying in a hotel room that way. We did for years.

I just stayed in a 2 bedroom with one friend and I realized it will be very hard to even go back to do a studio with more than 2...won’t be happening!

Ya, I know. Me and my husband did a one bedroom at Hilton Head once and it was so awesome.

 

[LPnerd]

I can do that - but something has changed over the past couple of years to drain the inventory. If I have to plan 11 months out at my home resort and hope for what I want, I'd rather plan a non-disney vacation and sell the points. Just curious if something changed that I wasn't aware of. I've enjoyed 15 years of Disney and watching the kids enjoy it, but am frustrated that for two years, I can't find ANY room 5 months out.

YES! We have noticed that as well and it's getting very frustrating to have to literally set your alarm and notices for the day of the 7 month out. Plus, who the heck has that life where you can really knowingly book that far out? We have become more and more frustrated over this, I don't want to stay at downtown disney resorts, we are not fans of Saratoga at all! Most times that's all that's left. There are questionnaires that get sent out, and polls taken, I always say my number one C/O is lack of availability. We always pick lowest point times to go .

 

[Sandisw]

YES! We have noticed that as well and it's getting very frustrating to have to literally set your alarm and notices for the day of the 7 month out. Plus, who the heck has that life where you can really knowingly book that far out? We have become more and more frustrated over this, I don't want to stay at downtown disney resorts, we are not fans of Saratoga at all! Most times that's all that's left. There are questionnaires that get sent out, and polls taken, I always say my number one C/O is lack of availability. We always pick lowest point times to go .

Unfortunately, that is the nature of the timeshares. Studios are definitely getting harder and planning in advance has become key because of all the factors discussed,

At least with online booking, it is easier to go on and check and wi5h some stalking, you can end up sometimes with what you want. Just yesterday,at I was able to get my last 2 nights at BLT for March, just 3 months out, and no longer need to do a split at with SSR.

But yeah, DVC is going to be frustrating if you can’t book that Far out, Think more owners are buying at places they want to be at and of course, that leaves less rooms for trading into if one doesn’t own at the popular resorts.

 

[djtx]

You guys are awesome with your insight!!! It helps me understand how things are changing with demand and availability. When I purchased DVC, my first child was 18 months old. Now I have three and we've been there every year (some years multiple times) over the past 14 years. We've tried to stay at different resorts throughout that time. It's becoming more difficult (even 7 months out), and with tickets and food (even if we have groceries delivered), there are more exciting adventures out there. We've really enjoyed it, but now have 400 points coming up in June (200 banked) that we haven't been able to find availability with our work/vacation schedules. I think it's time to relish the amazing experiences and move on. Should I rent moving forward or sell out?

 

[bwvBound]

You guys are awesome with your insight!!! It helps me understand how things are changing with demand and availability. When I purchased DVC, my first child was 18 months old. Now I have three and we've been there every year (some years multiple times) over the past 14 years. We've tried to stay at different resorts throughout that time. It's becoming more difficult (even 7 months out), and with tickets and food (even if we have groceries delivered), there are more exciting adventures out there. We've really enjoyed it, but now have 400 points coming up in June (200 banked) that we haven't been able to find availability with our work/vacation schedules. I think it's time to relish the amazing experiences and move on. Should I rent moving forward or sell out?

I vote RENT. Get a quick return on those extra points w/out having to make a difficult and permanent decision.