Hurricane Dorian - SWA/Delta/AA/JB waivers available

[sethschroeder]

With Dorian just being named this afternoon I have a simple question. If a hurricane is projected to hit Orlando when do they stop incoming flights? If we are arriving 24 hours prior to hurricane would the flight still be scheduled?

I know its really early and possibly very unlikely to effect Orlando except with some rain. That being said I am just interested in what we can look to expect as we get closer to our flight on Saturday.

 

[JimMIA]

It's way too early to tell what Dorian is going to do. Right now, it's a tropical storm, and not projected to get bigger than Cat 1 through next Thursday.

The airlines have to reposition their aircraft prior to the arrival of tropical storm force winds (39 MPH). It's too early yet, but eventually the NHC will publish wind field projections that will give us a better idea whether or not there will be any effect on Orlando.

The current track takes Dorian right over Hispaniola (Haiti and the DR), which is very mountainous. Some of the computer models also take Dorian into eastern Cuba, which is also very mountainous. If it hits the DR as a Cat 1 and then goes to eastern Cuba, I'd be surprised if it survives.

Other models show the start of a recurvature to the north about Thursday, and if that happens, it will probably go out to sea.

But as I said -- it is WAY too early to guess. We'll have a much clearer picture by about Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[js]

We flew in to Disney the day before Irma and the weather was fine and we found out on our flight it was the last flight that plane was making (it was early in morning). There were less than 20 passengers on our full size JetBlue flight.

 

[JimMIA]

This morning's info on Dorian is looking a little more encouraging, but it is still WAY to early to guess where it will be 7-10 days from now.

The basic path has shifted very slightly to the right, which takes Dorian a little more north than what we say yesterday afternoon. However, the system is also expected to weaken, rather than strengthen.

The current path has Dorian moving generally west to west-northwest as a tropical storm until Wednesday. On Wednesday, Dorian is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane, but then on Thursday it is expected to weaken back to a tropical storm due to increased wind shear. It is expected to hit the Dominican Republic and Haiti as a tropical storm on Friday. Interaction with the mountains of the DR and Haiti are expected to weaken the system to a tropical depression.

For the longer term, it's still WAY too early to predict, but most of the computer models call for Dorian to resume a more westerly track and move across Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. As noted above, the eastern part of Cuba is also very mountainous and that should further weaken the storm.

Bottom line -- wait and see.

 

[Orfness2000]

Thanks for the info JimMIA, just came across this forum looking for the same info since my family is flying into Orlando for Labor Day weekend too.

 

[JimMIA]

First of all, to address the question of aircraft repositioning and the effect on flights -- here's the NHC's best guess on arrival times of tropical storm force winds. The cone doesn't reach as far as Orlando, but it looks like winds would reach Orlando on Saturday or Sunday. Here's the wind-guess map:




And here's the 5-day cone for the system. Looks like probable development to a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow night, and striking the Dominican Republic and/or Puerto Rico Wednesday night/Thursday morning...also as a Category 1 hurricane, and then weakening to tropical storm.


From there, who knows? You can't really see it on these maps, but the system is shifting from a westerly movement toward a NW movement. The more it shifts to the right, the more likely it will impact Puerto Rico rather than the DR.

We are rooting for a slight shift to the left, which would take it into the mountains of Hispaniola and greatly weaken the storm. The DR and Haiti have the five highest mountains in the Caribbean, ranging from about 7500 feet to more than 10,000 feet -- so Hispaniola could really impact this system in a good way.

The above map suggests a straight line toward Daytona Beach, but that's not what the computer models show. The models show more of a leftward tendency in days 4,5, and 6 and landfall around the Ft. Lauderdale-Miami area on Sunday as a tropical storm.

 

[Brer Chump]

Some airlines are now allowing free changes due to Dorian in some CARIBBEAN locations.

 

[Surfinpiratee]

We're flying into Orlando on Saturday.. flying back home Tuesday. I'm just hoping flights aren't affected! After being stuck in Disney an extra 4 days (not the worst place to be stranded, but ya know lol) because of SEVERE cold back home, I'm not ready to get stuck there again

 

[LadyBeBop]

We are rooting for a slight shift to the left, which would take it into the mountains of Hispaniola and greatly weaken the storm. The DR and Haiti have the five highest mountains in the Caribbean, ranging from about 7500 feet to more than 10,000 feet -- so Hispaniola could really impact this system in a good way.

Crossing my fingers. My daughter is on the Allure of the Seas this week. Her itinerary was already switched from an Eastern Caribbean to a Western Caribbean cruise. Cozumel, once again.

The above map suggests a straight line toward Daytona Beach, but that's not what the computer models show. The models show more of a leftward tendency in days 4,5, and 6 and landfall around the Ft. Lauderdale-Miami area on Sunday as a tropical storm.

...which would be the worst case scenario for us. The ship is scheduled to arrive back in Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale) on Sunday morning. She and her husband are scheduled to fly Allegiant home that afternoon. Royal Caribbean wouldn't dock in a tropical storm...or Allegiant wouldn't fly in a tropical storm, would they?

My daughter has Monday off. But I'm highly doubtful she can get an Allegiant flight back home that day. Labor Day.

 

[JimMIA]

...which would be the worst case scenario for us. The ship is scheduled to arrive back in Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale) on Sunday morning. She and her husband are scheduled to fly Allegiant home that afternoon. Royal Caribbean wouldn't dock in a tropical storm...or Allegiant wouldn't fly in a tropical storm, would they?

No and no. Not only that, but the airlines reposition their aircraft and crews away from the affected areas before the tropical storm force winds arrive.

But it's still WAY too early to predict what this system might do. There are a number of negative factors working against Dorian (dry air, wind shear, mountains, etc). Dorian could just be a memory by the end of the week. Still WAY too early.

 

[LadyBeBop]

No and no. Not only that, but the airlines reposition their aircraft and crews away from the affected areas before the tropical storm force winds arrive.

But it's still WAY too early to predict what this system might do. There are a number of negative factors working against Dorian (dry air, wind shear, mountains, etc). Dorian could just be a memory by the end of the week. Still WAY too early.

You're right. It's too early to fret.

However, Sunday, I hope my daughter takes your car from Port Everglades to FLL. Do you pick up from the ports?

 

[JimMIA]

You're right. It's too early to fret.

Never too early for a Mom to worry! But it is too early for us to make any sensible predictions.

However, Sunday, I hope my daughter takes your car from Port Everglades to FLL. Do you pick up from the ports?

NOT A CHANCE. I occasionally pick up at Port Miami (usually just for friends), but I would NEVER pick up at Port Everglades. It's WAY too much of a hassle, plus it's 50 miles from my normal area.

I avoid Port Everglades and FLL like the plague. Whenever I do a dropoff at either one, I turn my app off and flee.

 

[LadyBeBop]

Never too early for a Mom to worry! But it is too early for us to make any sensible predictions.

NOT A CHANCE. I occasionally pick up at Port Miami (usually just for friends), but I would NEVER pick up at Port Everglades. It's WAY too much of a hassle, plus it's 50 miles from my normal area.

I avoid Port Everglades and FLL like the plague. Whenever I do a dropoff at either one, I turn my app off and flee.

Sorry you won't see my daughter and son-in-law. But thanks for your words of wisdom.

Hope you don't mind my new signature line.

 

[sethschroeder]

Well it's looking like the center of the storm hits Florida Sunday at 2am.

If they let me I am shifting my flight from Saturday evening to either Saturday morning or even Friday night likely.

 

[sandam1]

We are supposed to be flying in on Southwest on Sunday morning (I know! ugh!). I just checked the Southwest flights and they are marking everything as unavailable in the Wanna Get Away category from Saturday afternoon through Monday AND our specific flight on Sunday morning is all "sold out." This is making me super nervous that Southwest is getting ready to start cancelling flights.

What is everyone else seeing? I'm particularly interested in other people's statuses on Southwest.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

We are supposed to be flying in on Southwest on Sunday morning (I know! ugh!). I just checked the Southwest flights and they are marking everything as unavailable in the Wanna Get Away category from Saturday afternoon through Monday AND our specific flight on Sunday morning is all "sold out." This is making me super nervous that Southwest is getting ready to start cancelling flights.

What is everyone else seeing? I'm particularly interested in other people's statuses on Southwest.

Can you book in any other fare category (business etc)? They may have just stopped selling wanna get away because you are under 7 days.

 

[lilmape]

Can you book in any other fare category (business etc)? They may have just stopped selling wanna get away because you are under 7 days.

Yes. Business and anytime are still available. We are scheduled to fly in at 4pm Saturday

 

[Cinderumbrella]

Yes. Business and anytime are still available. We are scheduled to fly in at 4pm Saturday

We fly in early Friday and out late Tuesday. I’m not worried about flights but I’m prepared to be really wet this weekend in Galaxy’ Edge.

 

[sandam1]

Can you book in any other fare category (business etc)? They may have just stopped selling wanna get away because you are under 7 days.

Yes. Business and anytime are still available. We are scheduled to fly in at 4pm Saturday

Same here. The more expensive fares are available on everything other than our specific flight.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

Same here. The more expensive fares are available on everything other than our specific flight.

Then it sounds like your flight is indeed sold out. Try not to worry yet. They don’t even know if the storm will hold together past Thursday, much less make it to central Florida.