Marathon Weekend 2022

[DopeyBadger]

Weather update for all races:

5k - 121 to 121 for 5-7am
10k - 122-122 for 5-8am
HM - 105-111 for 5-10am
M - 117-137 for 5am-1pm

The T+D has dropped for all four races from Tuesday's forecast. At this moment, the barometric pressure is showing an increasing trend from Thurs to Sat coinciding with a drop in humidity (dew point). So the HM is getting close to near ideal temps, and the start of the M isn't that bad. Even the end of the M is now far far better than 2020. Not ideal temps like are seen some years, but not bad temps either.

Hmm, very interesting take. I will have to mull that over a bit. I might make that decision based on the weather. I do really want the 3:10 because I think had I taken this approach earlier I could be a sub 3:00 guy but a 3:15 likely assures me of a place while also getting me a marathon PR.

I had that 5 miler at a 6:22 pace based on the course length (Garmin 945 showed 4.90).

At this point in my training on a flat course I think I could pull off sub 1:30 and maybe sub 1:28. I'm not sure I have a 1:25 in me at the moment. On a good day it would be possible but a lot would have to line up.

I really do feel prepared for the 3:10, my only real worry is having to start in the 60s. I am going to set up a Pace Pro at 3:15 also and make it a decision based on the actual weather that morning.

I appreciate all the info, it is great.

So the 6:22 pace for the 8k lines up with the other races (19:16 5k). So I think you should ignore that faster set of data I quoted earlier. I think the odds are more like:

Ideal conditions = 1:28:52 HM runner, then roughly 24% of runners run a 3:10 or better, 45% of runners run a 3:15 or better, and 65% of runners run a 3:20 or better.

Current forecast conditions = 1:31:15 HM runner, then roughly 6% of runners run a 3:10 or better, 22% of runners run a 3:15 or better, and 41% of runners run a 3:20 or better.

In my experience, that 6% is a legit 6%. I've written countless marathon training plans and to my recollection have only gotten two people to beat that 6% value (for their respective fitness). So I'd say under ideal conditions you'd have a 50% chance of 3:10 and under the current forecast you have a 50% chance of 3:15.

Perfect! Thanks, Billy!

I'll run point for the half marathon and marathon pre-race meetups. I am very tall and very handsome (50 percent of those things are true), so I'm easy to find in the morning. I tend to get on the first bus and get there early. I will accept shots. Past Marathon Weekend participants will recall my expensive and exquisite "DIS" signs. I've also attached a picture of myself.

I'll add the picture to the next DIS LIST version.

I thought so too, but it’s too late to change resorts. I saw the road closures map but didn’t realize they start that the evening before. Is it even possible to drive from BLT? I’d like to avoid public transportation if possible so we’re renting a car, and I’m absolutely okay with leaving early. I’m going to print out your options and try to look it up on a map. Thanks!

Per the event guide, it's saying the road out of BLT closes at 4:30am. If you click the arrow in the upper left corner you can get the additional information panel on the google maps guide.



For a counter example, you can see that the road where the start line is (EPCOT Center Drive) is closed starting at 10:30pm the night prior.



So I believe according to the event guide you should be able to exit BLT via World Drive at 2:30am if you chose to do so.

 

[ZellyB]

Since the subject of driving has come up, this question is about toll roads from MCO to
Disney. Is it best to just take a lot of one dollar bills and a bunch of quarters? Also I just
read about a "Visitor Toll Pass" that is available at MCO and they claim there is no charge
to use it and they just charge your credit card for the tolls..sounds like a winner.....has anyone used this? thanks

Are you renting a car? Most of them have a service to let you through the tolls without using the cash lanes. I'm using Alamo and their services charges around $4.00 + the cost of the tolls for the days you use a toll. Some of the services charge you every day whether you use a toll or not so be sure to check that. For me, it's worth the extra $4.00 ($8.00 for round trip to airport) to not worry about going through the cash lanes. One time our GPS took us a different way and the exit ramp didn't have a cash option so we just had to run the toll which stressed me out. We never got a bill or ticket or anything, so I'm not sure what happened there, but anyway, it might be worth checking the rental agency (if you are renting) to see how they manage tolls.

 

[jmasgat]

Since the subject of driving has come up, this question is about toll roads from MCO to
Disney. Is it best to just take a lot of one dollar bills and a bunch of quarters? Also I just
read about a "Visitor Toll Pass" that is available at MCO and they claim there is no charge
to use it and they just charge your credit card for the tolls..sounds like a winner.....has anyone used this? thanks

If you have a rental car...do NOT just go through the transponder lanes. The rental car companies will gouge you with fees/penalties. (I speak from accidental experience with this exiting onto Osceola)

I have done the Visitor toll pass, and it was very straightforward. It also looks like they have made it easier to pick one up at the airport (when I did it, you had to pick up from a live body at the airport, and they asked all the same info all over again, so it was a small hassle) Now there is a vending machine at the airport where you scan a code from the app.

 

[Herding_Cats]

Since the subject of driving has come up, this question is about toll roads from MCO to
Disney. Is it best to just take a lot of one dollar bills and a bunch of quarters? Also I just
read about a "Visitor Toll Pass" that is available at MCO and they claim there is no charge
to use it and they just charge your credit card for the tolls..sounds like a winner.....has anyone used this? thanks

If you're going to pay cash, QUARTERS so you can just drive through the lane where you just drop the exact change into it. We usually use about 1 roll (a little less) going to and from MCO for trips where we rent a car.

I know a lot of people in the transportation sub-forum were really excited about the visitor toll pass being available. It's important to know that you can ONLY pick it up in "A Terminal" so it may require a trip across the airport to get it, depending on your carrier. This will be our first time using it and I am planning to do that first, while the luggage is getting off the plane and into baggage claim (while DH gets into the rental car line.)

Just drive through the "Pay by Plate" lane. You're supposed to get a bill in the mail but that being said, I have never gotten one.

I have never seen a "pay by plate" lane driving from MCO to Disney. Lot's of signs about fines for driving through the sunpass lane without the proper pass though.

 

[jrsharp21]

Just drive through the "Pay by Plate" lane. You're supposed to get a bill in the mail but that being said, I have never gotten one.

This is what I do. Just pick up my car from the Emerald Aisle at National and off I go. Just drive straight through the "pass" lanes. I think I do get charged like $6 per day + tolls for the days I do go through tolls. So usually on the arrival day and departure day.

 

[SheHulk]

I'm unaware of any reason why you'd avoid wearing a carbon plate shoe on concrete. Is there some source that you've read? For me, one of the concerns with a carbon plate shoe at Disney is the high stack height combined with the extreme camber on the on/off ramps. So just keep that in mind to ensure you don't tweak your ankles.

No I hadn't read anything, just thinking that the carbon plate feels stiff and concrete is less forgiving, so put them together and I might get some lower leg pain if I'm prone to that already. I'm thinking for the half it would be less of a problem because it's mostly asphalt with such little park time in there. I seem to remember AK during the full was where I would really feel a difference in my calves, like I was absorbing shock like crazy. Just based on my intuition and feelings though. You don't get very much info on carbon plate shoes being worn by the sub-elite generally, let alone mid-to-back-of-packers, running at a theme park, so who knows.

yes

Thanks!

 

[jrsharp21]

For the road closures, do you think Waze would be helpful in providing a valid route to Epcot? I am driving from Holiday Inn Disney Springs for the 5k and 10k, and then from PO-Riverside for the half and full.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Actual portrait of me this morning.

 

[PrincessV]

On driving to races… I almost always stay at Wyndham Bonnet Creek and just take Buena Vista to World Dr to get to EP. I try to leave my resort within 15 minutes of when resort race buses start running. Never seen either road closed or backed up. The only traffic I’ve ever hit was 2020 marathon, when the exit off World to the EP parking was backed up almost up to World Dr. Looked bad, but moved fine & I was through it and parking within 20 minutes.

On weather… now that I’ve accepted the heat and committed to warm weather outfits, the forecast is changing. You’re welcome.

 

[fatmanatee]

You're not alone with considering driving vs. flying. I'm thinking about the same thing. Where would you be driving from?

NJ. Not ideal. The flight I had was at 9:30 AM on Tuesday so if it was cancelled last minute, I could just flip the switch and drive that day and make it down around midnight (or book another flight). This one is later so I’m a bit concerned, if I get bounced again I might be in trouble.

 

[Herding_Cats]

I have a resort/race bus logistics question.

We are staying at OKW, which is pretty sprawling. And there is absolutely a potential for us to be a looooooong way from the Hospitality House/race bus stop. I'm planning on taking the bus to the races and DH might pick me up after, depending on timing and how bad the road closures, etc. would be. I did ask the owner (rented points) to request a few different buildings that are closer to the HH, without actually being "Close to HH" room category to hopefully prevent us from being a mile away. Would I be able to park up at the HH and DH walk up later that morning to get the car? Is there another way for me to get to the front of the resort that wouldn't have me walking [alone] at 2am or making DH/DD get up at 2am to drive me?

ETA: I'm operating under the assumption that since the expo bus *only* picks up at the HH that the race busses will do the same.

 

[Livelovedance]

Per the event guide, it's saying the road out of BLT closes at 4:30am. If you click the arrow in the upper left corner you can get the additional information panel on the google maps guide.

View attachment 634368

For a counter example, you can see that the road where the start line is (EPCOT Center Drive) is closed starting at 10:30pm the night prior.

View attachment 634369

So I believe according to the event guide you should be able to exit BLT via World Drive at 2:30am if you chose to do so.

Thank you for this! I was looking at it on my phone so I only saw the map. I didn’t realize there was additional information! This is very helpful!

 

[1GoldenSun]

I have a resort/race bus logistics question.

We are staying at OKW, which is pretty sprawling. And there is absolutely a potential for us to be a looooooong way from the Hospitality House/race bus stop. I'm planning on taking the bus to the races and DH might pick me up after, depending on timing and how bad the road closures, etc. would be. I did ask the owner (rented points) to request a few different buildings that are closer to the HH, without actually being "Close to HH" room category to hopefully prevent us from being a mile away. Would I be able to park up at the HH and DH walk up later that morning to get the car? Is there another way for me to get to the front of the resort that wouldn't have me walking [alone] at 2am or making DH/DD get up at 2am to drive me?

ETA: I'm operating under the assumption that since the expo bus *only* picks up at the HH that the race busses will do the same.

I'm also staying at OKW and have been pondering what I'm going to do as well. I also rented points and the person I rented from didn't know how to make a location request so I have no idea where I'll be. I'm considering driving rather than taking the bus, but that is fraught with its own difficulties.

I've never stayed at OKW. I could see me getting lost trying to find the HH, wandering the resort in the middle of the night, covering 5 miles before the race even starts.

 

[GreatLakes]

So the 6:22 pace for the 8k lines up with the other races (19:16 5k). So I think you should ignore that faster set of data I quoted earlier. I think the odds are more like:

Ideal conditions = 1:28:52 HM runner, then roughly 24% of runners run a 3:10 or better, 45% of runners run a 3:15 or better, and 65% of runners run a 3:20 or better.

Current forecast conditions = 1:31:15 HM runner, then roughly 6% of runners run a 3:10 or better, 22% of runners run a 3:15 or better, and 41% of runners run a 3:20 or better.

In my experience, that 6% is a legit 6%. I've written countless marathon training plans and to my recollection have only gotten two people to beat that 6% value (for their respective fitness). So I'd say under ideal conditions you'd have a 50% chance of 3:10 and under the current forecast you have a 50% chance of 3:15.

I think you've convinced me. If the forecast doesn't drop more I'll go out at 3:15 pace, maybe a few seconds faster to bank some time before the sun comes up, and if I still feel good around 16 or 17 I can start to ramp up the time. I think with the exception of one year a BQ - 5 would get me in.

I appreciate it as always.

 

[WhereInFlorida]

I'm also staying at OKW and have been pondering what I'm going to do as well. I also rented points and the person I rented from didn't know how to make a location request so I have no idea where I'll be. I'm considering driving rather than taking the bus, but that is fraught with its own difficulties.

I've never stayed at OKW. I could see me getting lost trying to find the HH, wandering the resort in the middle of the night, covering 5 miles before the race even starts.

I had the same question when I stayed at POR and there were multiple stops throughout the resort, at least 4. So hopefully OKW will have the same, the cast members will know where stops are for the morning and can provide you that info. Otherwise driving to HH is also a good option.

 

[Herding_Cats]

Merch Preview is out!

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/b...nd-merchandise/?CMP=SOC-DPFY22Q1wo1230210010A

 

[Herding_Cats]

I had the same question when I stayed at POR and there were multiple stops throughout the resort, at least 4. So hopefully OKW will have the same, the cast members will know where stops are for the morning and can provide you that info. Otherwise driving to HH is also a good option.

Per a KTP blog post from 2020 MW, runners were directed to the HH for race bussing. I'm going to continue to dig for info.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have a resort/race bus logistics question.

We are staying at OKW, which is pretty sprawling. And there is absolutely a potential for us to be a looooooong way from the Hospitality House/race bus stop. I'm planning on taking the bus to the races and DH might pick me up after, depending on timing and how bad the road closures, etc. would be. I did ask the owner (rented points) to request a few different buildings that are closer to the HH, without actually being "Close to HH" room category to hopefully prevent us from being a mile away. Would I be able to park up at the HH and DH walk up later that morning to get the car? Is there another way for me to get to the front of the resort that wouldn't have me walking [alone] at 2am or making DH/DD get up at 2am to drive me?

ETA: I'm operating under the assumption that since the expo bus *only* picks up at the HH that the race busses will do the same.

I'm also staying at OKW and have been pondering what I'm going to do as well. I also rented points and the person I rented from didn't know how to make a location request so I have no idea where I'll be. I'm considering driving rather than taking the bus, but that is fraught with its own difficulties.

I've never stayed at OKW. I could see me getting lost trying to find the HH, wandering the resort in the middle of the night, covering 5 miles before the race even starts.

I stayed at OKW one of the years (maybe it was 2018), and my recollection is that they have an internal bus that zips around during the early morning to pick up runners and take them to the HH stop of OKW pre-race to then board a new bus heading to the races. I do not remember this being the case for Expo buses, but I also think I got on an expo bus at Boardwalk. But since the Expo bus happens once theme parks are open, it's possible you may be able to catch a standard bus that's stopping at HH to then disembark and get on the Expo bus at HH. It would be a good question for the concierge when you arrive, but my experience is that they're not always hip on the runDisney details. The people in the know tend to be the people standing outside the buses in the morning.

I think you've convinced me. If the forecast doesn't drop more I'll go out at 3:15 pace, maybe a few seconds faster to bank some time before the sun comes up, and if I still feel good around 16 or 17 I can start to ramp up the time. I think with the exception of one year a BQ - 5 would get me in.

I appreciate it as always.

So here is the chart for BQ times and the needed cutoff:

https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/qualify/history-qualifying-times


Ignore 2021 because that was the reduced field race. The cutoffs were changed for the 2020 race by reducing the standards by 5 min (mostly across the board). Here is the data taking that 2021 out and adjusting 2020 data to 2012 standards:



You're aiming for the 2023 Boston race. If the improvement of the registrations from runners continues from the trend line developed in 2015, then the line crosses 2023 somewhere around 9 min from 2012 standards. So that would be an estimation of about BQ-4 min from current standards. Whether that trend line continues after the pandemic remains to be seen.

 

[lookingforsunshine]

The Run Disney Insta has a merch preview!

 

[LSUfan4444]

The one time I pre-bought a race jacket was the 2020 Marathon Weekend jacket and I hate the fit. I've been trying to sell that thing on ebay and marketplace for years

I know my daughter is going to love some 10k merch though...she's already said, "Well dad, how can I let people know I've ran the 10k without being obnoxious about it and wear my medal everywhere we go when we get home?"