Fall Incentives

[RuntheMouse]

Any points bought direct give you that - access to all resort even those upcoming at least per what they state now. Buying RIV means that if there came a day you needed to sell the product you'd be selling would have usage restricted to all locations except RIV. VGF etc if the member needed to sell would still have access to 14 other resorts, not just the home resort.

I am well aware that any direct gave me unrestricted access. What I referenced was that in wanting to purchase Riviera, we chose direct instead of resale due to the restrictions. I have no desire to own at GFV. The vast majority or our points are resale. As I said in my original post, I’m taking my RIV points to the grave.

 

[tom1944]

My gut says restrictions are a drag on resale purchases.

 

[tom1944]

I am well aware that any direct gave me unrestricted access. What I referenced was that in wanting to purchase Riviera, we chose direct instead of resale due to the restrictions. I have no desire to own at GFV. The vast majority or our points are resale. As I said in my original post, I’m taking my RIV points to the grave.

I think that is the best way to purchase any of the restricted resorts. Plan to own it until you die or transfer it to your kid.

 

[DanCali]

@DanCali did you add a mug?

I did! Finally pulled the trigger on a 2042 resort, albeit a tiny contract to cover a couple of studio nights in holiday season. I mentioned it the active 2042 resorts thread and likened overpaying (in my mind) for 2042 resorts as enjoying the red chip blackjack tables in Vegas but staying away from the green chip tables. Enjoy it, while controlling the total expense because it's really not the best deal out there from a total cost point of view.

6th mug may be on the way, and then I strongly suspect my wife shuts down my operation

 

[J-Dog]

Perusal of resale listings show RIV below CCV - the resort next closest in length of contract. And it is not difficult to find it lower than BCV. More in the realm of BLT perhaps which is 10 years its senior. To say that restrictions aren't hurting resale I feel is RIV fan talk vs actual numbers.

I think that is the best way to purchase any of the restricted resorts. Plan to own it until you die or transfer it to your kid.

Okay. So these 2 posts demonstrate to me the "sky is falling" attitude toward possible decreased resale value due to restrictions - they range from anywhere from "RIV resale is worth what BLT is worth" - i.e. restrictions may have a small percentage impact on resale value, to "if you buy RIV direct, just don't ever sell it because it will be worth zero $".

 

[UA DVC Member]

Why do you say that? So far, I have seen no evidence to support that restrictions have impacted resale value. And with more restricted resorts coming online, theoretically the impact should lessen, not worsen.

One could argue that the lack of better incentives at RIV this fall is because DVD thinks that there will indeed be suppressed resale value due to restrictions, so resale is worthless, and therefore they don't need to entice people to buy direct.

But the other possibility for the lack of new incentives at RIV is, like Sandi said, they are just happy with the current rate of direct sales and it has nothing to do with restrictions or resale value - since they don't have a

Why do you say that? So far, I have seen no evidence to support that restrictions have impacted resale value. And with more restricted resorts coming online, theoretically the impact should lessen, not worsen.

One could argue that the lack of better incentives at RIV this fall is because DVD thinks that there will indeed be suppressed resale value due to restrictions, so resale is worthless, and therefore they don't need to entice people to buy direct.

But the other possibility for the lack of new incentives at RIV is, like Sandi said, they are just happy with the current rate of direct sales and it has nothing to do with restrictions or resale value - since they don't have a crystal ball any more than we do.

My point is that because of what you say 'suppressed resale value due to restrictions, so resale is worthless' that alone will deter a lot of future buyers, whether direct or resale.

If there had not been an active and healthy resale market, we never would have bought in the first place. Also, as current owners, we should be rooting for the resale market to remain healthy. If it does not remain so, the value of currently owned contracts will plummet in value.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I did! Finally pulled the trigger on a 2042 resort, albeit a tiny contract to cover a couple of studio nights in holiday season. I mentioned it the active 2042 resorts thread and likened overpaying (in my mind) for 2042 resorts as enjoying the red chip blackjack tables in Vegas but staying away from the green chip tables. Enjoy it, while controlling the total expense because it's really not the best deal out there from a total cost point of view.

6th mug may be on the way, and then I strongly suspect my wife shuts down my operation

I just unloaded my other 2042 resort (OKW) and am down to just 3 resorts total now. I think it's a pretty good mix: 2042 at BRV (331 points, favorite home), 2054 at SSR (200 direct SAP's, although we HAVE stayed there), and of course 2062 at Aulani (220 points).

 

[BeachClub2014]

If there had not been an active and healthy resale market, we never would have bought in the first place. Also, as current owners, we should be rooting for the resale market to remain healthy. If it does not remain so, the value of currently owned contracts will plummet in value.

Not arguing your point, as it is a prevalent position of many owners. I would offer, however, that many other owners are not concerned about future resale values as their value in currently owned contracts comes from their use, not as an investment. It all depends on the individual view and motivation in buying, using, and retaining contracts.

 

[DanCali]

I just unloaded my other 2042 resort (OKW) and am down to just 3 resorts total now. I think it's a pretty good mix: 2042 at BRV (331 points, favorite home), 2054 at SSR (200 direct SAP's, although we HAVE stayed there), and of course 2062 at Aulani (220 points).

Sounds like a good mix!

By the way, those mugs are actually very nice IRL. It's not just a virtual collection - I use them (in a rotation) every morning with my caffeine fix!

 

[tom1944]

Okay. So these 2 posts demonstrate to me the "sky is falling" attitude toward possible decreased resale value due to restrictions - they range from anywhere from "RIV resale is worth what BLT is worth" - i.e. restrictions may have a small percentage impact on resale value, to "if you buy RIV direct, just don't ever sell it because it will be worth zero $".

I do not think it will be worth zero. I do think it will be worth less than a similar resort without restrictions.

Once there are zero non-restricted resorts that all changes

 

[Sandisw]

My gut says restrictions are a drag on resale purchases.

I am sure there is some impact. The problem with the whole 40% off notion is it doesn’t reflect the actual price buyers are paying for it.

Incentives have brought the pricing for 150 to 200 points down to the $160s to $180s during its time for sale.

So, I think it’s Probcbly more like 20 to 25%

That’s why I think it’s just too soon to determine if it’s impact is going to be major or minor in the long run.

Plus, all resorts have seen a drop in prices in the past year. Look at BLT, Poly and CCV. Maybe some of the factors impacting those resorts could also be impacting RIV?

At least in a few more years, there will be many more contracts, potentially for sale.

And, in 5 years, when RIV is sold out and DVD raised the sold out price to $250 plus,, resale prices might stabilize or even go a bit higher.

If I had to sell today at $130, I’d loose 15% to 20% of its purchase price.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Sounds like a good mix!

By the way, those mugs are actually very nice IRL. It's not just a virtual collection - I use them every morning with my caffeine fix!

Quick! All the resorts get retroactively restricted. You have to unload 4 of your 5 and only stay at the other one from here on out. DVD gives you one minute to decide and they'll buy the other 4 back at full price so that's not a factor. Which one do you keep?

 

[DanCali]

Quick! All the resorts get retroactively restricted. You have to unload 4 of your 5 and only stay at the other one from here on out. DVD gives you one minute to decide and they'll buy the other 4 back at full price so that's not a factor. Which one do you keep?

Tough one!

Probably the direct AKV because:

1) good value: reasonably prices standard rooms, which can be booked at 11 months (as opposed to value).
2) the resort is a destination in its own right
3) contract size goes pretty far with the pricing there
4) 2057 expiration is more than I will ever need
5) the club level option, if you can get it
6) the 2 bathrooms in the 1BRs at Kidani are great for a family of 4
7) came with blue card

But honestly, there are reasons why we bought each one of those like monorail access, studios which sleep 5, etc (which AKV doesn't have) so it's good to have choices because they all have tradeoffs. We live close and tend to go for short weekend trips, so it's nice to mix it up.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Tough one!

Probably the direct AKV because:

1) good value: reasonably prices standard rooms, which can be booked at 11 months (as opposed to value).
2) the resort is a destination in its own right
3) contract size goes pretty far with the pricing there
4) 2057 expiration is more than I will ever need
5) the club level option, if you can get it
6) the 2 bathrooms in the 1BRs at Kidani are great for a family of 4
7) came with blue card

But honestly, there are reasons why we bought each one of those like monorail access, studios which sleep 5, etc (which AKV doesn't have) so it's good to have choices because they all have tradeoffs. We live close and tend to go for short weekend trips, so it's nice to mix it up.

That makes me happy you speak so highly of AKV as that's our first and only resale we just closed on and can't wait to use! Am definitely hoping to be able to "sleep around" with the points eventually but also cannot wait to enjoy that beautiful resort as well!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Sounds like a good mix!

By the way, those mugs are actually very nice IRL. It's not just a virtual collection - I use them every morning with my caffeine fix!



View attachment 793314

I agree!

 

[MyDogTink]

In order to determine how restricted resorts do on the resale market, I think more time is needed for more restricted resorts to come on line and 2042 resorts to get closer to expiration. As it’s been said, the pendulum will swing with more restricted resorts in the lineup so restrictions will become more the norm. DVC may also be adjusting their pricing model which may change the resale vs direct sales decision. There’s a number of factors that can change over time.

I just want more info on Poly2!!!

 

[tom1944]

I am sure there is some impact. The problem with the whole 40% off notion is it doesn’t reflect the actual price buyers are paying for it.

Incentives have brought the pricing for 150 to 200 points down to the $160s to $180s during its time for sale.

So, I think it’s Probcbly more like 20 to 25%

That’s why I think it’s just too soon to determine if it’s impact is going to be major or minor in the long run.

Plus, all resorts have seen a drop in prices in the past year. Look at BLT, Poly and CCV. Maybe some of the factors impacting those resorts could also be impacting RIV?

At least in a few more years, there will be many more contracts, potentially for sale.

And, in 5 years, when RIV is sold out and DVD raised the sold out price to $250 plus,, resale prices might stabilize or even go a bit higher.

If I had to sell today at $130, I’d loose 15% to 20% of its purchase price.

I have not done enough research to even guess what percentage of a drag on resale prices restrictions are. I am only saying that I believe restrictions have some negative impact.

 

[Sandisw]

I have not done enough research to even guess what percentage of a drag on resale prices restrictions are. I am only saying that I believe restrictions have some negative impact.

It was more to just share that the actual dip is not that big and most resorts see some level of a drop when a resort is still in active sales. So, I think that the chart is a bit misleading using simply base price.

VGF is a bit unique because it has an established resale price that was high because direct was $255/pt prior to the new rooms,

 

[Genie+]

I’m far from a data scientist. Comparing today’s sold out pricing does not reflect buyers actual experiences over the last decade+. In that sense RIV -40% drop is not typical. Pulled from DISboards history:

(Price Adjusted for Inflation and
% difference from resale price today)

2009 with incentives
BLT $98pp ($140 0%) and as low as $92pp ($131 +8.5%)
AKV $96pp ($137 -9%)

2012 with incentives
SSR $105 ($140 -22%)

2013 with incentives
AKV around $100pp still plus a big stack of VIP fastpasses lol ($131 -9%)
VGF $150pp before incentives which I can’t find ($197 -20%)

2015
PVB full price $165 ($212 -25%) Incentives were said to be small and I can’t even find any.
People commented ‘Sales slow ‘ yet sold out by 2018 where DVC then opened a waitlist at $220pp!!!
(By mid-2018 Poly resale was $150pp, so even at the high buy-in and price adjusted it had only dropped around -10%)

2017 with incentives
CCV ~$160pp ($200 -30%)
Late 2018 CCV incentives brought it

-40% direct to resale doesn’t look typical to me, though the gap’s widening since the changes DVD implemented.

 

[mamaofsix]

That's a reasonable way to look at it.

But which do you think will have a higher resale value in 10 years? Poly1 or Poly2?

Personally, I think Poly1 will be much more valuable on the resale market since it can trade into 13 other resorts, including Hawaii (maybe just 7-8 resorts after 2042) while Poly2 will be much less desirable for a resale buyer. That's just from a functionality perspective, not the resort itself. So I have no desire to be the direct Poly2 owner selling in 7-10 years and incurring a 50%+ capital loss on something with an advertised 50-year life. If I loved the resort, I might be happy to be on the other side of that transaction though...

Have we actually heard that there will be a "Poly 2," separate from the first Poly association? I hadn't heard confirmation of that yet. It could certainly end up being the same as Grand Floridian, in which case the new points being sold will not be restricted.