My Slow Divorce from Walt Disney World

[goofy4prez]

I have seen this question asked time and time again for the past 23 years that I have been here.

Fair enough and a valid point. I certainly respect what you are saying. I have also seen and said the same thing.

But with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates .50 which is the highest in 22 years. With the inflation rate now the highest it's been in over 40 years. The consumer price index has sky rocketed to a whopping 8.5%. Mortgage interest rates are now over 5% and many experts predicting well over 6.5% by years end. With gas prices at an all-time high and over $4.22 per gallon. With electricity and gas prices continually climbing. The USDA says that food prices are now at a decades high 9% increase over last year and saying it will only get worse. 401Ks are abysmal and are now in rapid decline.

I could go on and on. I'm a 50 something and looking at retirement in the next decade. I have never in my lifetime seen the mess we are in right now and the slope we are quickly going down. It is only a matter of time, and I think very soon, that WDW, DCL, the travel industry, cruises and other disposable income outlets are going to feel the impact of this economy. This bubble Disney has been riding, IMO, is going to hit a brick wall and hit it soon.

 

[john7994]

Fair enough and a valid point. I certainly respect what you are saying. I have also said the same thing.

But with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates .50 which is the highest in 22 years. With the inflation rate now the highest it's been in over 40 years. The consumer price index has sky rocketed to a whopping 8.5%. Mortgage interest rates are now over 5% and many experts predicting well over 6.5% by years end. With gas prices at an all-time high and over $4.22 per gallon. With electricity and gas prices continually climbing. The USDA says that food prices are now at a decades high 9% increase over last year and saying it will only get worse. 401Ks are abysmal and are now in rapid decline.

I could go on and on. I'm a 50 something and looking at retirement in the next decade. I have never in my lifetime seen the mess we are in right now and the slope we are quickly going down. It is only a matter of time, and I think very soon, that WDW, DCL, the travel industry, cruises and other disposable income outlets are going to feel the impact of this economy. This bubble Disney has been riding, IMO, is going to hit a brick wall and hit it soon.

The times are unprecedented (I realize most are sick of hearing it) ... we are coming out of a global shutdown ... wrecked supply chains ... a crazy labor situation and crazy low interest rates as a starting point. To top it all off, another war on the European Continent (again) ... So for everything you rightly listed with perhaps different reasons for being ... Disney is actually the least of my concerns for the next 5 years to be honest.

 

[goofy4prez]

The times are unprecedented (I realize most are sick of hearing it) ... we are coming out of a global shutdown ... wrecked supply chains ... a crazy labor situation and crazy low interest rates as a starting point. To top it all off, another war on the European Continent (again) ... So for everything you rightly listed with perhaps different reasons for being ... Disney is actually the least of my concerns for the next 5 years to be honest.

Nailed it, Spot on, Drop the mic. I agree with you. Right now Disney is at the bottom of the list of priorities and concerns in my life.

 

[SandyinMonterey]

How are the parks not equal for all? Everyone has been hit by the price increases. Genie + and LL is available for all guests to purchase.

I don’t disagree with your overall post though. We feel the same. We have sold most of our DVC points and just cruise on DCL now.

We are DVC too. haven't sold out points though. But have the same plan. Less WDW, more DCL time (and other cruise lines).

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Most of the Disney “divorces” I read about on the DIS sound more like trial separations with booty calls.

That's awesome, does that mean they are sleeping with universal and sneaking back to the mouse

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I wonder how much they can continue to nickel and dime and raise prices before they reach the point of diminishing returns.

If the stock price is any indication they are there!

 

[RamblingMad]

Disney is great. I prefer CA Disney to FL Disney. I haven't tried Genie+. This feels like a software beta test. I don't want to be a tester. I'll wait until next year for that privilege.

I get all of the complaints for FL Disney, so there is no way I'm going to commit to a DVC contract.

 

[brockash]

It used to be I would get excited when my wife said let’s take the kids to Walt Disney World this year. I would frantically start my research using websites and spreadsheets to estimate the costs.
Today it’s impossible. It is too varying and complicated to get an actuate cost. And why? Too much has disappeared. Gone is the transportation from MCO, tickets that don’t expire,
and now based on the time of year, free parking, room rates with only four ‘seasons’, now seven, and not charging extra for weekends, free fast passes where you can do a least something.

But I don’t blame Disney executives for this, I blame business schools for teaching the American Greed Technology where establishing as many revenue streams as possible is the thing to do.

I do understand that some guests prefer to stay at higher end resorts as compared to the All Stars, great, but the parks should be equal for all.
Having better resources gives one the ability to do more just by paying for it. And those that can’t, don’t.

In the coming months I will be reevaluating the meaning of ‘Magic’.

That's a great way to describe it...long, slow divorce. We're in it as well...I can see it coming and I see the end for us...and it's sad.

 

[DCLMP]

Thanks for the tip about MSC Yacht club. I will definitely look into them. We are looking to branch out from DCL but are scared we will be miserable on another cruise line.

You will not be miserable. There are a lot of amazing ships out there without a lot more to do onboard.

 

[DCLMP]

Fair enough and a valid point. I certainly respect what you are saying. I have also seen and said the same thing.

But with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates .50 which is the highest in 22 years. With the inflation rate now the highest it's been in over 40 years. The consumer price index has sky rocketed to a whopping 8.5%. Mortgage interest rates are now over 5% and many experts predicting well over 6.5% by years end. With gas prices at an all-time high and over $4.22 per gallon. With electricity and gas prices continually climbing. The USDA says that food prices are now at a decades high 9% increase over last year and saying it will only get worse. 401Ks are abysmal and are now in rapid decline.

I could go on and on. I'm a 50 something and looking at retirement in the next decade. I have never in my lifetime seen the mess we are in right now and the slope we are quickly going down. It is only a matter of time, and I think very soon, that WDW, DCL, the travel industry, cruises and other disposable income outlets are going to feel the impact of this economy. This bubble Disney has been riding, IMO, is going to hit a brick wall and hit it soon.

That interest rate hike will do nothing to curb inflation. They would need to raise it to the inflation rate, but they won't do that the market would crash and so would the global economy. The Euro is on life support as it is. They will raise interest rates every month at the same time continuing to inflate to the moon on the next crisis... Ukraine. You know crisis, after crisis, after crisis, after crisis.
They issue debt through one door and buy it back through another and here we are. Oh did I mention them propping up the housing market by buying mortgage back securities....don't get me started I could rant for hours? That was so off-topic, but it felt good.

Back to WDW. I think two years from now they will be begging for customers similar to 2009, but worse.

 

[JLTraveling]

So what you are saying, if I understand you correctly, is that if The Mouse gave Chapek the boot, and Goofy rigged Chapek golden parachute, and the new CEO focused on Disney like Walt Disney’s core values you would return, and bring your money with you?

Is that correct ?

Of course. I'm not a stockholder, so I could give a crap about Chapek's golden parachute. And while I think the prices are insanely stupid, I can afford them. So for me, it comes down to the guest experience. Return to a focus on the core values, and they'll win me back.

 

[720L]

We won't be renewing ours. Disney isn't "Disney" anymore. The parks just don't have the same feel anymore. Magical CMs are few and far between. I hate Genie. The food is now meh. One thing is the parks are still very clean, but that's all I see of the Disney I used to love.

 

[Christine]

This whole thread is so interesting. I would say that I'm also in the process of a long, slow divorce. It really bums me out because I actually thought I would spend the rest of my life visiting Disney every few years. My kids are adults now so the "need" is not as much, but personally I still love being there. I've been going since the 1970s--it's just in me. My last good trip was in November 2019 and even then it was "sliding" a bit. I spent way too much time on the app during the day, the parking fees were high (I always have a car there). The park reservation thing, the constant crowds, and now Genie + versus fast passes (which I didn't like the electronic fast pass system, but did like the first version of fast pass), just all sort of sucks the fun out of it for me. But if you're of a younger generation, never been, you would never know the difference.

I recall when Magical Express was added. I was never concerned because I always rent a car but I was a bit peeved because that added ME along with a nice price hike in the resort costs--so they built that cost in. Which I paid for and never used ME. Of course when they dropped it last year, I didn't see them scaling back on resort costs. Of course.

It's definitely turned into an obvious money grab/profit venture...which it ALWAYS was but I think they used to know how to better balance that against guest experience.

 

[dvcgirl67]

That interest rate hike will do nothing to curb inflation. They would need to raise it to the inflation rate, but they won't do that the market would crash and so would the global economy. The Euro is on life support as it is. They will raise interest rates every month at the same time continuing to inflate to the moon on the next crisis... Ukraine. You know crisis, after crisis, after crisis, after crisis.
They issue debt through one door and buy it back through another and here we are. Oh did I mention them propping up the housing market by buying mortgage back securities....don't get me started I could rant for hours? That was so off-topic, but it felt good.

Back to WDW. I think two years from now they will be begging for customers similar to 2009, but worse.

I googled "Disney Parks Discounts 2009"....I'll post the link below, but this is the headline and blurb from the NYT

"With Attendance Off, Disney is Dealing"

IF you’ve long put off your kids’ entreaties to take them on a Disney vacation because of an aversion to long lines, high prices and throngs of mouse-eared fans, you may soon be running out of excuses.

Attendance at Disney’s theme parks in the United States began to slip in the last part of 2008, dropping about 5 percent compared with a year earlier. To keep guests coming through the turnstiles in 2009, the company is rolling out deals not seen in years.

In Florida, the Walt Disney World Resort is offering a seven-night vacation package at one of its 23 on-site hotels for the price of four, including admission to the park itself. That means a family of four could stay at a Disney-value resort like the Pop Century Resort for $1,375 in late April a savings of $416. While there are a few blackout dates, the bargain has recently been extended for travel through Aug. 15. Guests who book the deal for travel in early or late March also receive a $200 gift card for Disney merchandise or dining."

It says "package"....so I'm assuming that meant tickets as well? And they threw in $200 if you booked for March. So, that's a pretty good deal for back then....and they offered that when park attendance dropped 5 percent. And this was when unemployment was around 8.3%....beginning to come back down from the high of 9.9%. Currently we have unemployment in the 3.6% range...wages are up....but not outpacing inflation, giving workers an effective 2.4% pay cut last year. I do think inflation will have an impact on Disney, but it's one thing for a person to have a minor "pay cut" due to inflation, it's quite another for them to have a total pay cut when they lose their job. Disney has always had incredible pricing power, and that will certainly wane a bit in this environment.

Rather than deep discounts like above...I can see Disney starting out by doing something like...."book for a stay in 2023, and get Genie+ for free for a family of four... a $560 value!!!"......effectively "giving" you something that was free in the very recent past.

Here's the link from the above paragraph...

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/travel/22pracdisney.html

 

[Stratman50th]

We were never the type to visit WDW yearly, instead looked forward to returning maybe every 3 to 5 years. After our visit in 2013 we realized the changes being made complicating how to tour the parks, the serious lack of capacity in comparison to the expanding crowds, and the diminishment in overall quality of the entire resort meant it was no longer the place we looked back on fondly and the current configuration didn't hold any appeal.

For sometime I held out hope that the changes might cause attendance to flag and trigger a positive course correction. I've since come to terms with the realization that any drop in attendance is almost certainly unlikely to trigger the kinds of changes we would find appealing, and would in fact be more likely to spur the sale of the property altogether, likely in a financial distress scenario. For us the good old days of WDW are gone. I hope those still visiting and those yet to come enjoy their visits, because I recognize they're paying handsomely for the privilege and putting up with way more hoop jumping and hassle than I would ever care to in order to visit a theme park. I wish the eager new visitors could experience the quality, guest-forward experience we looked forward to in the past.

Well said.

 

[john7994]

I googled "Disney Parks Discounts 2009"....I'll post the link below, but this is the headline and blurb from the NYT

"With Attendance Off, Disney is Dealing"

IF you’ve long put off your kids’ entreaties to take them on a Disney vacation because of an aversion to long lines, high prices and throngs of mouse-eared fans, you may soon be running out of excuses.

Attendance at Disney’s theme parks in the United States began to slip in the last part of 2008, dropping about 5 percent compared with a year earlier. To keep guests coming through the turnstiles in 2009, the company is rolling out deals not seen in years.

In Florida, the Walt Disney World Resort is offering a seven-night vacation package at one of its 23 on-site hotels for the price of four, including admission to the park itself. That means a family of four could stay at a Disney-value resort like the Pop Century Resort for $1,375 in late April a savings of $416. While there are a few blackout dates, the bargain has recently been extended for travel through Aug. 15. Guests who book the deal for travel in early or late March also receive a $200 gift card for Disney merchandise or dining."

It says "package"....so I'm assuming that meant tickets as well? And they threw in $200 if you booked for March. So, that's a pretty good deal for back then....and they offered that when park attendance dropped 5 percent. And this was when unemployment was around 8.3%....beginning to come back down from the high of 9.9%. Currently we have unemployment in the 3.6% range...wages are up....but not outpacing inflation, giving workers an effective 2.4% pay cut last year. I do think inflation will have an impact on Disney, but it's one thing for a person to have a minor "pay cut" due to inflation, it's quite another for them to have a total pay cut when they lose their job. Disney has always had incredible pricing power, and that will certainly wane a bit in this environment.

Rather than deep discounts like above...I can see Disney starting out by doing something like...."book for a stay in 2023, and get Genie+ for free for a family of four... a $560 value!!!"......effectively "giving" you something that was free in the very recent past.

Here's the link from the above paragraph...

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/travel/22pracdisney.html

Disney already offered nominal discounts this year for Disney Card Holders and Disney + subscribers - both for obvious reasons. They may not have been as "rich" as past offers, but they were out there. And from various reports (on the Disboards), they were snapped up immediately.

 

[kymom99]

I googled "Disney Parks Discounts 2009"....I'll post the link below, but this is the headline and blurb from the NYT

"With Attendance Off, Disney is Dealing"

IF you’ve long put off your kids’ entreaties to take them on a Disney vacation because of an aversion to long lines, high prices and throngs of mouse-eared fans, you may soon be running out of excuses.

Attendance at Disney’s theme parks in the United States began to slip in the last part of 2008, dropping about 5 percent compared with a year earlier. To keep guests coming through the turnstiles in 2009, the company is rolling out deals not seen in years.

In Florida, the Walt Disney World Resort is offering a seven-night vacation package at one of its 23 on-site hotels for the price of four, including admission to the park itself. That means a family of four could stay at a Disney-value resort like the Pop Century Resort for $1,375 in late April a savings of $416. While there are a few blackout dates, the bargain has recently been extended for travel through Aug. 15. Guests who book the deal for travel in early or late March also receive a $200 gift card for Disney merchandise or dining."

It says "package"....so I'm assuming that meant tickets as well? And they threw in $200 if you booked for March. So, that's a pretty good deal for back then....and they offered that when park attendance dropped 5 percent. And this was when unemployment was around 8.3%....beginning to come back down from the high of 9.9%. Currently we have unemployment in the 3.6% range...wages are up....but not outpacing inflation, giving workers an effective 2.4% pay cut last year. I do think inflation will have an impact on Disney, but it's one thing for a person to have a minor "pay cut" due to inflation, it's quite another for them to have a total pay cut when they lose their job. Disney has always had incredible pricing power, and that will certainly wane a bit in this environment.

Rather than deep discounts like above...I can see Disney starting out by doing something like...."book for a stay in 2023, and get Genie+ for free for a family of four... a $560 value!!!"......effectively "giving" you something that was free in the very recent past.

Here's the link from the above paragraph...

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/travel/22pracdisney.html

I’m glad you found this article. We went in 08 and 10 for our last big trips. In fall if 09 I got a pin code. Remember those? I got CBR preferred room in June 2010 for $132 a night. This was after the new pirate themed pool opened. My step daughter went with us. They chose a package which gave them a $750 gift card. I believe that was also the trip we had the give a day/get a day tickets. We redeemed at guest services and added on days for the rest of our trip. Hoppers were maybe $40 pp for the whole trip. Parking was free for resort guests. We had a fabulous time and a great deal cost wise. 12 years later and the costs have doubled.

 

[Stratman50th]

Disney and I had been growing apart for years. I loved our Disney vacations, the memories, the nostalgia. It started for me with their money grubbing. By 2012 I was done. This was after years of going at least once and sometimes multiple times since 1989. I told my wife I wasn't going any more.
FF to December of 2018. Friends of ours had a site at Fort Wilderness and wanted us to join them. We were there for 5 days, 4 nights and bought a 3 day park hopper. The parks were just as much a disappointment as I had remembered. We only used two days on our tickets. I did however enjoy my stay at the Fort immensely. There was enough to do that we didn't need the parks. Maybe there was hope? We went again in May 2019 to use the last day on our tickets for the Flower and Garden. Enjoyed the Fort, EPCOT not so much.
I had virtually met a bunch of people here on the Fort Wilderness camping forum. I don't know how the rest of the forums are but most of the core folks in the camping forum are awesome, true friends, and have meet ups at different locations besides Fort Wilderness. We had a DISmeet in October of 2020. Everything was closed or limited. (The pools were open but numbers were restricted). You had to wear a mask once you left your campsite, outside, with nobody around. I had never seen the place so deserted. We had to wear a mask, in our golf cart, 50yards from another human, at 20mph. No thanks. That was the end for my wife and I both. There are other places to go and see. I did drive over to the campground to meet with some of the group who were having a mini DISmeet last January. We had lunch and I drove back home.
Lastly, I'm a Florida resident and I object to Disney's involving themselves in local politics. That would be my opinion, not subject to change or discussion I just mention it because it is another reason for the "divorce".
Sorry this was so long but there were pieces I felt needed to be tied together in order to make sense.

 

[Jonfw2]

Here’s the main issue: people have more cash than they've ever had in history and they've been cooped up in their houses for two years. They're willing to pay far more for an experience like Disney than they would normally. That will even out over time.

 

[RamblingMad]

Here’s the main issue: people have more cash than they've ever had in history and they've been cooped up in their houses for two years. They're willing to pay far more for an experience like Disney than they would normally. That will even out over time.

I agree. Consumers are shifting from goods back to services again and travel is a big one.

Until I see attendance numbers down in the parks, I'm not worried about it. However, what I haven't seen locally is a return back to the theatre. Now, this might be regional, but the movies I have seen in the theatre have been in mostly empty theatres save for the last Spider-man movie. The box office is where I see Disney feeling pain, not the parks.