50/50. We've waitlisted a lot. It used to be closer to 80% of the time the waitlist would come through. But with all these sales, especially Aulani, it's dropped to 50/50. That seems the going average. I'm afraid they've sold a lot of SoCal folks on the idea that they can buy Aulani and just book at VGC, but truth is, there's very limited options. However, you still have a much better chance with a single night.
PS, you can always try and trade some of your pts. for VGC. What is your home resort?